Earth news

5.2 Earthquake In Northern California

April 30, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The latest earthquake to strike the US is, like most of them, associated with the Juan de Fuca plate. This one is the biggest so far and was very near to Mt. Shasta, an active volcano of the Cascades system. There are no fault lines near where this latest shake occurred. But if we look at earthquake maps, we can see clearly over time that the quakes are growing rapidly in number and violence. The section of the San Andreas between LA and San Jose is nearly totally frozen and doesn't even have micro shakes: a very bad sign. The Juan de Fuca plate is directly responsible for volcanic activity as well as a springboard for great quakes to the south. Also, the hinge between North and South America has been hammered by significant but sub-7.0 mag quakes this past month. The chances of a major event rises.

Magnitude-5.2 earthquake hits mountainous area of California

A moderate earthquake has hit a mountainous region of Northern California. There are no immediate reports or injury or damage.
The U.S. Geological Survey says a magnitude-5.2 temblor struck at 8:03 p.m., centered about 11 miles southeast of the town of Willow Creek in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest.

Shasta County Sheriff's Detective Mark Haslam says the department has received no calls about the earthquake.

The fact that this happened where there are no faults is problematic. I suspect the stresses caused by the North American plate overriding the Juan de Fuca plate is causing these things to jerk violently. Even if we see the Juan de Fuca plate going under at the subduction zone where the plates meet, the plate going under doesn't vanish, it actually probably folds and flops under the continental plate. It trails downwards through the mantle according to recent research. This under-the-continent folding process destabilizes the geology of the continent and thus, we get volcanoes. I suppose this is due to the folds causing flexing below the 10 km level of the continent and the fissures and cracks created by this opens up space for lava to gush out. This is due to a classic 'between a hot mantle and a hot ocean plate' situation.

Volcanoes have this habit of snoozing for long, long times. Then, they shake and rattle. Sometimes this fades. But all too often, it ends with a loud roar or a terrible blast. Some of the richest lands are around volcanoes which process new mineral wealth into the continental plates or onto islands. But the turnover in life forms is severe. Everything is destroyed and then life creeps back in, bit by bit.

I went to Mount St. Helen's two years after the eruption there. The landscape was as barren as Antarctica and just as dazzlingly white. Today, trees and animals have slowly returned and will build their lives there until they are all wiped out yet again.

The coast adjacent to the Juan de Fuca plate is scoured of all life, too, regularly. These tsunamis are caused by underwater changes in the landscape as the North American continent lurches over the plate being squeezed ruthlessly by the Pacific plate which is being shove northwards by an out of control Australian/Indian plate. Even as the Indian half slows down as it plows into Asia, Australia is still shooting forwards faster than any plate on earth, by far.

‘Sonic boom’ preceded 5.2 quake near Burnt Ranch

“It was sort of like a sonic boom,” said Brenda Simmons of SkyCrest Lake resort in Burnt Ranch. “It was a very loud noise before the house started shaking. It was pretty scary, the biggest thing I’ve ever felt here. (It) lasted 10 seconds max. I didn’t feel the aftershock.”

I have been in quakes before and never heard any 'boom' sounds. I wonder about this. It wasn't a quake due to two plates grinding on each other. This was more like the New Madrid Quake where people reported loud booms like distant cannon fire. I wonder if this is due to a drum-like effect of the earth rising and falling? Interesting subject.

Is Mount Shasta a potentially dangerous volcano?

Our studies tell us a lot about how Mount Shasta has behaved in the past, going back as far as an older volcano that was destroyed by an enormous landslide about 300,000 years ago and coming up to our own experiences of recent debris flows. Have we come to some conclusions about whether Mount Shasta is dangerous? Yes, we have.

It seems fair to assume that Mount Shasta's most likely future activity will be similar to its past behavior. We know that it has undergone periods of major cone building; these were periods of nearly continuous lava-flow eruptions and associated explosive and other disruptive events that lasted for centuries or millennia. If some of these events were to occur in the future, they are likely to affect nearby communities, air routes and other transportation corridors in the area, and rivers that head on the volcano. Clearly, future eruptions pose a potential danger to people. We also know the volcano generates debris flows every now and then and these are capable of causing serious damage along streams draining the volcano even without an eruption. At the same time, we think that repetition of the most drastic past event that we know about—a catastrophic landslide that destroyed ancestral Mount Shasta—while possible, is rather unlikely.

Finally, we know that Mount Shasta is an active volcano—it erupted only about 200 years ago and has erupted many times in the past few thousand years. According to our studies, the volcano has erupted on average at least once every 600 years in the past 4,500 years. With such an active record of recent volcanism, we have every reason to think it will erupt again.

When Mt. St. Helen's blew up, the geological survey didn't take it all too seriously until much too late. The State of Washington was furious when the geologists tried to remove park visitors. Quite a few tourists died when this one blew up. Not to mention, scientists. These volcanoes are not like Iceland or Hawaii, these tend to blow their tops.

Here are a list of volcano web cams in the Cascade system.

Click here to see Mt. Shasta Live.

Here are some USGS government maps:

This is a map of California and Nevada, screen shot taken today. I have watched this map for several years. I have not seen, even ONCE, so many micro quakes at once, across the entire region! Not even close! Nevada is shivering as if this is January and the top and bottom of the San Andreas is trembling like an aspen in a violent windstorm. Seen close up or from afar, it is striking how shaky things are this month.

2.0 2008/04/29 22:08:14 40.875N 123.445W 17.3 21 km (13 mi) E of Willow Creek, CA
2.4 2008/04/29 20:54:38 40.838N 123.490W 26.3 18 km (11 mi) ESE of Willow Creek, CA
2.0 2008/04/29 20:08:05 40.899N 123.390W 5.0 25 km (16 mi) E of Willow Creek, CA
5.2 2008/04/29 20:03:06 40.837N 123.499W 28.5 18 km (11 mi) ESE of Willow Creek, CA

Here is a close up of the latest quake as well as the data. These quakes are all at the very dangerous 10 km level. There is no evading this fact: the biggest quakes are generated at this vital level!

We can see from the bigger planetary map, the Aleutian Islands have had some major quakes. And all of Asia has been incredibly active since the Boxing Day Great Quake.

And this map shows how the quakes are creeping northwards from Panama. Geologists are finally beginning to issue some warnings. But as usual, California is snoozing and won't wake up unless Mother Nature gives us a huge shaking. And we know that this usually happens at a bad time. If we think we are seeing housing problems now, just wait until a quake renders a huge number of homes worthless! And in the most expensive sector of the US economy outside of Manhattan's Tri State Region and DC!

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Life After People and How the Earth Was Made

April 27, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Recently a History TV publicist contacted me and asked if I would write a review of two of the shows they sell online, 'Life After People' and 'How the Earth Was Made.' They kindly sent me two DVDs and my husband and I sat down and enjoyed both shows immensely. Of course, I love any science or history shows from the get-go! Call me unbiased! These two productions utilize a number of scientists, experts and writers to explore their topics. And as I keep on saying, to understand the future, we must understand the past! And imagining a different world is good for the mind, it forces us to face reality. I do recommend these two DVDs, they make great presents.

Here is a one of the more dramatic scenes from 'Life After People' via You Tube:

Even if one can see this on You Tube, it is like looking at a movie through a pin hole. Watching this on our widescreen TV, on the other hand, was quite dramatic as well as clear as a bell. It is worth seeing it full screen, of course. As we watched 'How the Earth Was Made,' we discussed the science behind the show. Most of the time, television has to show 'mainstream' science and cutting edge information is either too recent or too controversial for inclusion in a project meant to be viewed for a number of years. But today's radical notion is tomorrow's consensus. The History people told the story of the creation and development of the earth and all its many life forms via dramatization as well as showing the history of human discoveries that led to understanding the forces of nature and the past of this planet.

