Taiwan And China Will Join In This Decade!

January 12, 2008

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The Chinese saying goes: “true gold fears not the fire of the furnace”. I got this from the official website of the Kuomitang web page. They won the election in Taiwan, a stunning victory not expected by Americans and indeed, the importance of this victory is studiously being ignored in the media but not here! For I expected this to happen, I have written about the KMT and Chen, the present leader of Taiwan. This is a long and interesting story! And today's news is a tremendous triumph for Hu's diplomacy. He is, bar none, the world's greatest diplomat. Historians will study his passage through the tangled rose bushes of world diplomacy. And now, Taiwan will finally get their panda, too!

Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party,

Ta which supports closer ties with mainland China, won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections Saturday in a major upset for President Chen Shui-bian.

The opposition victory is a massive blow to Chen's government, whose hard-line policies were aimed at formalizing de facto independence for Taiwan. Chen, who has been president for eight years, must step down after the presidential elections on March 22.

This is big, big news. So you won't see in our media. No empire survives long if it is as stupid as the hindquarters of a stegosaurus. The US firmly believes in a fantasy diplomacy which is why Bush was blubbering all over the Middle East while Hu has been patiently waiting for the ripe fruit of Taiwan to fall into his lap. This changes many things. I fully expect Taiwan to now begin to triangulate even faster than Japan and Japan is furiously triangulating with China. Hu's victories in this quarter are astonishing. No longer is Japan sneering at China. The leaders are exchanging visits and having top secret meetings where they work out details to nettlesome things like the business about the yuan and yen being undervalued vis a vis the dollar [hint: not in our best interests here]. So now, Taiwan will get to join the dance and the three will interact in a complex and luscious little threesome and we will not even figure out, our goose is cooked. Until it is served for dinner.

The US is utterly unprepared emotionally and financially for Asia to form a multi-level alliance against us. Japan wants us in their back pocket and they wish to use us as a negotiating tool but they are not interested in preserving our power in itself. The US military wanted Japan to fund our bases there recently and this was turned down, quite obviously. They want us to accumulate debts, not have them be taxed directly for our protection forces. But events are moving fast. The US is floundering financially and the Japanese can feel the chill wind of another recession coming on.

KMT will not abuse its power of majority," said Wu Po-hsiung, chairman of the Nationalist, or Kuomintang, Party. "Instead KMT will use it on stabilizing the society, uniting the nation and restoring the image the parliament should have."

There are 17 million Taiwanese registered to vote from a population of 23 million, and the turnout was 58.5 percent.

A major election issue was the economy, political observers said. Salaries have remained stagnant and unemployment is high in one of the world's top 20 economies, while the prices of consumer goods have soared -- at the same time as China has enjoyed an economic boom.

Absolutely everyone has inflation but Japan. Ahem. And the US was, as with all the Asian countries, the destination of much of the manufacturing of goods but over time, this has been shifting. The natural force of economic energy is for Taiwan to be attracted to China. Taiwan watched stupidly, with their mouths open, as Japan built factories in China and then, using them, undersold Taiwan in the US. The loss of market share due to hostilities to China have been IMMENSE. And now, will end. The two Chinas, close in so many ways, will get closer rapidly. China would love to do business with Taiwan and draw them into the Chinese sphere, bit by bit.

The Nationalists have promised to boost the economy by allowing Chinese tourists to visit the island and arranging direct flights between Taiwan and China.

My father was the FIRST human to fly directly between Taiwan and mainland China back in the 1970's, doing diplomacy for President Carter. This was so top secret, I didn't know about before it happened. Heh. To see this happen regularly will be a delight. Here is the BBC's take on this very important news:

Taiwan nationalists in huge win

Taiwan's opposition nationalist Kuomintang (KMT) party has won a landslide victory in parliamentary polls, official results show.

The KMT, which wants closer ties with China, secured 72% of the seats in the 113-seat chamber, beating President Chen Shui-bian's party, the DPP.

The independence-leaning president said he was "shamed", resigning as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party.

The elections are seen as a barometer for the presidential poll on 22 March.

China regards Taiwan as a renegade province that should be reunified.

A fair enough article. The US has to think about this for several days before all the right wingers who infest our government and the liberal media can begin screeching. They used to love the KMT and to throw brick bracs at them will take some doing. The Chinese will not let us have this historic change be 'disappeared'. So I hope to have lots of fun, mocking American pundits. Let's visit the official web page of the KMT:

KMT:

For more than a century, the KMT and the Republic of China have been a united entity. All along, the party has been the leading force behind the country’s modernization, making great efforts to develop the country and improve the wellbeing of the people.

