Elaine Meinel Supkis
It is now quite clear that there will probably be a major earthquake event in the West. In the last 2 days, the Juan de Fuca Plate triple juncture with the Pacific Plate and the huge North American Plate has had a series of 4+ mag earthquakes and they are all definitely along the subduction complex lines. Since they are all at the same, very dangerous depths of 10 km and since they are all under 5 mag, this means there has been hardly any real movement, just creaking and shaking. These look increasingly, due to their uniformity and constant action, to be a precursor for a significant movement of the plates which are stuck, right now. Land masses can shoot in various directions quite suddenly, in a matter of seconds. These are the 9+ quakes we all must brace ourselves to expect. Pretending this is a remote possibility is not recommended.
Click here for the IRIS global maps:
Several things jump out from this chart: the massive number of earthquakes in the tri-focal point off the Oregon coast is moving relentlessly southwards towards the dangerous San Andreas fault system on land. Also, two 4 mag earthquakes occured in Nevada which is offset to the east, and Baja California where the San Andreas continues. Both of these were at only 5 km deep which is very shallow. Not as shallow as the 4 mags that hit Canada and the most geologically dangerous place on earth, Yellowstone Park. This mighty caldera is matched only by the super giants in Sumatra.
There now have been over 20 4+ magnitude quakes along the Pacific/Juan de Fuca/North American subduction zone juncture. This is very significant activity. Before the Great Boxing Day Quake, we saw a series of such 4 mag quakes along that subduction zone. The fact that these events are happening along a long line is very, very troubling. It means this is not a local adjustment and then all is well. It means that the entire length is under tremendous stress. The fact that these quakes are fairly uniform and at the same level is a sign that this sector will suddenly move. The quakes are NOT moving anything right now, this is like when we shove something until it snags on a rough spot on the ground so we redouble our pushing and it suddenly shoots forwards.
So the Juan de Fuca plate which has the longest name for the smallest plate on earth, this will continue to be shoved under the North American continent but we know it isn't that simple. It is riding SIDEWAYS and is being shoved NORTHWARDS as it is also being ridden over by the North American continental plate which is moving relentlessly eastwards as the Atlantic plate continues to grow in the center.
Map of tectonic plates from Moorland School:
There are two major drivers in global plate tectonics: the fast moving Australian plate which is shooting northwards at a strange, mad rate and the Atlantic rift zone that runs from the north pole to Antactica. This is widening at a very fast rate compared to say, Africa's movements northwards. The oddity of the Indian/Australian plate that is wrapping itself around Asia is shoving the Pacific Plate northwards and is riding up over it rapidly. Eventually, Australia will cartwheel into Siberia crushing Japan and Manchuria and Korea into mountains even higher than the Himalayans.
Anyone living along the San Andreas complex must consult with government agencies to see what one should do in case of the inevitable. Reviewing civil defenses and preparing the National Guard for this situation is of high importance. Homeland Security, run by an alien Israeli who doesn't care if we die, should be working on this. But of course, our National Guard is in Iraq or in tatters. So I must warn everyone out West: you are on your own just like New Orleans. NOTHING has been fixed since that disaster. Nothing has been changed, Chertoff goofed off then and wasn't arrested. He is goofing off now. And so it Bush, our media and the candidates for President. Do NOT forget that while New Orleans was dying, McCain was celebrating his wretched birth with Bush and they were singing and laughing.
They don't give a hoot. And movie superstars won't save anyone, either. Conan the Barbarian is owned by Real Estate interests. Note how he protected California from the housing bubble.
Maybe we won't have a massive earthquake. Maybe Mother Nature will sit and wait patiently. She has all the time in the world. But we know this will eventually happen just as it always happens like clockwork in Asia.
I've been concerned about the progression on these quakes as well. I'm not a geologist, but have taken quite a few geology courses at the University of Oregon (in other words, an obsessive amateur knowing just enough to be totally off-base). The animation at the following web site shows quite a few quakes earlier this month above 44 degrees north and then new ones springing up further south:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/vents/images/apr08_webmovie.mov
Then a newer swarm this week is even further south (below 43 degrees north):
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/vents/oregon-quakes-ngorda.html
I found these links at the following site:
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/vents/oregon-quakes.html
I fear that the great unzipping of the stuck plates may be starting. I looked at the quake web sites after our family Jack Russell terrier acted the strangest he ever has (he hid under my desk at my feet for several hours on the 16th and then in his crate for about half an hour). He never acts like that (and hasn't since). It was as if he were hearing or feeling something that was deeply disturbing, and then it stopped. I live in Central Oregon -- but if the big one is coming, I would expect something here as well.
