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ziff house

The derivatives beast is mostly interest rate swaps. ???

Buffalo Ken

Elaine - you should be paid for all that you do. Recompense is due.

Peace,
Ken

carli

I second the motion Ken! I read a lot everyday, no one comes close in focus, comprehension, analysis, and historical perspective. Always a pleasure to read. She would be a real asset working as a consultant with our Central Bank and the Asian development Bank.

CK

Actually, Elaine would do perfectly fine starting her own private bank. I, for one, would be a depositor.
I would expect however that all depositors would receive green eyeshades in lieu of formosan coffeepots.

JSmith

HAHAHA

That insipid ad with that putrid “saved by 0%” jingle made me want to “go Elvis” on my television.

*sigh*

I’ve been reading this blog for about a month and it’s interesting to me that even though I am not an “economist”, and have nowhere near the depth of knowledge and analysis presented here I was still able to figure out a lot of this stuff on my own.

It’s weird. I thought to myself: how can so many supposedly smart people be so wrong? Is that really possible? Alas it is! And now I can prove it, more or less, thanks to Elaine. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

One thing I figured out on my own was the capitalist myth of ‘wealth creation’.

Basically ‘wealth creation’ is in reality merely just using technology to extract energy more efficiently. (Not necessarily USE energy more efficiently). But all energy resources originate from the Sun, and the energy deposited in the Earth’s system is finite. Vast, yes, but finite nonetheless. Of course, this is not necessarily a problem as long as energy resources are abundant, or infinite. But since they are as of yet not, the laws of thermodynamics must eventually prevail. Perhaps this reflects to some degree why Prometheus got such a harsh punishment for tempting us with the gift of fire.

Interestingly, the exponential “hockey stick” growth of the global money supply and human population seems to be roughly congruent.

Now, I love God with all of my heart and I don’t mind dying so that God may live. But suffering and/or dying so the likes of Dick Cheney and Henry Kissinger can rule the world? Not so much.

God bless you, Elaine Supkis.

ziff house

what exactly should the US export? They are up against the greatest manufacturing machine on earth , all those litte hands.
Agriculture? probably ecological limits [from inputs] on that.

ziff house

Interestingly, the exponential “hockey stick” growth of the global money supply and human population seems to be roughly congruent.

Also congruent with oil production, a bell curve peaking right now.

Buffalo Ken

The first step is not exporting - the first step is to stop importing. Obviously this will need to coincide with manufacturing that which previously had been imported and of course was necessary. Many imports just now ain't nothing but feffen fluff. Same with santa - what a farking fluffer he is...

Peace,
Ken

Buffalo Ken

What the hay - Poem of the day..
________

fleffen farkin freakin creaking stinking fluff - what you thinking --- McDonalds plastic crap and stuff? This stuff don't last. Make it at home why don't ya.....jump and flump and fromp and framp on the feffer as he tries to make things better...
_____________
end of goofy poem..

Ken

P.S. Anyone seen the gold, the silver, and the US Dollar today - funky!

Buffalo Ken

Think about this possibility because it could happen - all these derivative players hanging on their rope are shorting the US Dollar - played it up some, now they are ready for the fall, or so they think......

I doubt this is happen although I do think the US Dollar will "find" its natural value. As will the Canadian Dollar and the Swiss Franc and all the other currencies.

Volatility is the name of the game I suppose, but even so, volatility always gives way to a more steady-state.

Peace,
Ken

Grok

Come on folks. Don't you know that Elaine has dozens of fact checkers, researchers, go-fers, and technical staff. Not to mention a vast fortune accumulated from profiteering on her knowledge of economic facts and trends.

***** JUST KIDDING OF COURSE! *****

Although I would venture a guess that her hubby is a valuable source of encouragement and strength.

Buffalo Ken

Grok - As Heinlein would say "I Grok".

Tell

"Second Planet Needed to Meet Natural-Resources"...

http://tinyurl.com/5bednr

The above is WAY behind...

http://tinyurl.com/2fm5kp

It`s the real reason why we will not come out of this depression and the real reason we are going into one as time will tell.

