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8.1 Earthquake In Kuril Islands May Cause Tsunamis

Elaine Meinel Supkis

An 8.1 earthquake in the uninhabited Kuril Island chain may cause a tsunami if it caused any subsidence in the ocean's bed. For a week before this, many 4.0+ earthquakes shook the same area, centered on the same spot. Also, scientists wonder if certain land formations shaped like chevrons facing the ocean are caused by great tsunamis more than 600' tall.

One of the biggest public building projects in Japan in order to send money to outlying villages and towns, was to build huge tsunami walls facing the ocean.

A tsunami is expected to hit northern Japan and Russia's Pacific coast, the US Pacific Tsunami Warning Center says.

Japanese meteorologists say a tsunami of at least two metres (6.5 feet) high could hit Hokkaido and Honshu islands after 2110 (1210 GMT).

Warnings are being broadcast on all Japanese TV and radio stations advising people to move to higher ground.

It comes after an earthquake of at least 8.1 magnitude hit the Kuril Islands, north of Japan.

The earthquake struck about 390km (240 miles) east of Iturup, known as Etorofu in Japan, at 1115 GMT, the meteorological agency said.

For the last three years, whenever a mega-earthquake hits, another one follows in a mirror image. The Great Boxing Day Quake in Sumatra followed an 8 mag quake off of Antarctica a few days earlier. But before that quake, the same spot in Sumatra trembled with a series of 4+ quakes. It wasn't a sudden event but rather, it came in the middle of a series of quakes that lasted for half a year.

Since then, it has been growing quieter but the activity is now centered on the islands northeast of Australia which includes a new underwater volcano growing tall enough to reach the surface, and the Kuril Islands north of Japan and off of Siberia's coast.

DATE ----------------------MAG---KM DP--------REGION

5-NOV-2006--11:14:1----8.1----27.7-------KURIL ISLANDS

13-NOV-2006--06:30:33-5.0---29.0--------KURIL ISLANDS

12 NOV-2006--21:27:43--5.9 --47.9--------KURIL ISLANDS

09-NOV-2006 16:17:58---4.5--10.0---------KURIL ISLANDS

09-NOV-2006 04:20:47---4.8--10.0---------KURIL ISLANDS

Since a number of mega-quakes this last few years has twins, I wonder where this twin will pop up. Either Chile, which has been having a lot of 4+ tremors in the north/central regions, mostly off the coast, or...the USA.

Chile has had some terrific tsunamis in the past.

On May 22, 1960, at 19:11 GMT, an earthquake occurred off the coast of South Central Chile. A Pacific-wide tsunami was triggered by the earthquake, which had a surface-wave magnitude of 8.6, an epicenter of 39.5° S, 74.5° W, and a focal depth of 33 km. The number of fatalities associated with both the tsunami and the earthquake has been estimated to be between 490 to 2,290. Damage cost estimates were over a half billion dollars.

Aerial view of coastal area on Isla Chiloe, Chile, showing tsunami damage and wave extent. Two hundred deaths were reported here from the tsunami generated just off Chile's coast by the magnitude 8.6 earthquake. The inhabitants, fearing the earthquake, took to small boats to escape the shaking. The trough of the tsunami arrived just 10 to 15 minutes after the earthquake, along more than 500 m of the coast. Upon the return of the sea in a thunderous breaker, all boats were lost. The most serious effects occurred in an area extending from Concepcion on the Chilean coast to the south end of Isla Chiloe.

Aftermath of the Chilean tsunami in the Waiakea area of Hilo, Hawaii, 10,000 km from the generation area. Parking meters were bent by the force of the debris-filled waves. Note the scattered debris and the gutted foundation. In the area of maximum destruction, only buildings of reinforced concrete or structural steel, and a few others sheltered by these buildings, remained standing--and even these were generally gutted. Frame buildings either were crushed or floated to the limits of flooding.