Of course, this in itself is worthy of a long epic movie. I was a child when the issue of plate tectonics was being heavily debated by geologists. I got to sit unobtrusively in the room as they discussed these matters with my father and his colleagues. My father spent a lot of time with geologists as they sought out appropriate mountains for building observatories. It was not uncommon for younger geologists to be very excited about plate tectonics and the elder professors were reluctant to accept this and spent much of their energy trying to deny it existed or trying to explain it away.

This was a very hot topic by 1959 due to the rising need to understand the geology of the moon. For the space race was very hot for political reasons and no one had the faintest idea what the moon was like! There was a huge debate about the possibility that it was very thick dust that would cause any craft to sink into it and not be able to make a return flight!

Then there was Mars: my grandfather, Edison Pettit, spent a number of years at Mount Wilson, studying Mars. When I was a child, I used to assist him in his last years, building spectrographs. This began a lifelong love of machine shops [where I have taught in the past]. The geology of Mars was very much Terra Incognita. And to understand Mars we had to understand the earth. This is why geologists and astronomers socialized and debated a great deal, as they still do today. I remember my grandfather telling me, 'The Earth is just another planet.'

For starters, here is the Wikipedia entry about the creation of water on this earth:

Water in the development of the Earth

When the earth was at the planetesimal stage, there was probably already water present. This water and other lightweight, fluid constituents such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrogen (N2) originated mostly from eruptions or outgassings of the primal earth and formed a young, water-vapour free primal earth atmosphere. These were, according to present models and simulations, carried away by the solar wind that at the time of the formation of the Earth was much stronger than today, and so escaped the Earth until it had about 40% its current radius (and gravity could retain the atmosphere).[1] Later through volcanism came the creation of a newer atmosphere, which may also have contained water-vapour released from the earth’s interior. With the development of a solid earth’s crust and further cooling down, the water vapour condensed and hence formed the first oceans.

The large amount of water that is present on the Earth in comparison to other earth-like bodies cannot be alone explained by that released from the earth’s interior. The planetesimals formed in a period of the early Solar system, when there was relatively little water around. The closer to the sun one was, the higher the temperature and the less water present. First, outside the solar ‘snow line’, which lay roughly where the Asteroid belt is today, water could be found in considerable abundance. Carbonaceous chondrites, which it is generally agreed formed in the outer reaches of the asteroid belt, indicate a water content of sometimes more than 10% of their weight, whereas common chondrites or enstatite chondrites from the nearer regions of the asteroid belt comprise less than 0.1% of their weight in water.. Moreover it can be supposed that during the accretion of the planetesimals into planets and the loss of the primitive atmosphere would result in the larger proportion of the originally present water being lost. Hence it is in many cases assumed that the majority of the water present on the Earth today came from the outer regions of the Solar System.

The DVD discusses the beginning of the earth and how water was created. As I watched, I said, 'Impossible. It couldn't possibly all condensed out of the formation of the mantle and the continental land masses! There is far too much water!

And this reminded me of my grandfather: He hoped that Mars had water locked in the ice or under the dirt via permafrost. He could see it had a thin atmosphere. He said, 'If our atmosphere was a little more colorful, we would look more like Jupiter or Saturn.' This is, our atmosphere is virtually invisible. We see it as a soft glow from space. Venus has a colorful, dense atmosphere and it conceals the hard core just like the gas giants.

So I presume that we had a ball of gas or maybe, even a ring like so many of the gas giants seem to have, 600 million years ago or more. And the gases that enclosed the earth were nitrogen, hydrogen and even dioxides and sulfurs. Some came broiling out of the hot planet but a lot of the gases were part of the huge gas cloud that gave birth to our sun. As granddaddy liked to say, 'The Sun is just a mid-sized star!' Here is an older story I did about the possibility that the earth may have had rings that were a mix of the components for our present oceans:

Saturn's Rings Are Made From Ice Pulled From Moon, Encaladus

The source of Saturn's rings seems to be one of the moons which is mostly H2O. The side of the moon facing Saturn has water volcanoes that shoot out a fine mist which is why the rings are so etheral.
*snip*
One of the most beautiful sights in the solar system. As one can observe here on earth, fine ice crystals light up so brilliantly, when it is below zero at night and only stars are shining, the sparkling ice crystals light up dark fields so much one can walk around safely in the faintly lit snow.

I always wondered how the rings, so thin and fragile, keep going and it probably is because of the feed coming from this moon. All the moons near the giant planets seem to be very active due to the intense interaction with the planets that hold them captive. One wonders if the moon did this with the earth when it orbited much closer. Did the moon, too, have water? Did this water fall to the earth over a billion years and during that time, did the earth, too, have a lovely ring around it? Questions like these are quite an interesting concept because we can only guess what went on so long ago. The fact that our planet has successfully captured a great deal of water and manages to keep it is most amazing when considering the probabilities of this happening. All the accidental happanstances of our good forture is why we were able to evolve into water consuming, water retaining life forms!

Much of 'How the Earth Was Made' is a good chronicle of how life altered the planet immensely. There is a lot of speculation about the great temperature changes the planet goes through. Many astronomers are beginning to think much of this is the sun being a variable star. So the many Ice Ages are a combination of the location of the floating continental land masses being in various key locations. For example, if they all collide at either pole, this causes a huge Ice Age and if they are strewn along the equator, it warms up the planet. But the suddenness of many of the Ice Age events probably have to do with changes in the sun's energy output. Scientists are still amassing information about this. Often, from ice cores.

I am glad this show talks about this business as well as leaving the door open on the topic. For it is very much unsettled! The change in the atmosphere's gases are significant. But the bellweather here remains the sun itself. It rules the roost. Here is another story I published in the past:

Global warming has several elements three of which are key: relative distance from the sun, composition of the atmosphere and how much energy the sun is producing.

For example, if the sun shuts down sunspot activity, it gets mighty cold here. The more active the sun, the hotter it gets. Add a lot of fresh CO2 to the atmosphere and you get really serious global warming. The summer of tremendous solar activity we had several years ago knocked out electricity across the planet. It also disrupted communications and it withered the trees, I know my oaks didn't like it one bit.

The causes of the great ice ages are still very sketchy. The more we learn the less we can pin down the exact causes. Since this planet and the sun are both very dynamic systems, this means there are so many variables, it is hard to know what the trigger is, exactly. All we know is, there is a definite rhythm and this pulse is probably triggered by the interaction of the sun and the seas.

One quibble I have about this show and nearly every show about dinosaurs: the mania to show dinosaurs as 'active' have gotten totally and stupidly out of control. They show long-necked, huge beasts rearing up on their hind legs, for example, as if they were ballerinas. I have handled quite a few very big mammals including a pair of oxen who were one of the biggest in America, Chip and Dale.

They never reared on their hind legs. They never had to bother. Their long tongues and huge size meant they could hook their sweeping horns over tree branches and bring them down and chomp on them. Elephants do this, too. In the circus, malicious humans can force elephants to squat or rise up on their hind legs but this is very unnatural. They much prefer to use their long noses. Just as giraffes like to simply use their long necks. They don't jump like kangaroos! The larger dinosaurs probably ambled about, taking their sweet time. The smaller ones scuttling aside to avoid being trampled. And trust me, big animals will trample underfoot. Chip and Dale, when confronted by say, a small car, would playfully hook a horn under the car and try to flip it over. And if they really wanted to chase something or someone, they could pick up quite a bit of steam but they much preferred to run downhill. And they are warm blooded animals!

Even warm blooded dinosaurs of huge size would not be very inclined to overexerting themselves. But this is a silly fad and I hope it fades in a few years. I can't wait.

'Life After People' is a great fun to watch. Seeing the Brooklyn Bridge or Golden Gate snap and fall or the Eiffel Tower tumble is very much like knocking over blocks or watching the ocean sweep away sand castles on the beach. I loved building these and then running around in excitement as the waves smash everything to smithereens. Or like the time my mom made us a gingerbread house in Arizona. It became hard as a rock in the 1% humidity climate. We couldn't gnaw it even if we were starving children eating the Wicked Witch's house! So we blew it up with firecrackers and then burned it! Fun, fun, fun!