Grok

Ken.....My all time favorite sci-fi novel. But sadly, it was Charlie Manson's favorite too! Just shows you what bad people can do to a great theme.

Tell

"If a private enterprise is a failure, it is closed down - unless it can get a government subsidy to keep it going; if a government enterprise is a failure, it is expanded. I challenge you to find exceptions."...

"Milton Friedman, Why Government is the Problem, Wriston Lecture (1991)"

ziff house

''Second Planet Needed to Meet Natural-Resources"...

David Suzuki told everyone this years ago , except it was 4 or 5? planets.
I've always marveled that the chinese thought they could live at USA standards.

blues

Gov'ment? Privit? Huh? It's all just more college brahminariat media cartel refuse! Exactly how stupid are we all really expected to be?

DeVaul

I have a long-time friend who works right under one of the Cabinet Secretaries in the Bush Administration. My friend heads the negotiation teams that go to Singapore, South America, and other Asian countries.

Several years ago I took my friend to New Orleans to keep an old promise I had made. We talked one night at dinner about what my friend does for a living. At the time, I knew nothing about international trade or money or anything that I have learned here.

I asked my friend who the most difficult negotiators where, and my friend said the Asians were the worst. They would not accept anything and were very difficult to deal with. I asked my friend what we were trying to get Brazil (where my friend had just returned from) to accept from us in trade, and my friend said that we were trying to get them to accept our "financial products" in exchange for their corn and beans and coffee.

The conversation turned to other light hearted matters, but I always remember that conversation because I did not know what was meant by "financial products". Now I do.

Basically, my friend's job was to get other countries to invest in our swindles, con games, and other money making schemes in exchange for their raw goods or value-added items. They were resistant to this because they had their own home-grown flock of con-men and swindlers and did not need to import any.

Like ancient Rome, we had nothing to trade. We produced nothing but feces and ponzi schemes.

PK Scott

Hey Guys,

Whats the difference between a Wall Street Banker and a whore?

When a whore screws you, you get value for your money.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

when a whore screws you, you get COOTIES.

Ken, LOVED your poem! Dr. Suess is a laughing in the afterlife!

About trade negotiators: HAHAHA. A herd of some of the stupidest people on earth.

When you negotiate with the Communist Chinese, if they cease smiling and are angry, it means you are making progress. They get more and more pissed and then, when the deal is done, they are your eternal friends!

They despise people who don't like hacking it when negotiating.

In Monty Python's Life of Brian [a tremendously funny movie!] there is a scene where Brian desperately needs a disguise to hide from the Romans and the merchant insists on haggling. If he doesn't haggle properly, the merchant begins to complain very loudly.

A movie all negotiators should watch and discuss. Heh.

PLovering

When Argentina, for example, borrows dollars, it must scrounge dollars to pay off the loan.

When U.S. borrows, it merely prints dollars to pay off the loan.

Big advantage to U.S.

And a good way to break the world; establish a New World Order; work for zi juus.

Blunt Force Trauma

1% Ben! Weeeee. He's to mimic Japan. What's next? A claim of NO inflation?

Fed Cuts Rate to 1% to Avert Prolonged Recession (Bloomberg)

Hahahahahahaha, I'm dyin'

http://tinyurl.com/6ow3cg

DrKrbyLuv

There are some positive benefits to the concept of 0% loans. Maybe borrowing money should be free with only fees involved?

In a way, this concept is consistent with the principles of Islamic (Sharia) and early Christian law. Interest on loans could be discontinued and instead, allow lenders to charge a fee and or rent/lease arrangements.

Look at what is happening with interest bearing loans. Many mortgages are re-setting to higher levels, some effectively doubling the monthly payment amount.

And, look at credit cards. They are automatically rate adjusted based on automatic updated differences in credit scores. People are reporting new interest rates ranging as high as 25-30%. Credit card maximum balances may be arbitrarily reduced, requiring the borrower to instantly reduce the balance.

