Energy News

The Totally Insane US Government Energy Report

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Time to visit another official government study! I learn so much from these things. In this case, the document is the official Annual Energy Outlook by the President's Energy Information Administration. This study alternates between total fantasy and admissions of hard facts. But the conclusion is completely insane as are all the studies generated by officials working for Bush. Meanwhile, the US public pays no attention to reality and clings to the 'cheap and easy' energy assumptions of the Clinton era.

From Market Watch:

The nation's showing signs of growing acceptance for high gasoline prices, according to a recent poll conducted by AP-Ipsos.

Forty-six percent of 1,000 randomly chosen adults in a telephone interview said near-record gasoline prices will cause them severe financial problems, the survey released Friday showed. That's up from 43% a year ago.

But those cutting their driving fell to 62% this year from 66% last year, and those changing vacation plans dropped to 42% this year from 49% a year ago, according to the poll, which was conducted between May 15 and May 17.

I sense an aura of unreality. Namely, many people in the US are living in a full-fantasy world that has little to do with reality. Our country is the only nation on earth running a very huge trade deficit with the rest of the world. And one very big element in all this are energy imports. If we were exporting lots of say, automobiles to Japan, China and Germany, we could then have the luxury of using lots and lots of imported energy from the oil and gas producing nations.

But it is the exact reverse. The top three industrial giants all have trade surpluses with the US, in China's case, it is double both Germany and Japan's trade surpluses. So we have been basically selling off our own futures to pay for the energy we are determined to guzzle down no matter what.

China, for example, can't take our howls of rage over the trade imbalance with them if we insist on not paying any attention to our energy consumption. Our biggest energy trade partners are Canada and Mexico. Both of which also export value-added industrial trade! Even with the other oil producers of the world, say, Saudi Arabia, we buy more than we sell to them! And on top of that, they use our entire military machine for their own ends.

Ditto Germany and Japan. This is terrifically expensive.

Here is the Offical Energy projections for the next 50 years!

A large portion of the total U.S. resource base of onshore conventional oil has been produced. New oil reservoir discoveries are likely to be smaller, more remote (e.g., Alaska), and increasingly costly to exploit. However, higher oil prices, increased production with enhanced oil recovery techniques, and recent resource discoveries in the Bakken shale formation in Montana allow lower 48 onshore production to remain relatively constant at about 2.9 million barrels per day over the projection period in the AEO2007 reference case (Figure 79).

I am giving but a few paragraphs of this incredibly stupid report. Starting off here with speculation about future oil production, there is no reference to the Hubbert Oil Peak but it is there in big letters: '...new discoveries are likely to be smaller and more remote....and increasingly costly to exploit.'

This is the definition of the Hubbert Oil Peak: the most oil is pumped but the discovery rate starts to decline, the fields are smaller and harder to extract. Costs of pumping shoot up as volume begins to contract. If one tackles all the various possible contact points at once, one might be able to briefly pump a maximum amount even as the bigger oil fields fail but this is only a brief respite!

Once the secondary fields begin to fail, there is a steep decline which flattens out only because the price of the energy will be increasingly expensive and most users are ELIMINATED. One way or another. I would suggest, quite violently.

Because drilling currently is prohibited in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), the reference case does not project any production from ANWR. Alaska’s projected oil production declines from 860,000 barrels per day in 2005 to 270,000 barrels per day in 2030.

This means the last land-based easy to pump, relatively speaking---Alaska is actually very difficult---is going to be nearly drained in just 23 years? It is going to drop by around 600,000 barrels? That is a drop of 2/3rds! I know a number of people in Alaska today who think they will be high off the hog forever thanks to the oil credits they get. They love the high price of oil today. It is making their lives much easier even as it bankrupts the US due to the fact that our energy needs vastly outstrip the ability of Alaska, Texas and the Gulf states to feed our needs.

Considerable oil resources remain offshore, especially in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Deepwater oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is projected to increase from 840,000 barrels per day in 2005 to a peak of 2.0 million barrels per day in 2015 and then fluctuate between 1.8 and 1.9 million barrels per day over the last 15 years of the projection. Production from the shallow waters of the Gulf is projected to continue declining, from 470,000 barrels per day in 2005 to 290,000 barrels per day in 2030. As a result, total domestic offshore oil production increases in the reference case from 1.4 million barrels per day in 2005 to a peak of 2.3 million barrels per day in 2015, then declines to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2030.