Early on in its history, it fought a revolution to establish the Republic, then brought down Yuan Shi-kai and restored the legitimate government. It organized the Northern Expedition to unify China, and undertook political tutelage. It led the nation in a long war of resistance against Japanese aggression, writing and implementing the Constitution of the Republic of China after the war. It fought the communist rebellion, defending and building Taiwan as a model province of the ROC.
*snip*
In March 2000, the party was reeling from defeat in the presidential election and from losing the majority in the Legislative Yuan. However, the party supported the new Chairman, Lien Chan, vowing to carry on party reform. It vowed to stay committed to its manifesto; to reaffirm the party’s objectives; to reinvigorate the life of the party; and to rouse the party’s competitive spirit.

We firmly believe that the re-forged KMT will, like a phoenix, rise above theses setbacks and be born again. History will show that the KMT is the only party that can truly defend the Republic of China. Only when the KMT returns to power will the maximum stability and progress of the nation be assured.

Both Chinas want stability and prosperity. Since both now have the same goals, it is only a matter of time before they form a joint front and take common cause. I see no barriers now. Under the guidance of Hu, with a friend in Taipei, we will see a flurry of red carpet deals, joint statements and huge state dinners. My dad, when on a mission deep in China back in time, right after Mao died, had a heart attack. The communist party had this huge feast prepared for him but he was taken to the best hospital for the same care Mao got a year earlier.

So they moved the feast to the hospital! Heh. Can't complain about hospital food.

In this case, Hu will pull out all stops. Unlike Bush's insulting refusal to have a state dinner for Hu when he visited the US, Hu will have not just a state dinner but an IMPERIAL FEAST for the Taiwan delegation when they come in the future, probably next year since it takes time for these sort of delicate operations. Here are some past articles I have written about Taiwan and China that fill in the background to this groundbreaking news development:

Panda Diplomacy

The fact that Taiwan has invited the communist leadership to visit Taiwan is startling enough news. The fact that the Chinese quickly refused it and set conditions on it is also revealing. Obviously, they feel much stronger about this matter and believe they now hold the upper hand. The American weakness is now so great they can be obvious about their own plans which are moving forward rapidly. All they have to do is put together a coalition in the next election and win it. They will bend all their energy and money in this enterprise. Many carrots will be offered. They understand this is how one wins elections. Just like in America during the last election, eager to buy votes, the candidates running for office never mentioned raising taxes. Bribes do work.

One of the ruling party's greatest concerns is that China will insist Taiwan accept the pandas as a local Chinese government rather than as a self-governing entity.

"If we accept the pandas that means we're admitting ourselves we're a local government," said DPP lawmaker Hsu Kuo-yung.

Now the President of Taiwan Wants to Visit China
May, 2005

Front page news all over the world, back page news in America:Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has urged the Chinese government to open talks with his administration.

After the Nationalist Party surrendered to the Communist Party of China the ruling party in Taiwan suddenly decides it is time to have "direct" talks. The only item the Chinese government has is creating a time schedule for reunification. So far, they patiently built up contacts over many years. The Tiananmin Square suppression and massacre set back their plans but that is already in the dim past, so to speak.

China refuses to talk to Mr Chen until he signs up to their one-China policy - something which would be political anathema for him, she says. says the BBC. Absolutely. Note how the Chinese were silent while Japan twisted and turned, desperately trying to not meet Chinese demands. Then Undersecretary Feith suddenly inks an agreement with China which essentially means we cannot do anything military near China without first letting them control it to some degree. This was another signal surrender of real power.

The Chinese have just begun.

THURSDAY, APRIL 28, 2005

Historic Moment: Two Foes Formally End War

Now you would think this would be headline news. The news of troops withdrawing from Lebanon (hello, civil war time!) got loving and close coverage in America. Every little propaganda piece flung out of the Vatican is immediately regurgitated in America. The long death of the old previous Pope dominated headlines for weeks in between headlines about a dying brain dead woman.

But when the world's biggest economic power finally succeeds in winning over a previous foe who is vying for the Presidency of one of the world's top economies, dead silence in America.

This is most odd because "who lost China (to the commies)" wracked the State Department after WWII and led directly to the HUAC hearings run by far right winger, McCarthy. An entire era was named after him. The USA was the sole supporter of the Nationalist Party in China and when defeated, protected and coddled them when they took over Taiwan.