We also liked the speculation that cats in Manhattan would evolve into Flying Cats just like we have Flying Squirrels. The battles between these aerial felines and rodents would be immense fun to watch. I know my cats would love to fly. Best way to hunt birds! Then there is the topic of cockroaches: will they rule in our stead? That is something we don't enjoy thinking about.

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Quakes Increasing In Western US

Map from IRIS
April 25, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Now there is an earthquake cluster slightly to the west of Reno, Nevada as well as more microquake clusters off shore of Oregon. A reader kindly gave us some more links to quake data which show clearly that the junction of plates offshore of Oregon are very active and I feel this indicates the potential for a large plate movement. The tectonic plates in this region tend to move with quite violent jerks because it is three, rather than two plates. Also, land subsidence in the West is another ongoing story.

We can see from the maps put online by IRIS, the US geological survey, the US is undergoing a series of earthquake events. Below the radar here are the many smaller earthquake clusters. All of California is being shaken nearly constantly by micro earthquakes. But these are increasingly showing up elsewhere, nearby. We notice over time that the Asian/Australian side of the Rim of Fire has been tremendously active with many, many earthquakes that have ranged from 9+ mag on down. Up until this month, the North American side has been totally quiet. Only the smallest of tremors. But this wasn't due to our continent being geologically stable.

It was due to everything being frozen in place. The West USA is very, very geologically active. It is one of the more geologically active regions on earth. Like Italy and the Himalayas or Sumatra or the African Rift Valley, it is not a quiet zone but the exact opposite. So when it went totally silent as the other side of the planet erupted with lurches and violent changes, this simply meant, the West USA is building up energy for the next Big Push Northwards of the Pacific and Juan de Fucas plates. The Juan de Fucas plate is nearly totally under the North American plate by now. It has crawled northwards starting down by Central America over the last several million years. And since this is in opposition to the movement of the North American landmass, this meant that it moves northwards in very violent jerks. North America inches westward very slowly in comparison.

Today, there was yet another cluster of earthquakes to the east of California's Central Valley. Reno, Nevada, had a series of micro quakes at the 5 km level. I notice that there have been a number of quake clusters very near the surface, all of which are at key points to the western side of the Rocky Mountains.

The government has been releasing some good reports about the quake clusters off the shores of Oregon. They sent out a ship and loaded it with monitors to set on the sea floor. All my life, I have supported funding for geologists and their very, very important research just as we need better and better monitoring of the weather and astronomers who can track the universe for us. The deadliest forces we face are natural: meteorite strikes, variations in solar energy, solar storms, earthquakes and volcanoes, etc. One of the problems with the people who need a childish belief system is, the fundamentalists undermine these scientific observations of nature. They want a cardboard universe ruled by capricious gods who pick and choose who to protect.

We also have greedy people who want to ignore or misunderstand natural processes just like they willfully ignore the truth and reality of money making. They gain personal power and wealth by building rickety housing right on top of major fault lines or next to active volcanoes. Mother Nature laughs at this but the victims tend to be the poor people who are conned into buying property and then living in fatal situations.

2008 Oregon Offshore Earthquakes:

4/24/2008 Update:
R/V Wecoma returns to Newport. 11 CTD casts are being analyzed for final results in NOAA Vents laboratories. Hydrophone remains on seafloor to continue monitoring seismic activity. Figure 1 (below) updated to show final cruise track and seismicity at both sites. Northern Gorda seismicity histogram chart and time vs. latitude plot now available.

Click here for a movie showing how the earthquake cluster began off shore from Oregon;

It is worth while to watch these little movies. They show how the quakes suddenly start and then rattle onwards.

Click here for the Gordo cluster of earthquakes that are south of the first quakes:

Queen, Arizona, fissure warning tire.

Now on to the business of water extraction out West and how it is increasing subsidence which I fear ends up causing other greater geological problems. The abuse of water out West is legendary. Water use is far above the sustainable levels Nature allows. More and more people pour into the dry West seeking to live water-logged lives as if they are living in wet England or Northern Europe. The lifestyle of desert people is disregarded. Instead of dry toilets, we have water flush systems, just for example. All my life, when I grew up out there and beyond, I have warned that this is totally inappropriate for the region. Arizona was named 'dry area' for a good reason! Our ancestors considered the Great Plains to be a desert and the Arizona desert to be hell. But during the Great Depression, the government built giant Hoover Dam. And the west burst into flower. But we knew this was temporary. As more and more dams were built, cities also pumped water out of the earth below.

When my great granddaddy rode his calvary horse about Arizona chasing after Apache raiders, desert grasses grew half the year. I remember when we got hay from farmers in my own childhood. But today, the desert is amazingly dry. The water table that supported many a stream like the Santa Rita or the Tanque Verde has collapsed so far down, these year-round sources of water in my mother's youth are dry as bones and only flow during storms and that, only for a few hours.

I remember my own childhood when they still flowed and we used to build rafts and pole up and down the streams in winter.

Hazardous Cracks Running Through Arizona
Ray Harris and M. Lee Allison

The fissures were not news, however, to geologists. For more than 40 years, geologists have warned people about the hazards of earth fissures in Arizona, but until recently the warnings often went unheeded. In the past, earth fissures were considered an interesting phenomenon, but because they occurred mostly in undeveloped areas where few people lived, they were not perceived as a problem. But with the population expanding in recent years into areas known to have fissures, the potential for damage to property has increased, particularly with old fissures being filled in, concealing the potential risk.

New residents may be completely unaware that earth fissures lurk below their yards or under their homes, but with new mapping efforts and education, short-term solutions are possible. The issue today is less a problem of earth fissures forming where people have built houses than it is of people building houses on or near fissures without knowing it. Making people aware of the issue is the first step. In the long run, however, people may need to change their groundwater usage habits to curb the problem.

Earth fissures occur not only in Arizona, but also in other basins where the groundwater table has dropped precipitously due to overpumping. Fissures are a serious problem in the Las Vegas area, occur in southern Utah, California and western Texas, and have been recently reported in the small province of Aguascalientes in Mexico, where 200 homes and a hospital are reported damaged.

An earth fissure at the surface results from large quantities of soil or sediment being washed down into a crack that may initially be only a few centimeters wide, but a hundred meters or more deep and a kilometer or more in length. The longest fissure zone mapped in Arizona has a length of more than 11 kilometers. The condition that leads to the fissures is sinking land.

All over the West including California, of course, land is subsiding. California pumps water INTO the earth to keep this from getting worse, but this is yet more water taken from overtaxed river systems. Salmon fishing is collapsing due to the change in river flow rates and temperatures due to this meddling in water tables. The rise and fall of the land due to water use is so striking, it is making it more difficult for geologists to track earthquakes, for example. The land heaves and sighs.

Las Vegas Valley: Land Subsidence and Fissuring Due to Ground-Water Withdrawal

John W. Bell
Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology

Rapidly growing populations in the semiarid to arid regions of the southwestern United States require water. The water is used not only for basic needs (drinking, sewage systems, etc.), but also to maintain lifestyles transferred from wetter areas of the country (suburban lawns, golf, backyard swimming pools). These uses can be met either by purchases of surface water in an already over-allocated water-supply system (e.g., the Colorado River) or, most readily, by tapping ground water. However, ground-water withdrawal can adversely affect the sedimentary deposits that fill typical ground-water basins in the desert. These effects include differential compaction, reactivation of old faults, and surface fissuring, and can have considerable impact on human infrastructures

In Arizona and Nevada, this drop in the land is more problematic. It causes the earth to flatten out more and more and compress more and more. So less and less water can accumulate even in wet years. I did a lot o digging in Arizona as well as the Northeast USA. Up here, the land is riddled with water channels. This is why we have 'spring'. Literally, the water springs out of the sponge-like earth in spring as the frozen ground melts. One can actually see the channels if you carefully cut away a hillside.