The amazing ability of tsunamis, traveling often quite hidden from view, as a bulge, perhaps, thousands of miles only to rise up suddenly from seemingly nowhere and englulf everything, is something everyone should take seriously. When I was a child romping on the shores of many oceans, one of the warnings we all had were to never sleep on the beach and never turn one's back on the ocean.

I knew as a child, if the ocean suddenly withdraws, the waves reversing or getting suddenly very small and moving backwards more than forwards, to run like hell inland to the highest point if possible. Whenever I do visit a beach with lots of people on it, I see a happy attitude and people cheerfully ignore the ocean in front of them and sleeping on the beach is very common. Since tsunamis are fairly rare, this relaxation is quite normal. But also, dangerous.

It is like lightning: most people assume they won't get hit so they ignore lightning until they get hit. Since it is rather capricious (except for me) this means they can happily go through life playing chicken with a deadly force and survive. But quite a few are killed or injured every year. It never ceases to amaze me to watch people strolling around in thunderstorms. Once, I yelled at a man on the street to run inside, lightning was going to hit the ground really nearby. He ignored me and survived but a man a block away was killed by the lightning bolt I sensed so clearly.

Sporatic events are hardest to anticipate and react. The hardest events to anticipate and react to are earthquake-related. This is because there are few warnings but I believe, if there are more than four 4+mag quakes in less than four days, one should be alert for a much bigger quake.

Normally, there are very few 4+ events worldwide per day but ever since the Great Boxing Day Quake in Sumatra, this has been quite an active earth and we have quite a few such quakes every week. Still, today's quake followed the pattern: six or more 4+mag events right before the big one. And like the Sumatra quake, this was a very shallow event.

I was going to write about this yesterday but didn't have time, namely, how some curious geological structures are perhaps caused by tsunamis.

By SANDRA BLAKESLEE
Published: November 14, 2006

At the southern end of Madagascar lie four enormous wedge-shaped sediment deposits, called chevrons, that are composed of material from the ocean floor. Each covers twice the area of Manhattan with sediment as deep as the Chrysler Building is high.

On close inspection, the chevron deposits contain deep ocean microfossils that are fused with a medley of metals typically formed by cosmic impacts. And all of them point in the same direction — toward the middle of the Indian Ocean where a newly discovered crater, 18 miles in diameter, lies 12,500 feet below the surface.

The explanation is obvious to some scientists. A large asteroid or comet, the kind that could kill a quarter of the world’s population, smashed into the Indian Ocean 4,800 years ago, producing a tsunami at least 600 feet high, about 13 times as big as the one that inundated Indonesia nearly two years ago. The wave carried the huge deposits of sediment to land.

It makes some sense. Homo sapiens loves the ocean. Very early on, we lived on the shores of the oceans and scientists think all our outward migrations mostly happened along shorelines during the great Ice Ages and we invented simple dug-outs pretty early on and Australia was colonized by humans using dug-outs around 70,000 years ago. And during all this, several cataclysmic events happened which caused huge tsunamis and since humans don't merely hug the shores but also move well inland, the survivors saw the waves come towering in and were in awe as it killed everyone on the shore.

Which is why Poseidon's wrath was so feared, there are mythological tales of him rising out of the ocean and sweeping people into the deep. The sea god was also the earthquake god.

Madagascar also lies off the part of Africa that is closest to where India passed as it raced north to slam into Asia so spectacularily. I would presume, as it charged by, its geological dynamism caused all sorts of incredible events that caused more than one big tsunami to slosh ashore both on Madagascar and Africa not to mention Asia. Striking the Asian plate must have been quite a series of events that resounded across the entire planet, equal to any large meteorite event.

In an earlier story, I quoted this article:

THE Indonesian earthquake behind the Boxing Day tsunami that killed 300,000 people could be the first of a series of giant quakes that will rock the world in the next 10 to 15 years, scientists have warned.

The Mediterranean is among areas at high risk, particularly the coasts of Greece and Turkey, both popular tourist destinations. The scientists are urging the installation of a tsunami warning system there as a matter of urgency.