Now let's go to one of the very few American papers carrying this story with some analysis:

Taiwan: China could steal its allies
January 10, 2008

TAIPEI, Taiwan—China could undermine Taiwan's diplomatic standing in the run-up to key elections this weekend, the self-ruled island's foreign minister warned Thursday, amid signs that two of Taipei's allies were considering switching ties to Beijing.

Taiwan and China split amid civil war in 1949. In recent years, China's rising political and economic clout has helped it persuade more countries to recognize Beijing instead of Taipei, reducing the number of Taiwan's allies to only 24 -- most of them small and impoverished nations in Latin America, Africa and the South Pacific.

China was likely to make further diplomatic inroads at Taiwan's expense around the time of legislative elections Saturday and President Chen Shui-bian's visit to Latin America next week, Foreign Minister James Huang told reporters in Taipei.

"Various signs have shown that China is very likely to sap the morale of Taiwan's people around the time when legislative elections take place or when a top Taiwanese official makes an overseas visit," he said. "We are facing grave challenges on the diplomatic front."

They are correct to see this election as fatal to US power. And the idea that the victory could be so overwhelming is beyond the framework of these US analysts who can't change gears very quickly. As our financial situation deteriorates, our power evaporates! Taiwan has no 'allies' based on the previous model of leaning to pro-USA and anti-China. As my blog clearly showed, the KMT has already thrown their support behind China and will now work tirelessly to get into power in China, itself, one way or another. The merger will be interesting and this is no overstatement. It will be historic and Japan fears this tremendously.

Will Japan reject this or will Japan support this? Something we can't tell yet due to the uncertainties in Japan as the LDP get increasingly unpopular. If commerce collapses with the US, the whole scheme of reducing Japan's workers to great poverty will be a failure and there just may be some severe changes over there!

The foreign minister aborted a plan to visit Malawi last week to shore up diplomatic support because the African ally refused to receive him. That visit was planned after two senior Malawian ministers visited Beijing in what Taiwan feared was a prelude to the establishment of formal ties between Malawi and China.

On the Marshalls, Huang said, China was trying to undermine Taiwan's position there.

"China is still continuing its efforts to turn the Marshall Islands around," Huang said. "We are paying close attention to the matter."

Taiwan's concerns stem from the election of Litokwa Tomeing as the country's president. Tomeing has come out in favor of switching ties from Taipei to Beijing.

Separately, customer complaints forced Gakken, a Japanese company, to recall 10,000 talking globes that labeled Taiwan as a part of the People's Republic of China.

Tomeing is going to do the natural thing in this situation: there is much more potential business with China than with the US in the long run. And if the US is reduced in economic power, all the more reason to switch gears and aim at joint ventures with China. And last of all, I wanted to provide the link to an old story of mine about pandas and US zoos. It illustrates the cloudy thinking in the US and our inability to understand our proper place in the New World Order which isn't the American Century but rather, Hu's On First.

Misunderstanding Diplomacy, American Zoos Whine About Pandas Lent By China

Culture of Life News Main Page

Comments

[Al]

Wow. just goes to show the contrast of diplomacy from strength vs. clumsy, stupid threats. A conservative Taiwanese friend acknowledges reunification is inevitable.

[Elaine Supkis]

I have always said, China's price for keeping the US above water in our economic distress will be an unhindered reunification with Taiwan.

I bet the Taiwanese figured this out and are aiming to do it on their own terms.

[shargash]

Wow! What a delicious irony it will be if the KMT leads Taiwan to reunification with mainland China.

The neocons will be apoplectic. Many of them hate & fear China more than Muslims.

[OC]

Hi Elaine,

Don't forget Taiwan has a largest foreign reserves in Asia which would be working for China soon and has huge numbers of scientists researching in the critical US IT and military sectors....

The Japanese will have a severe fit as it too had trained large numbers of Taiwanese scientists in research....

At one stroke - China has access to more money and technology....

[Wotzi]

Thanks you for this..

Perhaps a wider recognition can be attributed with the term PANDASPEAK.. beats squeak and bluster..

[OC]

Hi Wotzi,

Wait for the 2 Koreas to re-unite and US troops pullout from Asia!!!

[Elaine Supkis]

China as $1.5 TRILLION in FOREX reserves, by far and away the greatest on earth. Japan is #2 with nearly a trillion themselves. Hong kong has $150 billion. Taiwan is a distant third in Asia.