Why not eliminate interest on all loans?

Loans could include a significant down-payment and/or collateral. The lending institution could be allowed to charge fees and in the case of real estate, rent over the life of the loan.

What happens to credit cards? I dunno, maybe they become debit cards.

What happens to fractional lending? It stops, and people would need to be encouraged to accumulate money in savings accounts by allowing them to be paid part of the fees charged on loans - contracts.

I'm sure there are many flaws in what I am suggesting and I look forward to hearing any comments.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Yes, inflation is retreating as the price of oil declines. Perfectly obvious.

Now: they must tell us over and over again, the price of oil has little to do with inflation. And wars aimed at oil pumping nations has nothing to do with global inflation.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Renting instead of paying interest?

HAHAHA. My ancestors understood what feudalism was all about: we collected the rent, the peasants paid and woe betide anyone who failed to pay us!

This is why my ancestors practiced sword fighting and jousting.

DrKrbyLuv

Elaine - no, I meant pay rent until the contractual payment obligations are met. Then, full ownership - no rent.

Home owner provides a down-payment of maybe 20% and they pay off the balance; divided by the term. For example, a $100,000 mortgage contract might break down as follows:

$100,000 - $20,000 down-payment = $80,000 Balance

Loan fee: $2,0000 (Paid to arranger & lender/saver)

Monthly payment (20 Year mortgage): $333

Monthly rent: $800

Monthly rent and principle paid to lenders and some monthly fees to the loan arranger

GK

"Slaves To The Orgy Of Money"

I love that title.

I have been trying to guess what the endgame of this orgy of money will be.

Is it:
1. Vaporize the value of the dollar to technically not have to pay $12 trillion in debt.

2. Hoard cash until US interest rates soar up to 18% (Obama/Volcker) THEN start lending?

3. Centralize all banking power into a super-constitutional monopoly structure.
(Super meaning 'above' the constitution)

I think 1 and 2 are too dramatic and could harm the military that backs our currency and it will be the more mundane #3.

In the unlikely event that Obama can avoid voting machine hacking that creates a 'surprise' McCain win we may get VOLCKER-18% Plan #2.

I am not voting for either of them (go third parties!) but I think that fear of 100% dems in house and executive branch, latent racism, voter roll purges, vote challenges and Diebold voting machine hacking make for an almost guaranteed McCain win. He and his banking criminal friends are perfect for implementing SUPER-BANK plan #3.

Any other predictions out there?

http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Slaves_To_The_Orgy_Of_Money

"In the end, all these large banks will come crashing down like a ton of bricks because they are irretrievably insolvent, and then they, along with the privately owned Fed, will be nationalized and merged into one super-entity, which will be given all regulatory power over the financial industry. They will no longer have to kill off the small fry by creating catastrophes. They will simply regulate them out of existence until their banking and financial interests have achieved god-like, dictatorial power. "

OC

GK,

Option 3 can't work - most nations will go to China rather than IMF. One Super bank - China, Japan, OPEC and other Asian nations such as Taiwan, Singapore (all pro-China)which are cash rich (as opposed to debt) as the new G7.

Option 2 - new G7 has the most cash as reserves and that include Yen and Euros.

Which leaves Option 1 as the only viable option just like the Sterling Pound in 1930s.

carli

Elaine, this is the guy the Fed, Treasury and all the Central Banks in the world should hire to oversee the coming economic crash. The man knows what he is doing!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XRCbkBfdBrQ

DrKrbyLuv, I agree with you on the rental issue, your are talking about a lease-purchase contract. The numbers make sense but consider this, the price of homes in the US and everywhere else in the world stand to drop by 70-80% over the next few years. Thank you deflation.

The time to buy would be then, not now. To buy or own now means going into negative equity (unless you bought your home 15-25 years ago). If you buy at close to bottom then all the rental you paid (which is tax deductible, as an expense), and the savings you made on property taxes and fees, not to mention the savings on loan fees will far, far outweight the lease-purchase contract. Try to instead negotiate a Right of First refusal on the home purchase X amount of years in future, that way you do not lock in todays price and pay tomorrows negative equity.