This was a few hours after low-level quakes at Three Sisters in the Cascade Mountains. Swarms near Maupin have been persistent -- Maupin is east of the Cascades, and a professor told me years ago that those on-again/off-again swarms that have gone on for many years may signal an eventual volcano. However, quake events that I've seen online in Central Oregon recently are similar to what I've seen before, but maybe something larger is happening that dogs can hear.
Is plate pressure building to something so big that it's sending out sonic sounds inland? I suspect that the quakes in the Maupin area (southeast of Mt. Hood) are related to the colliding plates heating things up there. Here is one link showing the most recent Maupin area quakes (th e image which will be changing; quakes disappear from that web site after a few days):
http://www.geophys.washington.edu/recenteqs/Maps/121-45.htm
I'm watching and wondering -- but have been wrong before when trying to figure out future quake activity. By the way, you have a great write-up on your blog.
Posted by: Jrt2 | April 24, 2008 at 08:39 PM
No human can predict any great quakes. But we can't ignore obvious warning signs. This is why it is a good time to discuss 'what to do in an emergency'.
And animals do notice odd things like these noises. They have very acute hearing. I know that all the quakes I have been in, my animals run off and hide beforehand.
Also, they can smell vapors that are very, very small. Dogs, in particular.
Thanks for the links, by the way. The geologists for all the states do heroic work. No one listens to them, it seems! It isn't their fault. They give warnings and try to stop developments on fault zones but they are ignored by the politicians.
I have nothing but highest respect for all geologists. But I also know most have their jobs via the government and will be lose their jobs if they get too noisy.
Posted by: Elaine Meinel Supkis | April 24, 2008 at 09:32 PM
There was this project of a satellite some time ago, a satellite capable of detect small variation in the atmosphere, variations product of different materials expelled by the earth every time it was about to move in form of quakes of different sorts, so it its, it has been for quite a while possible to predict quakes with high percentage of accuracy and several days ahead but of course money is invested in weapons of mass destruction or profitable things instead of looking for common wealth
Posted by: avan | April 25, 2008 at 12:22 AM
Wow. Today, it is growing worse! Will update.
Posted by: Elaine Meinel Supkis | April 25, 2008 at 09:17 AM
I know geologists have to be very careful when dealing with predictions. Panic is never a good thing -- especially when it's based on false predictions. Elected public officials are especially reluctant to scare people away from their homes and businesss. Even if a well-informed geologist is sounding the alarm, it doesn't mean it will get attention.
In 1980 Mt. St. Helens bulge was enormous and growing rapidly before high-profile people were publicly willing to say it might erupt soon. But I'll bet anything that some geologists were dismissed when they started warning everyone that a big eruption was very likely.
So often geology time is not like people time. It is very, very, very, very slow -- and then can be instantaneously catastrophic after decades of warning signs. I've been watching the Mono Lake activity for decades and thought several times that it's going to explode any day now. But it hasn't.
By the way, I've noticed since the 1980's that Mono Lake quakes tend to increase when Mt. St. Helens starts a new eruption stage. We have a lot to learn about the underlying mechanisms that affect thousands of miles at once.
I look for patterns and clues in Earth's behavior, and every once in awhile I have been right when thinking a quake or eruption is about to happen in a particular area. But I'm wrong much more often -- especially about timing. My lifetime is but a nano-second to Earth's. An imminent geologic event could be two or three nano-seconds away according to Earth's clock, but I'll be history by then.
Posted by: Jrt2 | April 25, 2008 at 12:48 PM
Hello Elaine,
Your comments on plate tectonics are spot-on and I could only add that during the Christmas 2004 Tsunami in Asia several deep artesian wells in the Grants Pass, Oregon area apparently rose a dozen feet or more.
WOW! If this doesn't give pause to consider the implications I guess nothing does.
By-the-by, have you noted the flurry of shallow earthquakes in the Reno, Nevada area lately? Now why would Mother Earth shake, rattle and roll in that part of the planet?
Kindest regards,
PFO
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