Earth news: Geologists Believe San Andreas Is About To Blow

Australia_pushing_pacific_big
Elaine Meinel Supkis

This morning I noticed a small quake at the bottom of the Great California Rift Zone and two at the top end where it plunges into the Pacific. Then a third one hit a few hours ago, all in the same area, most ominously, at the very dangerous 10 kilometer depth. The inevitable is going to happen and not at some distant time.

Assoiciated Press:

It's the geologists, emergency planners and historians who seem to do most of the worrying, even in this year of heightened earthquake awareness for the 100th anniversary of San Francisco's Great Quake of April 18, 1906.

Several faults lurk beneath this region, including the San Andreas Fault on the west side of the Bay area, but geologists say the parallel Hayward on the Bay's east side is the most likely to snap next.

"It is locked and loaded and ready to fire at any time," said U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Tom Brocher.

For the last three months, I have watched with rising alarm as the plate that hosts Australia has jerked and jumped repeatedly with some pretty big earthquakes happening in places with little or no humans so no one except us earth watchers noticed this activity. Each time, more pressure was applied to the entire Pacific Plate and along the leading edge that is being driven under the shores of North and South America, scattered earthquakes have been increasing in frequency, a warning bell if there ever was one!

When the Great Boxing Day Quake happened, it was pretty quiet over on this half of the planet. Since then, tremors have been occuring such as the surprising one in the Gulf of Mexico that, again, wasn't noticed (except here!) even though it was very significant, showing that the stresses released by that great event last Christmas is causing things to happen even in quiet zones not known for earthquakes.

The San Andreas is due for a big blow out. It is nearly exactly the 100th anniversarly of that big event. Deep quakes can cause devastation but the really dangerous ones are the 10 km events because this is where the earth is freest to move suddenly, it won't bang up against much, this is the very top levels of the crust so a seemingly stable house can jump dozens of feet in seconds. One danger is driving vehicles suddenly going all over the place, for example.

The other matter at hand is water related: all water systems will fail. Period. There is no way to flex enough to handle a jump of say, 15 feet, for example. This is why storing water in earthquake proof containers is so important and to not park the containers on shelves but have them on the floor, strapped together if they are less than five gallon containers.

The other item one needs is fire extinguishers. I am a huge believer in them, grew up learning how to use them since we lived where there were no fire departments. Fires are a tremendous hazard after a quake and snuffing them out immediately is of highest importance, for if there is no water, there is no effective way of stopping them if they get launched.

Keeping a blanket and water in the car at all times is also very highly recommended. I do this because you never know, we live in blizzard territory! In the case of earthquakes, one might be trapped in a car for several days.

The Hayward Fault runs through one of the country's most densely populated areas; experts say 2 million people live close enough to be strongly shaken by a big quake.

It slices the earth's crust along a 50-mile swath of suburbia east of San Francisco, from exclusive hilltop manors overlooking the bay to Hayward's humble flatlands. It snakes beneath highway bridges, strip malls, nursing facilities and retirement centers, and it splits the uprights of the football stadium at the University of California, Berkeley.

"A lot of these structures are going to come down," said David P. Schwartz, chief of the USGS's Bay Area Earthquake Hazards Project. He spoke with one foot on either side of the fault, marked by a crack that snaked through a parking lot in Hayward's business district.

I used to live right off of Telegraph Ave in Berkeley. I was cooking eggs over easy for the others in our little commune one lovely morning when a quake shivvered past our house. I was annoyed briefly because when the eggs were being flipped, the stove suddenly shifted sideways and two of them fell outside the pan. Then things fell down on me and I realized this was an earthquake so I tried to bolt from the kitchen only the door of the old Victorian building was wedged shut.

My roomates had to bang it open and we all ran outside.

Like I said before, paranoia in California isn't crazy. The "aw, who cares!" attitude many short term residents take is foolish. My family has lived there a lonnnnng long time. We have been through more than one blow out. This is why they should not be treated as a joke. Look what happened to "The Big Easy." It is now "The Small Hard."

Culture of Life News Main Page