Elaine Meinel Supkis
The political dispute between Russia and Belarus has taken a dangerous turn. Belarus has shut down the oil pipeline to all of Europe and is demanding Russia give them oil for half-price or else. Russia says, Europe should deal with this, it is their problem.
Russia has cut oil supplies to Poland, Germany and Ukraine amid a trade row with its neighbour Belarus.The Russian state pipeline operator, Transneft, said it cut supplies on the Druzhba pipeline to prevent Belarus illegally siphoning off oil.
The European Commission said the cuts posed no immediate risk to European supplies but it was seeking an urgent explanation from Belarus and Russia.
Putin continues to play hardball with energy. Former Soviet states have been trying to become part of NATO and the European Market and when they do this, Russia ceases special sales deals with trade, oil and natural gas. These battles have been rather nasty in the past and continue on this track with the latest being Belarus.
During December, the Europeans went to Russia to criticize Putin and demand he do what they want, not what he wants. Nothing good came of this. The Europeans huffed and puffed and blew their own house down. They decided they would go elsewhere for energy only no one is delivering it as cheaply as Russia.
If the Europeans wanted security vis a vis Russia, all they have to do is the normal diplomatic games: be very, very, VERY nice. Kissy-kissy and all that. The hectoring husband or nagging wife game isn't working, obviously. Belarus was greatly emboldened by all the talk from Europe about facing down Putin and teaching him a lesson and making him bow to them. So Putin picked a fight with Belarus---a demonstration of his growing power and clout.
The European Commission said it was investigating whether the Russian move would have an impact on another branch of the pipeline, which runs to Slovakia and south-east Europe.The disruption is a factor driving oil prices towards $57-a-barrel
"I have also contacted our Russian and Belarusian authorities calling on them to provide an urgent and detailed explanation of the causes of this disruption," said European Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs.
Putin's actions are driving up the price of oil which the careless Saudis and helpless Iraqis have allowed to drop in price as desperate Bush struggles to make energy cheaper. His popularity at home is directly tied to the cost of oil. Putin wants expensive oil. It benefits Russia.
This week, Putin again scolded Europe and the USA over their sanctions against Iran. It seems a number of state-run military industries in Russia were put on the no sales to Iran list. Russia said this was not in the negotiations for sanctions at the UN. The USA and Europe, of course, laugh at this and think they pulled a neat trick on the Russians. Fooled ya! Hahaha!
Unfortunately, this is also why Russia is grimly watching Europe scramble about helplessly as the energy runs lower and lower, they are tapping their reserves which will eventually run out. And they will have to refill them with oil from Russia!
Throughout the years, I have watched this sort of stupid diplomacy with Russia. When Russia surrendered to us, we didn't rush in and fix their wrecked state. We looted it. The Europeans and Americans protect Russians who looted their homelands. We think it is really funny when we pull the wool over their eyes or make them look stupid.
Well, now is payback time. The Russians are scared of the Chinese energy and power. They would have cheerfully joined us in an alliance to curb Chinese power. But those days are long gone.
The Russian/China friendship is at the top of China's 'to do' list. The dragon is very clever and very intent on pleasing Russia on as many levels as possible. It is a real relief for Putin to visit China. He isn't treated like a leper. China would love cheap oil for it imports oil just like we do but the power they gain with a solid alliance with Russia is worth a somewhat higher price of oil for themselves.
Even when Bush is wildly unpopular with Europeans, the leaders there all cozy up to him and endure his spitting food on them, calling them as if they are servants and grabbing them suddenly from behind, etc, etc. He can hang from the balcony and hoot and throw feces and they will all smile. So why can't they deal with Putin?
Or anyone, for that matter? Soon enough, they will be banging at his door, cup in hand, begging for oil anyway.
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