In the dry deserts, the ground has far fewer such holes. It never freezes but it has to let water soak in more like a heavy towel than a sponge. And if it is totally dry, the caliche which is the mineral side effect of water soaking in and leaving lots of mineral content behind, is more like cement. This forces water to run downhill rather than soak in. Thus the mighty floods. The opening of cracks during floods shows that the water is very desperate to find some way into the soil.

Pumping of groundwater spurs surge in earth fissures

The number of earth fissures spreading across Southern and Central Arizona due to excessive water pumping is approaching 300, a top state geologist said Monday.
The Arizona State Geological Survey's office released maps showing that earth fissures are proving an increased safety risk to homeowners, as development expands into areas where fissures date back to the 1940s or '50s and in some cases to the 1920s.

Authorities have warned for decades that continued land subsidence from groundwater pumping can open up huge fissures. The warnings have increased in intensity in recent years as more homes are built atop old fissures, particularly in rapidly growing Pinal County between Tucson and Phoenix.
*snip*
Joan Etzenhouser of the Queen Creek area first thought the cracks on her property were "just part of the landscape" when they started to appear in 2004 and 2005, one to two years after she moved into the home.
Then, in August 2005, heavy rains left behind openings in three fissures, one running under her home and all three running across a wash.

Etzenhouser is suing the real estate agent and family that sold her and her husband the home on the grounds that they didn't disclose the fissure problem.

"I'm angry. I'm frustrated. I feel like I trusted people … the owner that sold me the home had to have known, known that there were weird things on this property other than scorpions and coyotes," said Etzenhouser, who lives on 3.3 rural acres.

Realtor John Richins, who represented the family that sold this home, declined to discuss the suit except to say that there were no fissures at the time the ground was sold: "I'm 66 years old. I've been a Realtor 25 years and I've never been sued in my life until now."

In Arizona as well as the entire West, basic weather and geological systems are studiously ignored when builders are given permits. So they build houses on flood plains that get totally destroyed in the inevitable 50 or 100 year floods. They build on fault lines. They build where there isn't enough water. They built too much and too many where it can't be supported by natural conditions. They love to ignore things. The West's landscape isn't very forgiving. Now, there are no more farms in West Tucson, there are no canals flooding orchards in Scottsdale like where I used to swim as a child. The green revolution there is turing into a Dust Bowl nightmare. It takes time but the green golf courses that dot the desert are doomed.

Most of the realtors out West should be sued. And the builders. And the politicians. And the voters who wanted everyone to ignore reality. Reality always wins in the bitter end.

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More Significant Earthquakes Rattle Coast Of Oregon

April 24, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis

It is now quite clear that there will probably be a major earthquake event in the West. In the last 2 days, the Juan de Fuca Plate triple juncture with the Pacific Plate and the huge North American Plate has had a series of 4+ mag earthquakes and they are all definitely along the subduction complex lines. Since they are all at the same, very dangerous depths of 10 km and since they are all under 5 mag, this means there has been hardly any real movement, just creaking and shaking. These look increasingly, due to their uniformity and constant action, to be a precursor for a significant movement of the plates which are stuck, right now. Land masses can shoot in various directions quite suddenly, in a matter of seconds. These are the 9+ quakes we all must brace ourselves to expect. Pretending this is a remote possibility is not recommended.

Click here for the IRIS global maps:

Several things jump out from this chart: the massive number of earthquakes in the tri-focal point off the Oregon coast is moving relentlessly southwards towards the dangerous San Andreas fault system on land. Also, two 4 mag earthquakes occured in Nevada which is offset to the east, and Baja California where the San Andreas continues. Both of these were at only 5 km deep which is very shallow. Not as shallow as the 4 mags that hit Canada and the most geologically dangerous place on earth, Yellowstone Park. This mighty caldera is matched only by the super giants in Sumatra.

There now have been over 20 4+ magnitude quakes along the Pacific/Juan de Fuca/North American subduction zone juncture. This is very significant activity. Before the Great Boxing Day Quake, we saw a series of such 4 mag quakes along that subduction zone. The fact that these events are happening along a long line is very, very troubling. It means this is not a local adjustment and then all is well. It means that the entire length is under tremendous stress. The fact that these quakes are fairly uniform and at the same level is a sign that this sector will suddenly move. The quakes are NOT moving anything right now, this is like when we shove something until it snags on a rough spot on the ground so we redouble our pushing and it suddenly shoots forwards.

So the Juan de Fuca plate which has the longest name for the smallest plate on earth, this will continue to be shoved under the North American continent but we know it isn't that simple. It is riding SIDEWAYS and is being shoved NORTHWARDS as it is also being ridden over by the North American continental plate which is moving relentlessly eastwards as the Atlantic plate continues to grow in the center.

Map of tectonic plates from Moorland School:

There are two major drivers in global plate tectonics: the fast moving Australian plate which is shooting northwards at a strange, mad rate and the Atlantic rift zone that runs from the north pole to Antactica. This is widening at a very fast rate compared to say, Africa's movements northwards. The oddity of the Indian/Australian plate that is wrapping itself around Asia is shoving the Pacific Plate northwards and is riding up over it rapidly. Eventually, Australia will cartwheel into Siberia crushing Japan and Manchuria and Korea into mountains even higher than the Himalayans.

Anyone living along the San Andreas complex must consult with government agencies to see what one should do in case of the inevitable. Reviewing civil defenses and preparing the National Guard for this situation is of high importance. Homeland Security, run by an alien Israeli who doesn't care if we die, should be working on this. But of course, our National Guard is in Iraq or in tatters. So I must warn everyone out West: you are on your own just like New Orleans. NOTHING has been fixed since that disaster. Nothing has been changed, Chertoff goofed off then and wasn't arrested. He is goofing off now. And so it Bush, our media and the candidates for President. Do NOT forget that while New Orleans was dying, McCain was celebrating his wretched birth with Bush and they were singing and laughing.

They don't give a hoot. And movie superstars won't save anyone, either. Conan the Barbarian is owned by Real Estate interests. Note how he protected California from the housing bubble.

Maybe we won't have a massive earthquake. Maybe Mother Nature will sit and wait patiently. She has all the time in the world. But we know this will eventually happen just as it always happens like clockwork in Asia.

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North American Plate Shakes Harder

April 22, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The North American continent has been shaken this month by an increasingly worrisome number of earthquakes. A number of them have been at the top of the San Andreas fault system, the others have been concentrated at the New Madrid Fault region. Both of these faults are the worst earthquake hazards in the US. Then there have been some very strange, less than 1km deep quakes in Yellowstone, the most dangerous volcanic caldera in the entire hemisphere as well as at the lower end of the San Andreas and in the heartland of Canada. These events are being pushed by a very, very active Australian plate that has been shoving northwards faster than any continental plate on earth, on a scale of tens of times faster than the other continents. The chances of a major earthquake grows and should NOT be ignored by the many millions living in the chief hazard zones!

From IRIS, the government quake monitors.

Below is an IRIS chart showing the location, depth and power of these earthquakes. Note that the vast majority are where the triangle of plates intersect with the mighty North American plate. All these ocean plates are being shoved relentlessly under the North American plate by the engine of Australia that is chugging merrily northwards at an astonishing rate.

North America is an odd place. The western half of our continent which is, like Eurasia, a conglomeration of many old land masses that have floated around this planet for a billion years. This queer mix of land masses are of differing thicknesses and compositions. The eastern side of the continent was rammed into Africa many millions of years ago when life land was very young. This pushed up huge, towering mountains. These have worn down to comparatively small mini-mountains today. I live on top of such a former mountain. The plateau that rises upwards less than a mile away to the west of my own place is of a totally different geological mix than my side of Rt. 22 that runs down the fault line between the proto-North American continent and the African landmass which got stuck to North America back when dinosaurs ruled the roost.

