San Bernadino Sector Of San Andreas Worries Scientists

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The San Bernadino sector of the San Andreas faultline hasn't had a significant earth event since 1690. The various sections of California along this great rift valley zone has to catch up with all other parts and since the tectonic plates are constantly moving deep down, this means the rigid upper surface has to suddenly jerk along, belatedly.

Associated Press:

Scientists have been keeping a watchful eye on the southern segment of the San Andreas fault near San Bernardino, which is overdue for a major quake. The last time it snapped was in 1690, producing an estimated 7.7-magnitude quake.

Short of being able to foresee the next San Francisco-like calamity, scientists have focused on buffering the damaging effects of quakes and have made significant strides in taking the Earth's pulse.

Within minutes of a temblor, the USGS posts maps on the Internet showing its epicenter and where the most severe shaking occurred. Scientists constantly keep tabs on seismic strain near sections of faults that haven't ruptured in decades.

They also are working on long-term forecasts that calculate the likelihood of a quake based on historical geologic evidence, in order to help prioritize which buildings and freeways to reinforce.

"Even if we can predict earthquakes," said Mary Lou Zoback of the USGS in Menlo Park, "that won't prevent buildings from falling down."

Studying satellite images of the San Berdino valley, one can see multiple developing disasters. One of the long rang, bad development is the fact that housing humans has eaten up many acres of farmland. When I was very little and we lived off and on in California and have many relatives there, both of my parents being born there and my father's family living there since the Gold Rush, even in my youth there were many acres of farmlands. In the valley system here, it is nearly all gone except the very fringes along the mountain ranges.

When there are great quakes and it is mostly farmland, aside from mudslides which are very dangerous or dam breaks, aside from being badly shaken up, there is relatively insignificant damage. In many countries, poor peasants live in mud huts which kill when they collapse but wooden houses don't fall apart so disasterously in earthquakes and when they do, they are not as likely to kill as mud walls kill.

But when you have dense populations not only do buildings rain destruction onto the crowded streets, fires rage. San Francisco and Tokyo both burned nearly to the ground when they had 7.5+ earthquake events.

Scientists have mapped the major fault lines yet this information, instead of being used by the government to prevent people from placing facilities on them, seem to have little or no effect. Here is a map I drew of San Francisco's development and where the major fault lines lie.
Click on image to enlarge.
This is a 3-D view of the mountains which have rumpled up alongside the San Andreas. Many buildings have been built not only next to this fearful faultline but right smack on top of it where it approaches the Pacific Ocean! Houses also march right up the ridgelines of these mountains and hug the bottoms, perfect zones for landslides. Just mere rainstorms brings down huge sections of this unstable landmass! Yet houses are built or rebuilt again and again in the same destabilized zones with no hinderance from the government.

One can't expect real estate agents to warn people! Like used car salesmen, they just want to unload the properties and collect their fees. Builders don't care, they are often long gone when all hell breaks loose.

So we would expect the government to show some sanity? Of course not.

If anything, they are the chief agents of ignoring obvious geological realities. Just like the levees in New Orleans, they build systems, encourage development, collect taxes and then sit there stupidly as it all falls apart. Over and over, people die because of collective refusal to weigh the obvious dangers of building in inappropriate places. If one expects to have a bottomless purse, one can do this forever but this is seldom a realistic plan.
Click on image to enlarge.
It is a shock to see how many miles of highway systems are built right smack dab on top of the nastiest earthquake fault line in the USA if not the world! The rift line in Indonesia is under the ocean which is why they have so many tidalwave events. In Africa, it is more similar to America, humans evolved rapidly thanks to the difficulties and constant changes created by the Great African Rift Zone's dynamism. So it is with California. Many places on earth get quakes, some devastingly such as the Mississippi valley where the New Madrid fault lurks. But in California, it is complex since it isn't merely one section of the continent is being peeled off like Africa as the hard knife of the Saudi Arabian landmass cuts right into the continent, severing off a long sliver of it, in California, the North American continent is grinding south while the outer edge of the west coast is rapidly hiking north to Alaska and on top of all that, the Australian Plate is pushing the Pacific Plate into North America, which means North America is the anvil, the Pacific is the hammer and the West Coast is the steel being shaped with each blow.

