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Elaine Meinel Supkis

The NIKKEI is now collapsing. And tomorrow isn't even Thursday, the day of Doom!

Toyota sales are definitely now collapsing due to their SUV sales falling through the floor.

RobG

"Iceland decided to become a pirate cove"

Wow - excellent analysis.

Anthony

Hey, that's from 2005, instead of 2008 daily pfennig. (which was correct that iceland was climbing fast. He is a currency trader afteral)


ELAINE: THANKS FOR THE CORRECTION. I made a mistake based on the time tag at the top of the story that was not correct. I looked at it and saw the other time tag.

Back then, in 2005, I warned people about places like Iceland because they were playing a really dangerous currency game which led to the Asian Currency Crisis of the late 1990's. Back then, I tracked that mess daily and wrote about it on the NYT forums.

It seems that no one learned any lessons from that mess.

RobG

Good assessment of the state of affairs over at Market Ticker:

"More liquidity" will not solve the problem no matter the form. This has now been proven correct through more than a year's "grand experiment" by Bernanke and friends.

The credit markets, along with consumers and banks, are literally choking on all the liquidity being shoved down their throats. It has done exactly nothing to address the problem and won't because:

* Banks and other financial institutions have been repeatedly proven liars in terms of their financial strength and balance sheets. Pick a financial institution and you will find that almost without exception they have claimed "exposure" to bad debt that is a tiny fraction of what is later shown to be accurate. Nobody can fairly evaluate a firm's financial strength so long as this continues; ergo, nobody can have a reasonable degree of trust to lend to such an institution. In addition even settled black-letter law in some regards has been shown to be wantonly (and perhaps feloniously) ignored; Lehman, as an example, is alleged to have transferred segregated customer funds and securities to a Cayman Islands subsidiary shortly before it went under, effectively locking up funds and securities that are supposed to be safe from a bankruptcy proceeding.
* Consumers are tapped out. The House-cum-ATM machine is empty and cannot be refilled. Consumers will retrench severely, even though they have had to be dragged kicking and screaming into that mode. Nearly 18 months ago I detected the trend in the consumer credit data. This recession cannot resolve until the over-leveraged state of the consumer is rectified. That requires that the bad debt be defaulted and thus cleared. Consumers are more than 2/3rds of the economy.
* It is not possible to reflate the credit bubble. We must deal with the reality that the bad debt in the economy - no matter who holds it - must be defaulted.
* There is no "liquidity trap" into which to fall; we are already in the hole as there is no more capacity to borrow; we have exceeded the maximum safe amount of lending that can be accommodated in the economy. When one is in a hole, the first rule is to stop digging.

Personally, I see "Pump it Up!" as policy going forward.

RobG

Pump it up (by the other Elvis):

She's (insert 'credit') been a bad girl.
She's like a chemical.
Though you try to stop it,
she's like a narcotic.
You wanna torture her.
You wanna talk to her.
All the things you bought for her,
putting up your temp'rature.

RobG

One more post: I started reading 'A Bubble that Broke the World' (Garet Garret) that you recomment - would make them (Paulson and Bernacke) crap their drawers. First words of the book:

Mass delusions are not rare. They salt the human story. The hallucinatory types are well know; so also is the sudden variation called mania, generally localized, like the tulip mania in Holland man years ago or the common stock mania of a recent time in Wall Street. But a delusion affecting the mentality of the entire world at one time was hitherto unknown. All our experience with it original. This is a delusion about credit.

Richard

The Queen of England has a son, the Prince of Wales.

Might he be the one to rise to fulfill the Bible prophecy of Sovereign ruler of the world?

carli

Elaine, I can't stop laughing, a perfectly executed Ippon Seoinage by Sensei Putin.

Truly the most pleasurable way of getting even with an enemy is to use his own money against him. Clearly, Putin is very much minding the store. I expect Hu will be mimicking him soon.

Btw, what with the Thursday, Day of Doom? What am I missing?

Zulu

On another blog I saw this post: "In an act of kindness, the U.S. should consider unleashing its own nuclear arsenal against itself... " But seriously, the Austrian school of economics foretold the tragedies that would befall us if we followed this path. Von Mises was a genius. But whose name did we hear repeated constantly during our school years? Marx. How is it that fools run the world? Why are we so powerless to stop them? I firmly believe Justice will be served. We the unwashed masses may suffer while the elite play their games, but one look at the pyramids of Egypt should tell us that wealth and power are an illusion. Here today, gone tomorrow. Perhaps God has a lesson for us to learn. Will we listen this time?

carli

Zulu: Perhaps God has a lesson for us to learn. Will we listen this time?

Reviewing ancient and recent human history is not encouraging, Zulu. I am a firm believer that true happiness cannot be found in duality, only fleeting happiness mixed with misery and pain. Life is a bridge, do not build your house on it. For as long one listens to mind, one will remain in this conundrum called life.

Justice is what makes the world go round, it rules the world. No one escapes it, specially not an ostrich with its head buried in the sand. Clearly, the greatest evil in the world is ignorance.

No worries. As the saying goes, 'Some people change when they see the light, others when they feel the heat.'

There's a lot of heat coming our way brother, and change is in the air; embrace it.