For some reason and no one knows why, yet, even though the easter half of our continent has a compressed mountain area the whole length and the western half is extremely compressed and has one of the bigger mountain ranges on earth, the middle of the continent is very depressed and extremely prone to very violent but quite infrequent earthquakes. This has given people in half of the nation a false sense of security.

Looking at the map, I am quite alarmed about the San Andreas fault. This one is one of the three best-known fault on earth. It HAS to have periodic, huge earthquakes. This isn't a question. It is a fact. And these huge blow-outs come at least once every 50 years or so on various points along the fault line. The longer the wait between quakes, the worse it is when it happens. The irresponsibility of the entire culture that has build upon this mobile landmass is most astonishing as I will show in this article.

First, let's go back to the statistics: All of the quakes just off the ocean in Oregon are at the very dangerous level of 10 km. For some reason, this seems to be an important dividing line in the earth's crust. Quakes at this level can cause tremendous surface changes and tsunamis at sea. Then there are the three quakes this last few weeks that have occurred right at the surface! Yellowstone: any quakes there should make us sit up and notice. By far, it is the most dangerous thing on this planet. It is one of the most active and biggest calderas on earth. The destructive powers of this place is unparalleled. It can even beat out nuclear war on the scale of destruction it can do! The other place with a very dangerous caldera system is Indonesia. Humanity was nearly wiped out by a major explosion there 760,000 years ago. Humans, back then, just as today, preferred to live on the shores of the seas. The tsunami from that event wiped out a great number of humans. Then came the Long Winter. Humans that could figure out how to survive under these circumstances were our ancestors. The ability to make fire and use skins was quite valuable in the mid-latitudes. With this new skill, humans poured into the areas where the glaciers ruled during the last Ice Age.

Earth changes are the engine of human evolution. Not to mention, Mother Nature can re-arrange the earth's furniture and changes the temperature drastically.

The shaking along the curvature of Indonesia and across the prow of Australia plowing the Pacific northwards have been intensely active since the Great Boxing Day Quake. And the actions released by that mega-event are still at work. It will be several more years before the earth finishes this latest readjustment. Since I am more than a little worried about earthquakes, time to review how to protect ourselves. This advice is from Channel 5 in Oregon:

What to do before an earthquake

Know your safety zone and hazard locations

Find safe spots in each room – under a sturdy table or desk, against an inside wall where nothing can fall on you, or in a doorway.
Find the danger spots in each room – windows, fireplaces, tall, unsecured furniture, cupboards, hanging objects.

Eliminate the hazards

Know where and how to shut off all utilities.
Be sure your house is firmly anchored to its foundation.
Anchor overhead lighting fixtures.
Store bottled foods, glass, china and other breakables on low shelves or in cabinets.
Install strong latches on cupboards.
Place large or heavy objects on lower shelves.
Fasten shelves to walls. Bolt bookcases, china cabinets, and other tall furniture to wall studs.
Repair defective electrical wiring, leaky gas and inflexible utility connections.
Fasten water heater to wall studs

I advise people do this even in non-danger zones. I have all my things either anchored or set up so they won't endanger us if there is a problem. All my cans are at lap level or lower, for example. Bolting book cases and other things to the walls is highly recommended. Children climbing the outside of bookcases have been killed when this falls on them, just for example. As for storing water: you never know when you need emergency water and can't get it. When the Northeast had that huge, mysterious blackout several years ago, many people discovered they had no water. They had to buy it from the stores. Keeping good batteries, a battery-powered radio as well as covering any refrigerators or freezers with blankets during an outage is recommended. I didn't know this during the great NYC blackout in the mid-1970s. I lost all my food. Now, I toss a moving blanket over my appliances when there is an outage. Except we have alternative energy now and don't even notice these until we see the village below disappear into the darkness.

Gas can and does blow up. And it can burn down a city. The main hazard in earthquakes is fire. Now we come to yet another issue: food. Right now, the whole planet is being convulsed by the demons of inflation launched by the central bankers, it is now showing up as massive inflation and hoarding with food. And the one thing one should do is always have a store of food to survive. Stores are now restricting how much food one can buy due to a global shortage due to everyone hoarding to prevent paying for more inflation. But hoarding food is probably one of the smarter things one can do in preparation for a bad geological event.

This is why we should always track food inflation and bite it off at the beginning, not lie about it or refuse to track it. I am absolutely FURIOUS with our government for being so stupid. Anyway, a store of canned and dry goods is very good to have in emergencies and I am a big, big believer in having a good storehouse at home. Certainly, the Mormons do this.

Prepare a disaster supply kit for home and car. It should include:

First aid kit and essential medications
Canned food and can opener
At least three gallons of water per person
Protective clothing, rainwear, and bedding or sleeping bags
Battery-powered radio, flashlight, and extra batteries
Special items for infant, elderly, or disabled family members
Written instructions for how to turn off gas, electricity, and water if authorities advise you to do so (Remember, you'll need a professional to turn natural gas service back on.)
Keep essentials, such as a flashlight and sturdy shoes, by your bedside.
Keep copies of all important documents in a safety deposit box and keep the key with you.

Instructions for family members who are caught away from home in an earthquake are good. The main one is to NOT TRY TO COME HOME. But rather, to wait for contact. In general, every disaster I have experienced, everyone pulls together try to help strangers and will share food, water and shelter with total strangers. This is the most wonderful part of humanity. We are capable of being tremendously wonderful. It all depends on social factors such as not encouraging, enjoying or egging on, ethnic cleansing.

What to do during an earthquake

Drop, cover, and hold on. If you are indoors, get under sturdy furniture, if possible. Stay away from windows and objects that could fall. Do not go outdoors until shaking stops and you know that it is safe to move.

If you are in a high rise building, drop, cover and hold. It is possible that the sprinklers and fire alarm may go off. Try to stay in the building on the same floor - an evacuation may not be necessary. Wait for instructions from safety personnel as they will need to differentiate between serious structural damage and damage to contents or decorative elements. Do not use elevators.

If you are outdoors move to a clear area away from trees, signs, buildings, or electrical wires and poles. If you are on a sidewalk near a building, move away from any possible falling brick, glass, plaster and other debris. If possible take cover, stay low, and protect your head and neck.

If you are in car, pull over to the side of the road as quickly and safely as possible - but do NOT pull over and stop until you are clear of bridges, overpasses, power poles, and power lines.

Downed power lines are very dangerous. Even if the power is off, they are to be avoided. Another thing that is good to have is a supply of tarps. I lived in a tent for ten years. I am a big, big user of tarps. And ropes. With those, one can make a pretty fine structure. Certainly, it beats being stuck out in the open. Even if the house is sound, repeat earthquakes make it dangerous to be inside after a 9 mag quake.

Click here for the Berkeley Parents Network Advice about Earthquake Safety

Time to look at old newspapers! I am a big believer that our ancestors weren't stupid. But they do what we do: wonderful in emergencies, stupid in good times. So it is in California. My family has lived there since Mr. Baker went about the state, naming things in 1848. Being one of my ancestors. The earthquakes too them by surprise. But they figured, if they built smart, etc, all would be well. Unfortunately, people don't like listening to old timers so if there is no earthquake for 25 years, newcomers flood in and ignore the old timers. My grandaddy used to get grim amusement, warning newcomers to Pasedena about floods and earthquakes.

'See those houses? They are DOOMED,' he would say grimly with a smile. And sure enough, they would end up doomed. Here are some stories from a San Andreas quake in October, 1868:

San Francisco Morning Call Editorial
Thursday, October 22, 1868

The "Temblores"– They Prove the Strength
and Weakness of San Francisco.