They found that quakes such as the one in Indonesia can destabilise the whole of the earth's crust, so that one is followed by others, often thousands of kilometres away, within a few years.

We aren't even past the first five years of earth change. When I look at the earthquake map every day, I note levels of activity. When all is still for 24 hours, I then expect a rise in shaking at one point and then a big event. So it has been this week: pretty quiet and then a steady increase in shaking in three or so spots and then a blow-out.

The chevrons facing the ocean in many places on earth probably were caused by mega-tsunamis. Many different things can cause these to happen. Certainly, celestial objects hitting the oceans are a prime candidate. So are sudden dropping ocean floors and volcanic eruptions. We do wonder if global warming isn't also causing a lot of stresses on the ocean floors. After all, more and more water is pouring off of melting glaciers and into the seas and this increases volume which means more weight is being redistributed around the earth while a great deal of ice is no longer weighing down several continents which begin to spring back which means all of the planet must rearrange itself, subterranean speaking.

Here is an article from 2005 about clusters of quakes in Alaska.

Don't look at California. Look at Alaska, espeically Rat Island. The statistics on Rat Island the last 48 hours is very alarming. There were only occassional earthquakes centered on Rat Island since the Great Sumatran Earthquake. But the last two days there were 12, all 4.0-7.0 richter events. This is identical to what hearlded the Boxing Day event. I was watching for a great quake there, checking the monitors on line every two hours that day. Got up twice at night, the second time, sitting all night, watching the data flow in, filled with sorrow for all those lost souls.

I fret about the obvious mega-quake future of California and the entire West Coast. Everyone there is relaxing about this possibility which is 100% certain to happen simply because it didn't happen the day after the Sumatran quake of 2004. But we are well within the 15 year time frame and worse, the even more important 5 year time frame. Japan faces California across the seas. Just last month, we had an unusual earthquake in Hawaii that wasn't volcanic but was plate tectonic. Something is moving and it can't be ignored.

Schwarzenegger is riding high on easy times and rising home values, the drop in housing values is only just beginning to bite in California. He should be warning everyone of this inevitable earthquake and the government there should be taking measures to insure people understand the very vital need to keep at least two weeks of drinking water available in case water is cut off, as it will be, in a great quake running along or athwart the San Andreas Fault complex.

The East Coast can be wiped out by a tsumami, too.

By Ali Ayres

The risk of a landslide in the Canary Islands causing a tidal wave (tsunami) able to devastate America's east coast is vastly overstated. That is the view of marine geologists studying ancient landslides in the area.

In typical Canary Island landslides, chunks of land break off in bits, not in one dramatic plunge, they argue.

This contradicts previous warnings that an Isle of Man-sized chunk of land could fall off the island of La Palma into the sea, causing a mega-tsunami.

However, the researchers behind the original claim are sticking to their guns, pointing to evidence of catastrophic past events in the region.

Hoping the volcanoes in the Canary Islands will only shift in increments is wishful thinking. As geologists look at the many wonders of this planet, the realization has dawned only reluctantly, the idea that many things we see today are the results of terrible, huge, unimaginable events, slowly dawns.

Considering how dynamic the earth system is, this really shouldn't surprise us all that much. If the earth were as dry as Mars or crushed by relentless atmospheric gases like Venus, then nothing changes much after a while. But our system is very fluid and dynamic.

And here is a movie of the mega-hurricane with 400 mph winds on Saturn. We can only imagine the weather on this gas giant. Even the moons around Saturn are still quite dynamic as well as dramatic.

Tsunami

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Tragedy Of The Commons: Why States Must Control Environment

Elaine Meinel Supkis

All the news without exception, concerning pollution and the decimation of the ecosystem, is bad or worse. On every level, human incursions into all spheres of nature is destroying everything rapidly. We are eating our gingerbread house planet. And then a very evil witch, Mother Nature, will eat US.

I often say, 'If wishes were fishes we would all be in the sea,' when people demand the impossible.

By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

There will be virtually nothing left to fish from the seas by the middle of the century if current trends continue, according to a major scientific study.