I remember the building of the interstate highway system and the building of most of the higways in California, except for a very small segment built in LA and Pasadena before I was born, everything else came after 1950. I watched that state fill up with people, I lived there off and on from 1953-1972. Each time I come back, I shudder to see the reckless disregard for reality. Only one time did I drive on the lower level of the McAurthur freeway, for example. I yelled, "This is crazy! We are going to all die if there is an earthquake!" and I got off as swiftly as possible. During the World Series, when the earthquake came and dropped it, I didn't need to see the damage reports, I yelled, "Oh my god, everyone on that stupid highway has been crushed to death." And most of the deaths from that relatively mild event were from that highway.

So why did they build it there and in that fashion? Why weren't the architects and engineers responsible for that crime arrested? They had no excuse. I was only 16 when I drove on that highway segment and I was nearly hysterical, trying to get away from it and for years, I warned people to avoid it totally, not to even drive on top and only that in an extreme emergency! I had no college degree, all I had was a lifetime listening to geologists and my parents talk about where to site observatories (stability is important! Heh---Mt. Wilson and Palomar! Gads!!!!)

Kitt Peak was chosen precisely because it was geologically stable compared to the California observatories.

But what I am saying is, there was no excuse for the McAurthur disaster. And god help all the poor people who will be driving on the highways that lie directly on top of the San Andreas. When the land decides to shift north or south by 25 feet in less than 6 seconds, it will be total chaos and virtually all traffic will be overturned or flying through the air since it will be moving rapidly when the land suddenly decides to join the fun.

The housing built at the point where the San Andreas plunges into the sea is doomed, too. I don't care how you build, it was all open farmland back in 1900. Ergo: no one died there. Today, it is dense streets and the nub end of some major highways and tons of houses. None of which should have been built there! I looked at aerial photos of SF from 1943 and it was still open farmland back then. This means 100% of the roads and houses were built long after geologists had identified and mapped the San Andreas! The real estate developers wanted to make money off the cheap farmland and the government gave them the green light and thousands of people will die or lose everything they own because the chances of that sector surviving a 8+ event on this particular neighborhood is 0%. What doesn't get torn apart will burn. There is no way any water systems will be functional. And we know from our recent experiences with New Orleans, the government is going bankrupt and is not functional at all.

San Francisco had its last jerk forwards exactly 100 years ago. Normally, it jerks along with 6+ events every 50 years or so. The longer it doesn't jerk, the more violent the event. This means San Bernadino could have a 50' jump when it decides to let loose! All the earthquake building codes are for much smaller events. There is no building code for a 50' jump event. As I have pointed out, the Great Boxing Day Quake has caused so many changes in the earth's crust, it has been writhing from the event for over a year. The rate of 6+ events is much higher than normal and usually, 8+ events happen once every five years not every 3-6 months! And 5+ events are nearly DAILY OCCURANCES.

Imagining that hyper-active California will not participate in all this is insanity. The only question for the next five years is, how many segments of the San Andreas are going to blow.

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Comments

[JSmith]

"Even if we can predict earthquakes," said Mary Lou Zoback of the USGS in Menlo Park, "that won't prevent buildings from falling down."

National Geo had an earthquake article this month (just like everyone else.) Seems the guys in Japan think you can predict earthquakes (all you need is enough data); the guys in California say you can't (even if you're given all the data you want.)

In Japan, there is even a law that says where the next "big one" is going to hit - the Tokai region. So most of their plans and preparedness work is focused there. Will the plates cooperate? Hope so!

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

It is like a great dragon that slithers under the earth only to emerge when and where it wishes.

But one can guess where it will strike, not when.