DrKrbyLuv

carli -

Thanks for bringing up the tax consequences and deflating home prices.

I agree, now would not be a good time to buy if one may chose the time window. But, I don't think homes prices would bubble near as much if the business incentive was to collect the principle as opposed to originating more mortgages (most are sold off with guarantee).

I also question conventional wisdom that says one should own as opposed to rent (provided they can write-off interest). If interest were eliminated, no tax deduction would be needed.

Many mortgages were used to upgrade the homes with the hope growing your home investment. For example, $50,000 kitchens, $30,000 master bedroom bathrooms, hardwood floors, etc. Turns out, these were terrible "investments." Home upgrades would be better spent on energy reduction and sustainability.

Thanks

ziff house

Don Coxe; no reccession ,quick bounce back ,magic piggy banks

http://watch.bnn.ca/headline/october-2008/headline-october-21-2008/#clip104894

carli

DrKrbyLuv, agreed. In business and investing timing is everything, it dictates profit or loss. Doing your homework and paying attention to the interlocking economic issues is paramount. The gnomes have made everything so complicated that one has no choice. Either that or the poorhouse.

I like the sound of a no interest regime, and it would make the gnomes jobless, something which resonates with most of us here. However, it would take at least a generation to wind down the conspicuous consumption habits brought about by cheap money and easy debt. As Elaine always reminds us, savings, not debt is the key to prosperity.

We have a ways to go still, but even if a few succeed on this track the rest will follow. The gnomes have lost all sense of credibility. They are exposed and afraid. And they are playing more and more alone with their imaginary "money" friend. We may yet see them turn into clay figurines to adorn our lawns.

calvino

ZiiFuckerling got buggered by zii juuz again? What happened to you Fuckerling, a vanload of blackcoats ran a train on your ass?

ziff house

Calvino; so whats the bug up your nazi ass. off your meds moonbeam??

Q

If the markets were having a problem finding the bottom, Wednesday rate cut just guaranteed we are screwed. Oil is currently around $70 a barrel compared with Monday's low of $61. The Yen is around 98 however the US dollar index now has dropped from 87.5 to 83.5, it will be very difficult to weaken the Yen faster than the US dollar devalues along with China's and HK peg to the US dollar. They have just accelerated the competitive devaluation and stagflation process. Our trade rivals won't buy our trade products, while we soon won't be able to afford to buy theirs. Commodities are now the new game in town while stocks, bonds and currencies get trashed along with workers' wages and savings.

The solution involves IBs and AIG top executives a lamp post and some rope.

PLovering

My Dear Fellow,

We were there when Good King Edward signed the Edict of Expulsion in 1290 which expelled zi juus from England for practicing usury, infanticide and ritual murder: usually involving the crucifixion of christian boy.

Now, here we are 800 years later in America, and zi juus are still practicing usury and infanticide in our land.

No question, America needs to repeat an Edict of Expulsion, so as to deport zi juus and their evil and Satanistic practices from our lands.

calvino

Apparently Misses Supkis was there when Cromwell reversed ZiiFuckerling's edict and your fleshy chamberpot as well. Your appearances in history were Legion and end as a demon swine running off a cliff.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Plovering, the expulsion of ANY religious or ethnic minority is a CRIME. Got that?

A CRIME. Many countries do this. INCLUDING ISRAEL. But it is a CRIME.

Just because many countries or rulers do this doesn't make it humane, good or a model one should follow.

Calvino; you just have to wake up some day and realize that Zionists have been endorsing and justifying ethnic cleansing!

Zionists are creating Naziism. The refusal to understand how Jews have embraced far right wing ethnic cleansing Naziism is at the terrible core of the entire problem concerning the rise of anti-semitism. It is definitely rising! Polls in Europe shows that, despite Jewish attempts at passing draconian anti-free speech laws, anti-semitist feelings are rising rapidly BECAUSE of these laws!