Stocks have collapsed in nearly one-third of sea fisheries, and the rate of decline is accelerating.

Writing in the journal Science, the international team of researchers says fishery decline is closely tied to a broader loss of marine biodiversity.

I did extensive swimming in the sea and rivers of this earth. I remember when the Gulf of California was pretty pristine. Some places I used to swim were accessible only by horse or jeep. And I swam in beautiful seas filled with life. On shore and in the water. I have frolicked with dolphins and skimmed above giant mantarays, I have floated like a log while sea birds land on me, I have been able to lure many creatures into approaching me, curious fish nibbling, birds sitting nearly in my lap. It was a true Garden of Eden there.

Except for the starving people! I also remember them for the reason why I was swimming in these luxurious seas was because my parents were bringing food and medicine to dying families. Usually, after feeding the children, the parents would release us to run to the ocean and play.

Today, these same bays are now all tourist resorts. There are still poor Mexicans living nearby and they provide the raw labor to keep the Americans and Europeans cossetted. But the ocean these tourists see isn't the one I saw at all. Much of the lives there have been terminated and the teeming variety of life is gone. Not that the tourists will notice, they can't tell, having never seen it for real.

When I went to Europe, I had to swim the Rhine in 1968 because of my political escapades (um, heh, crossing borders illegally was kind of fun) when France shut their borders to French-occupied Germany. I couldn't believe it. I am an excellent swimmer but god, was that river polluted! I couldn't believe the chemicals in it and my dress was completely destroyed by this! When, dripping wet, I emerged on the German side of the river, a lady was walking her child and saw my dishevivalment as I was wringing out my disintigrating dress which was made of polyester. She screamed and covered her son's eyes and I said, 'Ich bin ein Rheinmädchen...hallo.'

When I swam in the ocean off of NYC, it was very filthy. Nearly no life forms, even tiny ones, could live in much of the area around the mouth of the Hudson River which was nearly as toxic as the Rhine. I didn't dare swim in the Ohio River, it made the Rhine look clean.

With the passage of various state laws regulating pollution, all this began to turn around. Soon, it became possible for life to creep back into the rivers which once were the home of much of earth's original evolution, the tidal bays, the continental shelves, all began to pull back from the edge of extinction of all life.

But this is no longer getting better, everything is getting worse thanks to Americans, for example, foolishly deciding to follow the people who worship the Devil that is Death, the Skull and Bones and Bohemian Grovists.

Thanks to the USA refusing to follow the sensible rules of the Kyoto Accords, we now have the CO2 situation running hopelessly out of control.

By ELIANE ENGELER, Associated Press Writer 15 minutes ago
GENEVA - Heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2005 and are still increasing, the U.N. weather agency said Friday.

The measurements coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization show that the global average concentrations of carbon dioxide, or CO2, and nitrous oxide, or N2O, reached record levels last year and are expected to increase even further this year, said Geir Braathen, a climate specialist at the Geneva-based agency.

I live where global warming is A-OK. The ocean will be within a short horse ride eventually and the climate will be like that in Virginia today, Virginia will be like Spain and the equatorial belt will be blistering hot and it will rain more, too, so I suppose I shouldn't care except for acid rain which is destroying all the lakes and rivers here and killing the trees.

And the plans are for more and more electrical production in America will come from burning coal. Well, prepare for the inevitable. All this coal will be burned to aircondition houses in the increasingly hot southern states. This deadly feedback system will of course cause things to greatly worsen. And people moving relentlessly south don't care. They don't want to see their own folly or its dire consequences.

The seas are being decimated on every possible level now.

Earthwatch Institute, Maynard, MA, 20 October 2006 — Finding one thirty-ton animal in the vast North Pacific may be as hard as finding a needle in a haystack. But when the entire estimated population of 17,000 grey whales is hard to find, it is cause for concern. Researchers reported very few sightings in the grey whales' traditional summer feeding grounds last season. Earthwatch teams are invited to join Dr. William Megill (University of Bath) as he explores the impact on these whales at the southern end of their migration, in Baja California, Mexico.