The earthquake shocks of yesterday very naturally created a great amount of panic among the people of the city, being, as they were, the heaviest ever known in this portion of the American Continent. To say that there was not a great excitement, a "great scare," a panic, would be to assert what is not the truth. Under the circumstances it was but natural that people should be alarmed, and that great excitement should ensue; but the shakes of Wednesday served this good purpose: they prove at once the strength and weakness of the city.
Though, unfortunately, lives were lost, fortunately the earthquake showed us how to prevent the loss of life, and the little damage done (compared to what might have been done) proved that with a sensible system of building we have no more to fear from earthquakes than the people of other communities have to fear from hurricanes and floods.

That property was damaged to a considerable extent is true; it is also true that some lives were lost. That houses were destroyed was owing to the ignorance, greed, or stupidity of those who built them. The great majority of the brick buildings stood the shock without trouble. All would have done so had their builders exercised common sense and a proper regard for the welfare of the city. That lives were lost is owing to the insane policy of running buildings up to the height of four and five stories, and of covering them with fragile plaster ornaments.

As we said three years ago, we now say: the city authorities should prohibit the erection of buildings of more than thirty-five feet in height. They should also prohibit the erection of "fire-walls," and the other man-traps in the shape of cornices, brackets, and other "filigree" ornaments on buildings, which are not only offensive to good taste, but do endanger life.

The lives lost yesterday are not chargeable to the earthquake, but to the vanity, greed and meanness of those who erected the buildings. Yesterday's earthquake was undoubtedly the heaviest the city has ever experienced. It served to prove what we have all along contended was the fact, that a sensible system of building is only necessary to make this city as safe as any in the world.

When we consider the lives and property destroyed, we find that they are not as great as those sacrifices in the floods of Baltimore and New York, or in other visitations of Providence which have afflicted out sister cities of the Union. We have, therefore, reason to feel grateful for the immunities we have enjoyed, and the comparatively safe region and climate in which our fortunes have been cast.

Seeing the effects of this quake, they sensibly decided to have building codes and stop the construction of inappropriate buildings on landfills, for example. After more than 100 years, a bunch of people died in these landfills in San Francisco in the most recent quake. Due to population pressure, political corruption as builders bribe politicians to overturn sane building codes, the building of dangerous housing right on top of the San Andreas and other fault lines continues to this day. And building on landfills that turn to jelly continue! There is no stopping this.

And it is very sad, it shows how deliberately stupid we get when we see dollar signs.

After the earliest recorded quake in SF, they had this report:

Daily Morning Call
Friday, October 23, 1868

Board of Supervisors.

Resolved, That the Building Committee be requested to provide suitable rooms for the use of the various officers of the City Government, and report for the approval of this Board. Adopted.

Resolved, That the Fire Wardens are hereby requested to examine the fire-walls of those buildings which are in a dangerous condition, and notify the respective owners to immediately remove or secure the same, and erect or cause to be erected barricades in front of the same.

Dr. [R. Beverly] Cole, who came in at this moment thought that the resolutions adopted for the protection of property were not sufficiently comprehensive. He had with reluctance left an alarmed family, and his habitation, which had been nearly demolished. He desired that each member of the Board should be invested with the power to erect barricades around buildings in danger of being thrown down.

Supervisor Ashbury contended that every member had this power, but he did hope that none but architects and persons competent should be authorized to tear down walls or buildings.

See how organized they were? Yet, when the next one hit in 1906, the wild, out of control building all fell with a big boom and the flames did the rest.

UC Berkeley Earthquake Engineering

Daily Morning Call
Friday, October 23, 1868 How to Act in Case of an Earthquake.

As soon as people indoors feel the shock of an earthquake, they rush wildly for the streets, and in so doing they invariably court the danger they seek to avoid. Most of the casualties of Wednesday were thus occasioned. People should remember in any case, even though the worst may happen, they are safer indoors than out. The best place is near the doorway, as usually, the walls there would be the very last to fall. Whenever the walls of a building tumble down, they fall outwardly, and thereby endanger the lives of those who may be in the street, while those inside the walls escape unhurt.

Usually, no more than the walls of the upper story fall. Where the buildings are high, the falling débris reaches the middle of the street. Those in the lower stories of such buildings are as safe as they can be anywhere in a city, in case of an earthquake, and tenfold more safe than they would be if in the street. We know that it is impossible for most people to reflect coolly when a startling calamity overtakes them, but if they would school themselves beforehand they would be able to act in a cool and sensible manner in case of an emergency.

San Francisco Real Estate Circular
For the Month of October 1868

The Earthquake and Real Estate

The earthquake with its scares and panics is now one of the things that were. Since it occurred, hundreds of property owners have been anxiously watching to see what effect it would have upon our real estates. While many persons prophesied death and disaster to the city generally, few thought that the bad effect of the visitation would be anything but temporary on the value of real estate. But events have proved that it did not have a depressing effect upon property for even a day. Diligent enquiry among others, and our own observation, revealed not one solitary person who wished to sell any of his real estate, on the day of the earthquake, or since, at anything below the highest ruling rate. At twelve o'clock on that day, while the lesser shocks were still being felt, Messrs. Dore & Co. held an auction sale, at which the bidding was spirited and the prices obtained fully up to the average. Everybody expected to see this sale postponed, and when it was not no one thought that the auctioneer would have any bidders, but the latter was on hand as usual.

The late shock will undoubtedly have the effect of keeping the prices of lots upon made ground (city slip, water lots and South Beach property) stationary, if it does not actually make the retrograde. Only the best built and anchored houses are safe upon made ground, in such an earthquake as that of the 21st ult. Such buildings cost so much that tenants generally will not pay a rental that would yield the owner a fair income, and as long as this is true, owners who build to rent will not, unless otherwise compelled to, erect the best structures. But there is a prejudice against brick buildings upon made ground, even when they are built in the best manner, and this being the case, it seems hardly possible that a fall in prices of lots upon such ground can be avoided.

Previously to the late shake-up it was fully expected that the most bustling portion of the water front would be located east of First and south of Brannan street. But, if we do not forget the warning given us by the late visitation, the locality named must lose its supremacy. Heavy brick buildings are not safe upon made ground, and heavy warehouses are necessary to commerce. Such warehouses in future must not venture any nearer to the water than solid ground will allow them to go. The erection of large brick building upon swamps must be stopped. Land just inside of the high water mark certainly advance in price. Lots for residential purposes, all over the city, but especially on the outskirts and on rising ground, will receive an impetus in price, because many of those who have heretofore lived with their families in brick hotels, and in houses where furnished rooms are kept, will now purchase land and erect frame homesteads for their own occupancy upon them. Hotel keepers (a small class) will suffer by this change, but tradesmen generally and the real estate business will be greatly benefited. Children, too, will undoubtedly be better brought up in their parents' homes than they possibly be in the unhealthy atmosphere and associations of hotels.

To sum up: neither the real estate nor any other interest of the city has suffered by the earthquake, while the warning it has given us almost ensures us against future disasters from the partial falling of outside ornaments and badly constructed walls. we have all seen that our weakness lies in erecting large and slight brick buildings upon made ground; we have been taught to dispense with heavy outside ornamentation, which however desirable for show, must give way to necessity and the safety of human life; and finally, we think we may safely say that since we have not, during the twenty years occupation of California, had any dangerous shock of earthquake, we have pretty reliable proof that our State does not lie within the region of dangerous internal disturbance.

See? Within days of the 1868 quake, they knew that brick buildings, which are safer in fires, are NOT safer in earthquakes. Notice the sensible call to end heavy outside decorations...which went right over the cliff thanks to the Victorian mania for dense, marble and plaster massive decorations that were piled one on top fo the other. Note the old photo above: a wedding cake of massive exterior heavy decorations. Fashion always trumps sober care.

So good luck to everyone in earthquake zones! There is nothing one can do but pressure governments to have STRONG building codes. To pressure governments to set aside emergency funds! And to bring home our National Guard back to America! Good grief! After Katrina showed us very clearly why! Yet the National Guard still sits mired in the Mesopotamia Mess.

