Elaine Meinel Supkis
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, many parts of it ran off to NATO and the USA and became increasingly hostile to the Russians. Under Yeltsin, they could do whatever they wanted and still get nearly free energy under the old Soviet deals. Now that Putin has taken over the energy industry, the free ride is over. All of Europe is having a very hard time understanding they must cooperate with Russia if they want energy.
&hearts Earlier this month, Putin twisted arms in Belarus.
Published: 29 December 2006A new offensive in the European gas war loomed last night after Russia vowed to press ahead with a threat to cut off gas supplies to neighbouring Belarus on New Year's Day leaving the country of 10 million in the cold and European supplies in peril.
With just three days to go before the current contract expires, the two countries have failed to agree a price for Russian gas next year and talks appear deadlocked, raising the prospect that Belarus will be left without gas in 2007 and Moscow without a reliable partner to transit its energy exports to points further west in Europe.
Last month, the European negotiators jointly decided to bark mightily at the Russian bear and then haughtily demand Russia give them energy or else they would bark in unison even louder.
The bear slapped them down. He decided to cut off their energy and ship it to China as my cartoons showed. Duh. The barking of the Europeans ceased and turned to standing on hind legs, begging for bones and rolling over to expose the belly. The energy continues to flow and the bear turned its attention back to its own borders.
All energy producing nations use energy products for diplomatic and political ends. Period. Any that don't do this are either captives of imperial powers like Iraq or subverted by the major empires like Mexico. I will note citizen unrest in countries like these are very severe.
When the older empires in Europe and their new front-leader, the USA, huff and puff about how dare the Russian people control energy and use it to make their nation stronger, it makes me laugh sardonically.
Russia is the major exporter of energy in the world. This puts them at the top of the world in 100 ways they are just beginning to explore. When communism fell, they disintigrated because they couldn't transform their nation into an industrial power. Now that the Chinese have successfully done this, the model for rebuilding Russia is being embraced by Putin who is not going to use the European and certainly not use the American model.
Our own country is in serious financial trouble at every possible level. Since we have handed over our own government to a bunch of thieves who are extracting our wealth and shipping it away while piling up IOUs with the entire planet, we still have the appearance of wealth only because the loans are still flowing in...temporarily. People want to invest in Russia but they can't do it the way they do it here. And this irritates them greatly which is why these moneylenders are egging on ministers to bark at the Russian bear.
&hearts Belarus decided to play a really, really stupid diplomatic game over energy.
Belarus and Russia have reached an agreement with OAO Gazprom, the Russian state gas monopoly, on a gas price for 2007, a Belarusian official said on Saturday. But Gazprom's chief spokesman said there was no deal.Vladimir Semashko, the Belarussian first deputy prime minister said Belarus would pay $100 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas - $5 less than what Gazprom has demanded in talks to reach a new supply contract and avert a New Year's Day cutoff of deliveries to Belarus.
But Sergei Kupriyanov, the Gazprom spokesman, told The Associated Press that the statement was merely "Semashko's point of view" and the Belarussian position in negotiations.
The Chinese are tremendously careful to insure all public pronouncements match negotiation protocols. Belarus thought they could jump the gun and announce a decision rather than give Russia the courtesy to make a proper, joint announcement. Putin has been studying the Chinese diplomatic machine which is the top performing machine on earth, bar none.
The Chinese are sticklers for protocols and using the right words at the right times. They orchestrate everything so it fits in a strict model so small permutations can mean great things. This clock-work style of diplomacy and negotiations means the Chinese can move things forwards in a controlled way which benefits them because they don't have to lose face or back track or appear weak and wavering.
So when Belarus ran off the European powers to crow that they had a contract when there was no signing ceremony, etc. Putin slapped them down. This means he might play more hardball with them until the figure out the obviouis.
Created: 29.12.2006 13:10 MSK (GMT +3), Updated: 13:10 MSK
MosNewsThe European Commission says it is remaining calm amid a threat that Russian natural-gas supplies to the European Union could be disrupted due to a pricing row between the Russian state-run energy giant Gazprom and Belarus.
The Radio Liberty has quoted European Commission spokesman Amadeu Altafaj Tardio as saying that “there is no crisis” yet, and that certain EU member states have more than enough gas stocks to deal with any disruption.
Yet again, instead of making nice to Putin and Russia, Europe barks and growls. Yeah, they have enough energy to do without...if they shut down most of their industries. They dearly would love to fool Putin into thinking he has to desperately sell them cheap energy or else.
The Russian people aren't so easily fooled. A look into the past shows how all the states surrounding Russia gleefully ran off to make private deals with European imperialists while at the same time, poking Moscow in the nose.
&hearts Here is an old speech by the FM of Belarus to the European powers.
First Deputy Foreign Minister
of the Republic of Belarus
Sergei MartynovExactly one year but one day has passed since the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council was established in Sintra. It has been conceived as a cooperative mechanism for political consultations and practical partnership. Today 1 would like to stress that without any doubt the EAPC is up for a good start. Having worked together allies and partners managed to approve an ambitious EAPC Action Plan for 1998-2000. A meaningful political dialogue developed within the EAPC on the most topic al issues of European and regional security. A Euro-Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Center is about to be established and 38 officers from thirteen Partner countries are to serve at NATO Military headquarters - to mention just two achievements of the EAPC in the field of enhanced practical cooperation.
The EAPC has already proved its value as an instrument of confidence building and conflict prevention. The most important thing is that everybody around this table knows that if there is a need and if a decision is taken to apply certain measures to prevent or curb a conflict, forces and resources will be there. The very knowledge of this might stop potential conflicts from surfacing.
I like the line about how knowledge of this military/economic relationship with hostile European powers will stop possible conflicts with a certain you-know-who. Under Yeltsin, Russia grew poorer and weaker. Like with the USA, if a country follows a craven drunkard who is corrupt, they fall into bankruptcy. This happened to Russia.
Today, Russia is much stronger. And growing more powerful by the hour. Since Belarus doesn't want friendship with Russia, they get to pay the same rates for energy as anyone else who wants to have the same stuff. It is only fair.
Until the West ceases to carry a chip on the shoulder, we should all reconsider our options which are very few indeed. Cooperation and consideration coupled with controlling our own appetites is the key to power and success in the future. The American model of eat, drink and be merry and ignore the Chinese bill collector at the door, is a model for destruction and bankruptcy.
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