"We've just come off a second summer in Canada in which we've had next to no whales show up," said Megill, principal investigator of Earthwatch-supported research on grey whales in both British Columbia and Baja California. "Not only in our little area, but apparently throughout the traditional feeding areas from Washington on up north. We have no idea where the whales all went this year."

I used to swim where the whales gathered. They aren't birthing there because there is not only no food for them, there are too many humans and universally, all mammals prefer to birth without witnesses from other species especially the greatest, most dangerous hunting species on earth: humans.

Iceland, desperate to provide jobs, like Japan, wants to hunt whales. This is impacting on their tourism trade since they unilaterally decided to restart hunting whales. Japan just spent a tremendous amount of money bribing minor nations sitting on the commission to control fishing and hunting in exo-territorial waters and lands to vote for the killing of whales.

Many species of whales eat plankton which is the bedrock of all life in the oceans. As coral reefs bleach dead due to high water temperatures, plankton decreases immensely since this is part of their life/birth cycles. If whales can't survive on existing plankton, neither can other creatures and this decimation climbs rapidly up the ladder so fish begin to die and then birds and walruses and then lastly, polar bears.

A tremendous crisis is hammering all living creatures in, on and by the world's oceans. Next: humanity.

The tragedy of the commons is afflicting all of Africa as overgrazing explodes and tribal warfare tries to deal with what is an obvious overpopulation problem.

The tragedy of the commons develops in this way. Picture a pasture open to all. It is to be expected that each herdsman will try to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons. Such an arrangement may work reasonably satisfactorily for centuries because tribal wars, poaching, and disease keep the numbers of both man and beast well below the carrying capacity of the land. Finally, however, comes the day of reckoning, that is, the day when the long-desired goal of social stability becomes a reality. At this point, the inherent logic of the commons remorselessly generates tragedy.

As a rational being, each herdsman seeks to maximize his gain. Explicitly or implicitly, more or less consciously, he asks, "What is the utility to me of adding one more animal to my herd?" This utility has one negative and one positive component.

1. The positive component is a function of the increment of one animal. Since the herdsman receives all the proceeds from the sale of the additional animal, the positive utility is nearly + 1.

2. The negative component is a function of the additional overgrazing created by one more animal. Since, however, the effects of overgrazing are shared by all the herdsmen, the negative utility for any particular decision making herdsman is only a fraction of - 1.

Adding together the component partial utilities, the rational herdsman concludes that the only sensible course for him to pursue is to add another animal to his herd. And another.... But this is the conclusion reached by each and every rational herdsman sharing a commons. Therein is the tragedy. Each man is locked into a system that compels him to increase his herd without limit -- in a world that is limited. Ruin is the destination toward which all men rush, each pursuing his own best interest in a society that believes in the freedom of the commons. Freedom in a commons brings ruin to all.

Of course. I own grazing lands. I have to calculate how many sheep (no more, got driven out of business by flat earth trade policies!) I could keep over the summer, how many cows, what kind of grasses they need, each has totally different needs, etc. This care of my own fields is in stark contrast with much of the West where herds graze on public lands. Overgrazing is all too common.

The government has to regulate who grazes where but when the GOPredators take over, they throw all this care out an simply let people do whatever they want so long as they support the party. Ditto with forestry. One of my readers, Noel, sent me this email recently:

Urgent Message

The Finger Lakes National Forest is preparing to put out to bid a timber
sale (the Cotton-Mill sale) which includes cutting all of the last OLD
GROWTH white pine on the Finger Lakes National Forest, despite the fact
that they gave their word that they wouldn't do it!

Call or email the Finger Lakes National Forest and demand that none of the
white pine be cut for this or any future timber sale. Act on this now!

Call: Finger Lakes National Forest, Hector, N.Y. Phone: 607-546-4470.
http://www.fs.fed.us/r9/gmfl/contact/index.htm
Contact Mike DeMunn at 607-546-4902 for further information.