The Mississippi Valley in particular should demand their states do a thorough check of the security of buildings. This place is very underbuilt for earthquakes.

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Oregon In Tsunami Danger/San Andreas Fault In Danger

April 12, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis

I have been too busy to post earth news lately but Mother Nature is now possibly going to have yet another underwater violent event that can trigger many other violent events. One of the greater dangers on this planet besides the entire coast of all of Indonesia and much of Japan is the entire West Coast of the USA. I have been watching a series of fairly big jolts happen at the very, very dangerous level of 10 kilometers under the earth, along the southern coast of Oregon. This is the infamous 'Triple Juncture' where three huge plates converge and these create not only earthquakes but huge tsunamis and spectacular volcanic eruptions. Tonight, the jolts are migrating south towards the San Andreas Fault. Also, many micro earthquakes are happening in this juncture. Time to discuss the geology of the most dangerous parts of the USA.

Scientists Baffled by Unusual Swarm of Hundreds of Earthquakes Off Oregon Coast

Scientists listening to underwater microphones have detected an unusual swarm of earthquakes off central Oregon, something that often happens before a volcanic eruption — except there are no volcanoes in the area.

Scientists don't know exactly what the earthquakes mean, but they could be the result of molten rock rumbling away from the recognized earthquake faults off Oregon, said Robert Dziak, a geophysicist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Oregon State University.

There have been more than 600 quakes over the past 10 days in a basin 150 miles southwest of Newport. The biggest was magnitude 5.4, and two others were more than magnitude 5.0, OSU reported.

On the hydrophones, the quakes sound like low thunder and are unlike anything scientists have heard in 17 years of listening, Dziak said. Some of the quakes have also been detected by earthquake instruments on land.

The Great Boxing Day earthquake started the same way. I noticed not only a series of 3-5 mag earthquakes, there was this huge cluster of much lower earthquakes. Then the whole thing blew out. The Sumatra earthquake happened when there was a solstice as well as a full moon. The full moon this month will be April 20th.

Can the Moon Cause Earthquakes?

The Earth and moon are closest together—at perigee—once a month. The Earth and sun are closest together—at perihelion—once a year. Perihelion currently occurs in early January. Maximum gravitation force occurs when a syzygy and perigee occur on the same day as perihelion.

According to Berkland, seismometers left on the moon by Apollo astronauts show that moonquakes occur most frequently at perigee.

"So we know Earth's gravity triggers moonquakes. I don't think any scientist disputes that," Berkland said. "When I learned that, I went to my former [U.S. Geological Survey] colleagues in Menlo Park [California] and pointed out this really exists, so what's so difficult about turning it around?"

According to Berkland, the U.S. Geological Survey said such a theory is ridiculous—the Earth is 82 times more massive than the moon. Though the Earth can trigger quakes on the moon, they said, the moon is too small to trigger any earthquakes.

But the moon is mostly solid and lacks a liquid core like the Earth, Berkland said. The Earth "is an active, living planet, and so it is not at all surprising that minor gravitational stresses can trigger earthquakes," he said.

And Berkland is probably correct. Our planet is not a dead rock. It is very much 'alive'. Mars is not geologically alive. Venus is crushed by a vile atmosphere. But the earth is quite fluid. So fluid, even after a billion years, the land masses merrily float about the surface so easily, whole sections get run over by other sections. The earth also has layers. These vary greatly in thickness and materials.

One thing I have noticed over the years is that the Greater Quakes all come at the 10 kilometer level. This seems to be a vital separation point in the lithosphere. There is a great deal we don't know despite an army of fine geologists moving rapidly to write the geological history of this wonderful and dangerous planet. The main thing here is, these series of earthquakes are happening in a place and time as well as depth that leads me to issue of possible warning:

Tsunamis are always initially invisible. If the point of origin is far enough at sea, the earthquake launching it may be much milder on land than in the deep canyons where massive displacement of ocean bed can trigger a tsunami. It is nearly impossible to predict when these events will happen. But the fact that the plates next to Oregon and California are grinding their gears very badly at this most dangerous depth, and since these quakes are obviously moving down the major canyons in this area, the place most likely to give birth to tsunamis, this means to be on the alert for this possibility.

It has only been 4 years since the huge displacement/jump in the sea next to Sumatra happened. The new stresses at the opposite end of the Pacific Plate have yet to be released in an equally big quake. Let's look further into this history of tsunamis and quakes that rock alternately, the Asian rim and the North American West Coast:

Bathymetric Map of the Gorda Plate: Structural and Geomorphological Processes Inferred from Multibeam Surveys

Robert P. Dziak1 , Christopher G. Fox1, Andra M. Bobbitt2 and Chris Goldfinger3

Full-coverage multibeam bathymetric maps of the southern section of the Juan de Fuca Plate, also known as the Gorda Plate, are presented. The bathymetric maps represent the compilation of multibeam surveys conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration during the last 20 yrs, and illustrate the complex tectonic, volcanic, and geomorphologic features as well as the intense deformation occurring within this region. The bathymetric data have revealed several major, previously unmapped midplate faults. A series of gently curving faults are apparent in the Gorda Plate, with numerous faults offsetting the Gorda Plate seafloor. The multibeam surveys have also provided a detailed view of the intense deformation occurring within the Gorda Plate. A preliminary deformation model estimated from basement structure is discussed, where the southern part of the plate (south of ∼42°30′ N) seems to be deforming through a series of left-lateral strike-slip faults, while the northern section appears to be moving passively with the rest of the Juan de Fuca Plate. The bathymetry also demonstrates the Mendocino and Eel Canyons are prominent morphologic features in the northern California margin. These canyons are active depositional features with a large sediment fan present at the mouths of both the Mendocino and Eel canyons. The depositional lobes of these fan(s) are evident in the bathymetry, as are the turbidite channels that have deposited sediment along the fans over time. The Trinidad Canyon is readily evident in the margin morphology as well, with a large (∼10 km) plunge pool formed at the mouth of the canyon as it enters the Gorda Plate sediments.

Always, when there is severe deformations, these resolve themselves very explosively. We talk about 'snapping points' or 'stress points' when discussing any dynamic system. All systems can, if they are sufficiently dynamic, build up points where conflicts can't be resolved easily. These build up more and more energy and the parts frozen in place get increasingly crushed and warped. Then it explodes suddenly. The only way to not have this happen is for the forces at work to dissipate or vanish. Whether we are talking about economics, politics or nature, this process is the same.

So whenever I read that a geologically active region is either rising rapidly for collapsing rapidly, we can expect something dramatic. In the case of rising, these massive 9+ mag events cause sudden subsidence. This, in turn, can trigger landslides that rush in to fill the dropping space. Lisbon, Portugal, for example, had a very violent earthquake long ago and the lower parts of the city subsided and vanished into the ocean as well as the city being swept by a tsunami.

INFLUENCE OF THE MENDOCINO TRIPLE JUNCTION ON THE TECTONICS OF COASTAL CALIFORNIA

Kevin P. Furlong
Geodynamics Research Group, Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16801; email: kevin@geodyn.psu.edu
Susan Y. Schwartz
Earth Sciences Department and IGPP, University of California, Santa Cruz, California 95064; email: sschwartz@es.ucsc.edu

Abstract The migration of the Mendocino triple junction through central and northern California over the past 25–30 million years has led to a profound change in plate interactions along coastal California. The tectonic consequences of the abrupt change from subduction plate interactions north of the triple junction to the development of the San Andreas transform system south of the triple junction can be seen in the geologic record and geophysical observations. The primary driver of this tectonism is a coupling among the subducting Juan de Fuca (Gorda), North American, and Pacific plates that migrates with the triple junction. This coupling leads to ephemeral thickening of the overlying North American crust, associated uplift and subsequent subsidence, and a distinctive sequence of fault development and volcanism.