[OC]

Hi Elaine,

Are u sure??

I read somewhere that Singapore has at least USD 200 billion in forex reserves (given to Temasek for investment purposes) and is behind Hong Kong and Taiwan (Taiwan is supposedly the leader)..as they started industrializing much earlier than Singapore by at least a decade!!

Don't forget that the British looted Hong Kong before they left in 1997 so the USD150 billion in Hong Kong's account isn't a true reflection of its earning capacity.

However, I don't think Taiwan has suffered the same indignity yet...so the Taiwanese figure is possibly a smokescreen!!

Mmm..then again, most Chinese are very secretive when it comes to finance matters!!!

Anyway, I think the most critical issue at hand is the Korean re-unification 'cos it would signal to Asia that America is definitely on its way out..and China is the upcoming empire...shades of the Berlin Wall and economic collapse of USSR.

We would see lots of triangulation activities all over Asia (including Australia) once this happens...

[CEO Nutcracker]

All this while our swaggering cowboy twists arms around the Middle East for friendlier ties with Israel, and support for more flunky wars in Iran and Pakistan. We are sending National Guards into the Sanai Penninsula for God knows what. Soon war-weary troops will deploy to Lebanon to install another US puppet. More sent to Georgia, Kenya and Somalia to protect other IMF/US warlords.

Meanwhile, China is snickering while watching the dying empire circling the drain.
China can't cut loans off to the US fast enough. Why they've kept the 'Goodship Lollipop' afloat this long, is beyond me. Hu will gladly show our belligerent blatherer's what real diplomacy is about.

[CK]

Suppose I offer you a scenario:
You have 2 Trillion Dollars on hand.
You have the option of spending that 2 trillion to build armies and aircraft carriers and submarines and ICBMs and use them to devastate a large fecund and still quite sparsely populated country.
You can add to that 2 trillion another trillion just by selling that large fecund country much more cheap stuff and accepting their debt to pay for it for another 2 years.
at the end of the 2 years you do a bear run on the dollar and take a half trillion dollar loss on you assets but end up owning the whole damn fecund country without blowing it to smithereens.
This is the difference between diplomacy and intelligent economics and shock and awe and sacred sand economics.

[Froglegs]

Sounds like a lot of glee being expressed, and some of it seems to be made by people who apparently live in the large, stupid country thought to be reduced in power by Taiwan's acceptance of the inevitable. Bush won't be one who will be greatly affected by this - he can go anywhere. It is you and I who are stuck in this dying empire and it is we who will all go down with it, liberal, conservative, or Libertarian. We all go down together.
My view is; China is about to add a California -sized economy that it had been planning to acquire for years. The bluff is called and there will be no protection granted for the island by America or anyone else. Unification makes sense. If China can integrate it (and this is no small thing), China will immediately rival Japan in size and will assume the mantle of world's largest economy probably a decade or two later. Nothing on the outside can stop this from happening. We will adjust. We are already investing heavily in BRIC countries for this reason. America should still survive and Bush will go off to retirement with his Alfred E. Newman grin and the Democrats will come in to raise taxes and finish off the industrial machine. Kyoto is a good one, by the way. Bound the manufacturing of all the Western countries but let China pollute at will. Not good to be starting a career making anything in the West.

[CEO Nutcracker]

Yes CK, you are correct. and I am well aware that China is busy aquiring what is left of our financial and industrial assets. So is Saudi Arabia, Dubai,Spain and everyone else holding our counterfeit paper. Just want the funding of the bloodbaths in the ME to end like most people out there.

I totally agree with your scenarios and stated that Hu would give us a lesson in real democracy.

"Bush won't be one who will be greatly affected by this - he can go anywhere"

He can't go 'anywhere' without 30,000 MP's, secret service and weeks of clearing the area before his arrival. I think maybe Panama might be safe for Bush as that is where all the Bush family fortune is hidden, in banks and assets like hotels and other business assets. Bush I hid all the Iran/Contra profits and CIA drug money down there and that is where the chimp is hiding all of his dough from his ill begotten gains in Carlyle weapons sales and whatnot, from the illegal wars in Iraq and Afganistan. Oh, don't discount the POPPY money the CIA and Bush have made over the past 6 yrs in Afganistan. It's been very profitable.