Those who care about the environment need to be alerted to the pending
deplorable action of the U.S. Forest Service in the Finger Lakes National
Forest.

They intend to strip the earth bare. Literally. I am not joking. This desire to turn all of this beautiful, amazing planet into Venus or the Moon is the end result of these sorts of policies.

In reality, the reason Europe still is green and habitable was due to sometimes vicious nature laws the ruling elites imposed on the peasants.

Since pigeons could themselves be regarded as vermin and capable of wreaking damage on grain crops, columbaria were strictly controlled by medieval law. While tenants and others were permitted to keep a few pairs of doves in their roof-attics, a dovecot, such as that at Ballybeg, was the exclusive prerogative of the landowner who, in turn, was restricted to one nest per arpent, a medieval French measure of land of about an acre and a quarter.

Much of European law was devoted to who could harvest what and where, who could hunt what and how, who could cut down trees or fish in ponds and rivers. Absolutely everything was put into law to prevent anyone outside of the ruling elite from using anything. Anything at all. Far from a free-for all, life was severely restricted. Only when chaos bloomed during war could the peasants run around, killing forest animals and chopping down trees. Then, control would be reasserted and the peasants pushed back into severe limits.

For example, when the Normans took England, they immediately changed the landscape and brought back in more wild nature.

The situation in which Gamelyn finds himself is not unlike that the Anglo-Saxon population experienced in the two centuries following the Conquest. One of William I.'s first acts as king was to institute the peculiarly Norman and very un-English innovation of Forest Law. Second in infamy only to the Domesday Book is William's making of New Forest, a region situated in the extreme south-central portion of the isle. William's appropriation of this land other regions, ostensibly to reserve game to himself, aroused great resentment and sorrow in the native population. As the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle recounts:

He made many deer-parks, and he established laws therewith; so that whosoever slew a hart, or a hind, should be deprived of his eyesight. As he forbad men to kill the harts, so also the boars; and he loved the tall deer as if he were their father. Likewise he decreed respecting the hares that they should go free. His rich men bemoaned it, and the poor men shuddered at it. (R. Trevor Davies)

These laws were rigorously enforced. With tremendous violence. Despite what people hear about medieval cleanliness, actually they had many laws about where one pisses, etc. Battles were fought in court over who gets the privilage of penning in the sheep and cows over winter in pastures. This is because, and I have used this at home, too, where the large animals winter, they fertilize the soil tremendously. My sheep lived in the garden in winter and slept in nearby sheds. In summer, they went out to pasture.

Only during the Dark Ages, did anyone farm where they pleased. And the population was low and the farmers dealt with their stresses by raiding each other and the Normans simply were better raiders who were Norse who came in and burned much of everything down. It is interesting how they stayed devoted to the concept of wild nature.

To this day, it runs in the veins of Normans. Like the British Crown or myself.

An interesting sidestory:

PEOPLE beginning to build their November 5th bonfires this weekend are being urged not to stack it in situ until a few hours before is lit - to save hedgehogs from a fiery death.

This is the time of the year when Prickles, one of Britain's favourite - and most useful - animals is looking for somewhere to curl up for his winter sleep and the underneath of a big bonfire looks to him like a five star hotel.

The British Hedgehog Preservation Society is also urging people to check the underneath of their bonfires before setting them alight unless a last-minute lodger has arrived.

This is the loveliest part of the British people: they have societies to protect various butterfly species, to protect moths, even. Turtles and carp. Whatever animal, each has some group, like the anti-fox hunting societies, who have caused a huge ruckus, people take a passionate interest in nature.

The USA has chosen another path: the 'exploit everything and then depart' route which may be because we are mostly recent immigrants who are rather footloose. This cultural ethos of refusing to curb appetites or curb rapine will lead to our destruction.

There is no 'New World' waiting out there for us. The End of Times Christians imagine they will get a magical planet if we have the Apocalypse. Sorry, guys. Hell on earth isn't a smart choice.

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