Paul S

What will it take to get these frauds/thieves arrested? One can start by throwing their protectors in Congress--and the White House--in prison, long term. That'll make 'em sweat. This won't happen so the "Bleep you , taxpayer" will go on. I suppose we should be thankful Paulson didn't name Angelo Mozilo to administer the bailout finances. Mozilo was most likely passed over because he can't be trusted sending e-mails. HaHa.

don

Excellent Elaine.
I watched the debates last night with
McCain and Obama and coming away from
Broad generalizations of how each one
is going to fix this economy, let alone
Medicare to Medicaid. When Tom Brokaw asked
both of them about a time table, neither one
had any specifics,resolutions,dates, on any
economic policy, so it showed me that both of them have no plans at all. I watched the other networks to see their reactions on who
really did the best and who laid the ground
work to fix America. Polls will come out today and say who won, for myself, neither one did. But I did like it when Obama talked about AIG in the beginning and said
the CEO's should be fired. Smoke screen or not, its out there.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

I have a lot to say about the floating currency, collapsing interest rates and the election. Suffice to say that everyone still wants Santa Claus and the merry reindeer/helicopter dropping money, not the Uncle Scrooge 'sound money/savings' system.

About Thursday: this is when, FINALLY, all the biggest banks, the last few that still exist, must deal with settling all those credit default debts! Since all credit seems to be defaulting rapidly, someone owes someone a LOT of loot to the tune of around $6 trillion.

RobG

Fed trolls Canada to rescue U.S. banks

In a desperate bid to help U.S. banks recapitalize, Washington is dropping its inhibitions and reaching out to Canadian financial institutions to gauge their willingness to participate in rescue operations.

The Federal Reserve has activated a back channel that puts the central bank in direct contact with chief executives at Canada's largest banks and insurers, according to a person familiar with the dialogue.

They are approaching "banks with major assets in the U.S. like [Toronto-Dominion Bank] and Royal [Bank of Canada], because when they have a bailout situation they want everyone who is a potential buyer to look at it," the source said.

RobG

Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve has cut a key interest rate by half a percentage point, striving to steady the reeling financial markets just days after President Bush signed a $700 billion bailout into law.

The Fed announced its decision Wednesday morning and said that it acted in concert with central banks overseas, including the Bank of England.


PJSV

Elaine,

Your comment on MISH analysis, please. He says that we will have deflation, not inflation. I think he is right.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/10/real-price-of-gold-soars.html

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
/2008/10/real-price-of-gold-soars.html

RobG

Some funny comments on the rate cute over at calculatedRisk:

Nemo writes:
Japan wishes us round-eyes luck with our lost decade.
--------------------------
REBear writes:
150 more to go.
--------------------------
serf alan greenspend writes:
push on that string.
--------------------------
Gainas writes:
Other than a bump at opening today, this is a waste.

We are discouraging savings and encouraging added debt.

We are discouraging foreigners buying our debt.

At some point, we go so far into the hole and the $ gets devalued and we look like a big copy of Iceland.

I hope Russia can help us out.
------------------------------------
Hanging by a thread writes:
Ben should save the last bullet for Hank. Out of control now.
------------------------------------
the_economist writes:
Paulsons actions:

Bazooka
Grenade launcher
shotgun
pistol
slingshot

Next:
throwing stone
yelling loud
running in a serpentine fashion to the parking lot

John

"For as long one listens to mind, one will remain in this conundrum called life."

Too true.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Oh, Canada! HEH. We can offer our Canadian neighbors the Stanley Cup. And they can capitalize our banks and give us oil.


The G7 concert has some very sour notes.

Impatient Patriot

OK wizardess, I've done my chores and have finished all of todays posts reading down through this one.
You are a attention demanding wizarde$$.
Thank you for all your depth and care of presentation.
Sometimes I think I'm doing financial research, and then I run into gnomes and caves. Then I know I'm in a different location.
But I do sleep well. No gnomes in my bat cave.

ired skelton

See
"its derivatives......" Brown,
Ellen, et al.

ired skelton

See
"its derivatives......" Brown,
Ellen, et al.

WNC Observer

The truth of the matter is, the US really could withdraw to North America and establish a defensive perimeter halfway out in the Atlantic and the Pacific, and do just fine. We are blessed by very convenient geography.

The thing is, though, that Iceland is one of the very few allied countries that we really would need to retain under that strategy. We really do need to base ASW units there, or the Russians have an open door to sneak up on our east coast.

We can do without NATO, and we can do without most of the other overseas commitments with which our politicians have managed to entangle us. But we can't do without Iceland.

Of all the stupid, incompetent things the Bush administration has done, this takes the cake. This is a strategic disaster of the first magnitude. Using a chessboard analogy, this is like making a move so idiotic that you open the door to your opponent to checkmate you in just one or two more moves.

Those living in Washington, New York, and other major east coast cities might actually get as much as a whole minute's warning to contemplate the enormity of this stupidity before the sub-launched nuclear cruise missiles stike and put an end to the American empire once and for all.

Paul S

Now AIG wants another $37.8 billion. Did these AIG guys accomplish ANYTHING on their $442,000 junket? I'm starting to doubt AIG's commitment to solving this mess. Maybe they need to spend more time with their "recreational therapists", unwind, clear out their minds. Jump on the Paulson bandwagon for the big win. The middle class needs your help Wall Street. HaHaHaHaHa.

Dutch

This is so ridiculous its pitiful. Congress should have followed the McHugh plan and cycled out the old money and went to a gold and silver standard. Its our fiat currency that got us here in there first place. The US really needs to declare martial law and give jimmy carter control of our nukes. We need a sergeant major from the army and a gunny from the marines and master chief from the navy to head a tribunal over the executive , legilative, and judicial branches of the government. All witness will be given immunity and stripped of their citizenship. Close the borders and declare neutrality before these dumb bastards leave mushroom clouds up and down both coasts.

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