In the US, a person is swiftly banned if they discuss Israel or Jewish attempts at politically dominating all public systems in order to protect their own brand of neo-Nazi ethnic cleansing. I have been a notable victim of this.

The only road out is simple: to denounce religious based states! To denounce race riots like the ones that go nearly totally unreported in Israel thanks to the heavy blanket of Jewish censorship of Jewish crimes.

I still remember when it was illegal for Protestants to proselytize in all South American countries, for example. But in the dear old USA, we allow anyone to preach anything they want...sort of.

We have freedom of speech...less and less, of course. We are slowly losing ground because Jewish people who control a great hunk of our media, want ethnic cleansing to be clean fun in the Holy Land. So they are now trying their hardest to limit the first amendment.

We have to talk about this but people like Plovering are Zionist CLONES. They want what you, Calvino, want. Alas for us all! I HATE THIS WITH A PASSION.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

About Cromwell: we were nobles who fought on the Protestant side and when the King returned, we were THROWN OUT!

We were REFUGEES! And the Spanish wanted our heads, too! We had only two places we could go: Amsterdam or the New World. Which was just a howling wilderness.

We settled in the Hudson Valley.

So I don't want any crap about anyone being thrown out of a country.

Duski

I just wonder how recklessly stupid all our economists are? When risks are high, interest rates should go up, like they just almost did. But this scared everyone to force them down again? But risks are still there!

Now we are going to see all that happening again, reckless lending, buying record cheap stocks with lended money and soaring last spike in stocks, or some other totally foolish bubbles. When all that comes down again, no one has anything left. And when yen finally rises in value, no one can pay up their debts to Japan anymore. Defaults, anyone?

If the governments are so worried about our economy, and freezing of financial markets, they should let the central banks (or other institutions) lend money to enterprises, but NOT TO BANKS. Some banks are full of money but they do not dare to lend anyone because they are either scared or they want to everything come crashing down, after which they can buy up everything.

In the recession, government can make it easier for the economy by investing and keeping things rolling. There is always plenty of infrastructure in need of building, upgrading or repairing. But I am afraid USA government went into too much debt while economy was going "good" (actually, NO ECONOMY EVER is going good while DEBT IS GROWING; that should only happen in recessions).

Actually, I started to thing how "stupid" Japan seems in this, when everyone defaults they are not getting anything back? Or will they simply own everything that is indebted to them then?

Duski

Gads, I write a bit bad when I'm emotional! But I cannot help it, I feel like stupid and blinds are leading the world economy. And everyone more clearheaded is pushed to the sidelines for the one truth they are offering!

Roubini made good predictions (that everyone with some common sense could have made, like no economy can grow forever with going more and more in debt!), and he might soon be our next messiah. But will he do any better? Pouring more money into the failed system of finances? Lend money to real production and industries, not to some failed funny money production. Even better, build up your infrastructure: while giving jobs to thousands, you would be creating a better environment and chances for all future companies to prosper.

CK

One might want to ask the Iriquois and the Aztecs about the virtues of allowing unlimited immigration of people with Judeo-christian virtues and values.

carli

CK, include the Inca, Hawaiians, Filipinos, Chinese, Indians, in your list. Ad infinitum. With even a small amount of intelligence one can surmise that the people who make the loudest noise dish out the most misery. We have a saying in our language, "An empty can makes a lot of noise."

If the ones who moan about the wrongs heaped on their kind had even an iota of sincerity, they would include all races, and all peoples who have ever been massacred, sacrificed or politically or religiously persecuted, in their cause. If instead of wearing their elitist cause like a badge they were to reach out and make peace they would go much further in acieving the peace they rant about.

Instead of using their horrid history as an excuse to perpetuate the very misery they themselves have experienced. It's a very shallow mindset, and one that guarantees that in some yet unknown future they too will experience a vanload of blackcoats run a train on their asses.