The San Andreas has been fairly quiet. But as we can see from the map at the top, the line of earthquakes lead towards the San Andreas Fault system. This system is notorious for sudden, violent lurches. Usually, in sections. But these sections are quite capricious. Humans have chosen to build along this dangerous fault line. Many water, electrical and transportation systems run along this huge, totally unstable fault line system. Salton Sea, for example, didn't exist when my grandpa drove one of the first cars through that place back in 1900. But then, there was an earthquake and the canal system broke and flooded that depression and the lake was born. The whole length of Baja California used to be part of the landmass of Mexico but over the eons, has seen the central valley subside more and more until the ocean flooded in. Death Valley is well below sea level. And will eventually be flooded, too.

Indeed, over the next several million years, all of Central Valley of California will probably be flooded. Many people don't realize how low it is relative to the ocean because of the mountains on the coast protecting it from the fury of the sea.

Volcanic Activity and Underwater Earthquakes:

Following the discovery of the first buried marsh sequences on land, Adams (1990) used existing cores to test the possibility that the Cascadia cores contained a record of Holocene great earthquakes of the Cascadia margin. Fortunately, Oregon and Washington cores all contain a unique datable event, the ash layer from the eruption of Mount Mazama, at 7627 ± 150 cal yr BP (Zdanowicz et al., 1999). The ash was distributed to the channel system via the drainage basins of major rivers, similar to the distribution of Mt St. Helens ash following the 1980 eruption (Nelson et al., 1968). Only channel cores contain the ash, indicating that airfall offshore was not significant.

Adams (1990) examined core logs for Cascadia Basin cores, and determined that nearly all of them had 13 turbidites overlying the Mazama ash. Following the discovery of the first buried marsh sequences on land Adams, (1990) assessed the possibility that turbidites in channels of Cascadia Basin contained a record of great earthquakes along the Cascadia margin. He found that cores along the length of Cascadia channel contain 13 turbidites and argued that these 13 turbidites correlate along the channel. Adams observed that cores from Juan de Fuca Canyon, and below the confluence of Willapa, Grays, and Quinault Canyons, contain 14-16 turbidites above the Mazama ash. The correlative turbidites in Cascadia channel lie downstream of the confluence of these channels. If these events had been independently triggered events with more than a few hours separation in time, the channels below the confluence should contain the sum of the tributaries, from 26-31 turbidites, not 13 as observed (Figure 1). The importance of this simple observation is that it demonstrates synchronous triggering of turbidite events in tributaries, the headwaters of which are separated by 50-150 km. Similar inferences about regionally triggered synchronous turbidites in separate channels are reported in Pilkey (1988). This elegant relative dating technique is used extensively in our Cascadia and SAF work.

Using 54 new cores in Cascadia, we have confirmed and extended the event record temporally and spatially. Thirteen post-Mazama and 18 Holocene events are found along~ 660 km of the margin in the Cascadia, Barclay, Willapa, Grays, and Rogue Canyon/Channel systems between latitudes 42N and 48N. The most recent event took place in 1700 AD (Satake et al., 1996; Nelson et al., 1995), and an additional 12 turbidite events have occurred during the preceeding 7200 years, yielding a mean recurrence time of ~575 years.

Let's keep this 500 year time frame in mind. The West Coast has a number of active volcanoes. The further up one goes, the more violent the earthquakes and numerous the active volcanoes. Alaska has the most active volcanoes and 9+mag earthquakes up there have had huge effects much further south. Yellowstone's caldera activities changes whenever there is a great quake up in Alaska, for example. Not to mention tsunamis triggered in Alaska have killed people in Washington State and Oregon.

The Cape Mendocino, California, Earthquakes of April 1992: Subduction at the Triple Junction

The 25 April 1992 magnitude 7.1 Cape Mendocino thrust earthquake demonstrated that the North America—Gorda plate boundary is seismogenic and illustrated hazards that could result from much larger earthquakes forecast for the Cascadia region. The shock occurred just north of the Mendocino Triple Junction and caused strong ground motion and moderate damage in the immediate area. Rupture initiated onshore at a depth of 10.5 kilometers and propagated up-dip and seaward. Slip on steep faults in the Gorda plate generated two magnitude 6.6 aftershocks on 26 April. The main shock did not produce surface rupture on land but caused coastal uplift and a tsunami. The emerging picture of seismicity and faulting at the triple junction suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing significant seismicity.

This was north of this week's quake cluster. Note that it, too, was at the 10 kilometer depth. Also, a 7.1 is a large quake but not a great quake. Those are 8.5 and greater.

Oregon State Tsunami Warning System:

Recent research shows that at any time the Pacific Northwest can experience large earthquakes and accompanying tsunamis, and that tsunamis have affected the Oregon coast on a regular basis over time. Scientists have not yet had time to do local studies that will be able to tell you how high a tsunami may be in any one area and how far you must run inland or how high you must climb to escape. The best general advice available today is to (1) go up to 2 miles inland if you are in a low-lying area or at least 100 feet above sea level if you can; and (2) go on foot if at all possible because of traffic jams and earthquake damage.

A tsunami wave increases in height as it approaches shore. Typical wave heights from tsunamis occurring in the Pacific over the last 80 years have been between 21 to 45 feet at the shoreline. A few waves, however, have been much higher- as much as 100 feet or more because of local conditions. Also, tsunamis may affect local areas differently, causing great damage and loss of life in one area but little in another.

Anyone living in any part of the West Coast should review what one needs if these periodic and inevitable events happen. Living as if there is no need to prepare is not recommended. When I was a child, my grandparents warned me to NEVER turn my back to the ocean but to learn the danger signs of a tsunami. Even today, I have occasional dreams where I see the ocean suddenly withdraw and I try to run as fast as possible. Once, I was caught in a bad wave. As usual, as other people were trusting and ignoring the horizon, I noted a dark line that grew bigger as it approached us. I yelled to everyone to run as fast as possible inland. Two fishermen saw it too and we grabbed some children and ran. The wave struck us and lifted us and the children into the air and we swam to the piers and grabbed hold so we wouldn't be sucked back into the sea.

Luckily, it was a rouge wave and not a tsunami.

But Americans have moved endlessly towards the oceans. We love living on beaches. Most of the time, it is fun. But we have to remember the trade-offs. I had a girlfriend who had to be pulled from her disintegrating house in Coney Island during a fierce winter storm. Below is a story from 2004, when the people of this planet were horrified to see an extreme example of a tsunami:

Geologist comments on Oregon's tsunami hazard

Earthquake-caused tsunamis as severe as those that swept southeast Asia on Sunday have happened in the past off the Oregon coast, according to a University of Oregon geoscientist.

In fact, a tsunami caused by a magnitude 9.0 earthquake occurred on Jan. 26, 1700, wiping out Oregon tribal villages in low-lying coastal estuaries and causing damage as far away as Japan. Ray Weldon, who researches and teaches about of geologic hazards, says he hopes coastal residents will be motivated to learn about Oregon's tsunami potential in light of the devastation along the coasts of nine Asian nations on the Indian Ocean.

Weldon is leading a team of scientists studying uplift along the coast and how it informs the size of future earthquakes and tsunamis. He says a comparison of modern uplift rates in the Pacific Northwest to that predicted by models of past earthquakes--like that big one of 1700--reveals many similarities.

"This tells us that the subduction zone is accumulating strain for the next great earthquake," he says. Historically, such events tend to occur, on the average, every 300 to 500 years.

That was 300 years ago. And in the same area where these new quakes are now happening. Because of this fact, the state of Oregon should be issuing tsunami warnings. Ignoring this so tourists can relive the same horrors that hit the tourist resorts in Asia, is criminal. Even if there is no earthquake, giving people an alert and showing them, via maps, the outline of previous tsunamis would be merciful as well as a civic duty. Pretending this might never happen is as foolish as the Fed pretending they have no idea how a credit crisis develops.

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