[icemann]

“Rome is a city where everyone and everything is for sale.”
Attributed to Jugertha
From Sallust Jugerthine War

[Judy]

OC - as far as published figures for forex reserves go, Elaine's figures are probably more accurate, but who knows, Taiwan hasn't exactly been forthcoming about its stats in a long time. Hong Kong and Taiwan's forex reserves have been watched mainly as protection against speculators after the 1997 crisis, as for active investment, they may well have done it through various private funds, again, not exactly information in the public domain

Elaine- waiting for the conservatives to screech? Plenty of that seems to have already treverberated in webpages /forums around the world since those high profile investments. But there's no telling what the increasingly reckless and desperate DPP and Chen Shui Bian might do, after the "staged" shooting incident in the last presidential polls, it's hard to say!

[Right Democrat]

This election outcome is not good news for the U.S. or the people of Taiwan. I hope that Taiwan can continue as an independent nation although unification does look like a real possibility.

Taiwan is not only a free nation but also more of a true social democracy than China. Will the citizens of Taiwan want to give up their freedom of expression, social safety net and real trade unions for autocratic Chinese rule ?

Given the decline of U.S. economic and military power as well as lack of public international support,I can understand why many in Taiwan might conclude that there is no other alternative but to embrace China.

I think it is a decision that many in Taiwan will regret just as the average American will eventually recognize that their once great nation was destroyed by big business-controlled leaders.

[CK]

Right Dem:
Oh yes the absorption of Formosa back into the PRC will be almost as bloody as the absorption of Hong Kong and Macau has been.
Look how the HongKong and macau residents have lost all their freedoms and their social structures and their unions. And they had been errant for over 100 years, Formosa has been errant for 60.
Froglegs: If you cannot differentiate glee from sorrow, stay away from funerals.
CEO: The latest and greatest acquisition of the Bush family is that very large ranch in Paraguay. Check out the Guarani aquifer.
Today is oil tomorrow is water.

[JSmith]

"Taiwan And China Will Join In This Decade!"

Which decade? 2001-2010? Not likely. 2008-2018? Probable.

"My father was the FIRST human to fly directly between Taiwan and mainland China ..."

After the test guinea pigs were launched?

[Andy]

I can understand why the Americans are so pessimistic about their nation. Today, China probably has the best leadership since the era of Zhou Enlai and Deng Xiaoping. Meanwhile, the US has the worst leadership since Nixon. But I doubt that China or anyone for that matter will want to see a destabilize ex-superpower. So be rational and enjoy your life.

[Hugo]

Well, can't blame the people who vote for KMT. It was not enough that CSB used fake assassination attempt to win the previous election, now CSB even went so far as to disturb Chiang Kai Shek, the founder of ROC in Taiwan, in his peaceful rest in his grave all for the sake of the upcoming election. Will you vote for a party that has dirty politician as its top leader?

[Elaine Supkis]

The logic of a Greater China is overwhelming. Just like in any growth period of an empire, the benefits of joining overwhelms the deficits of not joining. Taiwan is pro-USA due 100% to the fact that we are subservient to their aims and allow one-way trade.

This is collapsing so Taiwan's next move is towards China. Certainly, not towards Japan.

[CK]

Buried in the fine print today, another nation has recognized PRC as the Only China.
Malawi and PRC recognize each other and exchange ambassadors etc etc. In the fine print Malawi says there is only one China and Formosa isn't it.
Quemoy Matsu WHO LOST CHINA???? Among the earliest of my political memories is reading an editorial in the local paper titled Who Lost China? ( Not being a sophisticate at the time I didn't realize it was a syndicated editorial ). Anyhow my dad told me not to bother looking for it in the back yard.

[Pikachu]

In less than one month, Japanese PM and Indian President have visited China and greatly improved their relationships. Malawi has switched allegiance to China from Taiwan, with the Marshall islands are following. Then DPP lost the election badly. Hu and his cabinets are indeed amazing diplomats.

[Hana]

Apparently Dubya didn't read the Art of War given by Hu to him.

[JSmith]

I don't see reunification of Taiwan and the PRC as bad for the US at all. Taiwan has always been an annoying "obligation", one we took on Way Back When we were busily thwarting communism 'round the world. Now, however, we are in the position of having to stick up for Taiwan every time it makes independence noises, which has been often lately. They're not an "asset", they're a liability, and if the new government tones down the "independence" rhetoric, that will be a relief.

And, at some point in the near future, we need to tell the Taiwanese that reunification is something they need to work out with the mother country on their own.

[Andy]

The only thing in common between PRC and Chen Sui Bian is that both agree that the status quo can't be maintain any longer. The US has an illusion that every thing will be static.