Imagine the Indians and Chinese with their billions thinking like these people!!!??? Looking for retribution at any cost. Thank God there are thinking people in numbers.

Buffalo Ken

carli - I second that for sure!

Peace,
Ken

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Correct. Just for example, the Chinese have been discriminated against. They were not allowed to become American citizens after working here. Some stayed after building the Western half of the continental railroad system. My dearest playmate, when I was a child, Fan, was the great grandchild of these hard-working Chinese.

And her family had to wait until the Civil Rights Act to vote!

In many other countries, there are anti-Chinese riots where the natives burn Chinese businesses, etc.

Then there is Japan: utterly hostile to anyone who is not Japanese. One could find many examples very easily. But the worst is the annihilation of the natives of North and South America, Australia: they were mostly slain by diseases because of their isolation from Eurasia and Africa.

carli

Elaine, Ken, will we ever learn that by harming others we ultimately harm ourselves? Pain inflicted has a return address. No one has a monopoly on smarts, no one! You kill someone creatively, and his people will find a more creative way to kill you. This is the way of morons.

I learned early on in high school (in those days kids were gang oriented, it was a very physical mindset, lots of testosterone), that in every group there was always one person who was the most insecure, the one who would find any excuse to start anything, and get the whole gang into a fight they were not looking for. I labeled these types as "matches". After watching their M.O. for some time, I came upon the idea of singling the "matches" out. In a mix up I would go for the match and pound him good. Every fight the match got the worst end of it. Until he got tired of getting pounded and stopped creating trouble. Better the light than a fist in his face. Peace came easily after this.

It's the same the world over, you have a few starters that get the whole, rabble involved while they make profit and live the life of Riley. These are the guys whose houses should get "Predatored", while they are in them! Amen.

flash

Carli- I've seen the game the "matches" play in action. I call it "let's you and him fight." Our politician class is very good at it.

Over time, hundreds of empires have collapsed. The matches seek to place blame on some outsider group -- zi juus, minority subprime borrowers, hippies, bankers, whatever -- to release their frustration rather than taking the painful steps to rebuild constructively. If I may play match here, let me blame human stupidity. Quick, everyone, go look in a mirror.

CK

@Carli: Didn't want to make too long a list of it. When the shoe is on the other foot, the previously downtrodden are always more than willing to stamp their boots in some "other's" face.

blues

Regarding all the current economic emergency room cases:

|¯ Pouring more money into the failed system of finances? Lend money to real production and industries, not to some failed funny money production. Even better, build up your infrastructure: while giving jobs to thousands, you would be creating a better environment and chances for all future companies to prosper. _| — Duski

This is exactly correct!!! Of course, maybe the Asian bankers would turn down the financing for that sort of thing!

I am disturbed about the "zi juus" bullshit. Being a human being comes before being a religious consumer. We should all oppose the the evil of theocracy, which intrinsically bears the seed of bigotry. This does of course include the theocratic Government of Israel. What we really need to do is stop selling the USA to China in order to give arms and money to the Israeli Government.

Remember too, the people who pull the strings of our brahminariat media cartel are ultra-rich, are global "citizens" have no loyalty to anything but themselves.

About the mortgages, credit cards, etc., I think maybe there should be a law that, from now on, all credit repayment should be limited by law to what individuals can afford to pay. Maybe no more than would leave each family $1,000 to live on, with $500 for each additional family member. And no more foreclosures until things straighten out, and compact energy efficient villages built on level roads (along contour lines of constant elevation) in safe locations are constructed.

We need wealth control. No one should be allowed to own more than 40,000× what it costs a normal person to barely survive for one month. The moment you allow 1% of us to own 99% of the wealth, they are going to also own royal power, and they can easily yank democracy right out of our hands.

THIS IS AN EMERGENCY!

Buffalo Ken

I suppose this is fairly obvious, but I think for awhile there have been many "inhumane" leaders (thats a nice word for it), but we can do better. Also, as Elaine says: "The blog is mightier than the sword".

Peace,
Ken

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