The deep sea rigs have a downside we saw clearly in 2005 when a great number of them were destroyed or severely damaged by hurricanes. Due to el Nino, we didn't have any hurricanes in that vast bathtub last year but these storms are picking up again and as the sun goes towards a solar maximum, the storms will probably get worse and worse. Note the stuff about the shallow wells declining. It is only 470,000 and dropping. The industry is only guessing about how swiftly the present wells are depleting, generally speaking, all projections by 'experts' are like Wall Street gurus: they always see happy days and are always taken by surprise when reality bites.

The reality here is, throughout the history of energy extraction projections, nearly always experts grossly understate the rate of decline. For example, the oil pumping nations in the North Sea all thought the decline would be very slow over several generations. In less than three years, it is obvious to everyone the decline is tremendously rapid. I am betting this will be true with the remaining oil fields owned by American corporations here.

More Rapid Technology Advances Could Raise U.S. Oil Production

The rapid and slow oil and gas technology cases assume rates of technological progress in the petroleum industry that are 50 percent higher and 50 percent lower, respectively, than the historical rate. The rate of technological progress determines the projected cost of developing and producing the remaining domestic oil resource base. Higher (or lower) rates of technological progress result in lower (or higher) oil development and production costs, which in turn allow more (or less) oil production.

With domestic oil consumption determined largely by oil prices and economic growth rates, oil consumption does not change significantly in the technology cases. Domestic crude oil production in 2030, which is 5.4 million barrels per day in the reference case, increases to 5.7 million barrels per day in the rapid technology case and drops to 4.8 million barrels per day in the slow technology case (Figure 80). The projected changes in domestic oil production result in different projections for petroleum imports. In 2030, projected net crude oil and petroleum product imports range from 16.0 million barrels per day in the rapid technology case to 17.0 million barrels per day in the slow technology case, as compared with 16.4 million barrels per day in the reference case.

Cumulative U.S. crude oil production from 2006 through 2030 is projected to be 2.6 billion barrels (4.9 percent) higher in the rapid technology case and 3.3 billion barrels (6.4 percent) lower in the slow technology case than the reference case projection of 51.8 billion barrels.

And pigs will fly! We already import a lot of oil and natural gas as well as gasoline! For the last six years, we have imported gasoline from other nations who control gas guzzling with high taxes on gasoline. This refined product is rapidly rising in addition to raw oil imports! And this should give everyone a clue as to what will happen next!

After all, the US is menacing a major oil producing nation, Iran, and is destroying Iraq, another big producer. The malarkey in this report is designed to give cover for the oil companies to continue their destruction. Namely, they are pretending there will be oodles of oil pouring in from deep wells so we don't have to change anything, thanks to 'technology', we will be able to claim the US hasn't passed the fearful Hubbert Oil Peak after all!

But this is all counting eggs that not only haven't hatched, the nest they are in is up on top of this cliff that is very steep. We haven't the faintest idea, how many eggs are in these nests!

The future of unconventional oil and liquids production (such as oil shale, CTL, and GTL) will depend on oil prices. For example, CTL production is projected in both the reference and high price cases; GTL and oil shale production are projected only in the high price case; and no unconventional oil production of any kind is projected in the low price case.

In the reference case, CTL production is projected to start at about 40,000 barrels per day in 2011 and increase to about 440,000 barrels per day in 2030. In the high price case, CTL, oil shale, and GTL production are projected to be economically feasible, and total domestic production of unconventional oil is projected to reach 2.1 million barrels per day in 2030 (Figure 81). Of that total, CTL is projected to account for 1.6 million barrels per day and oil shale 405,000 barrels per day. Because natural gas prices are relatively high throughout the projections, GTL production reaches only about 100,000 barrels per day in 2030 in the high price case.

The guys cooking up this report are very giddy about the potential for energy, they think it will just pour out of any system that is being exploited and in addition, all present systems will decline very slowly or not at all! When writing reports projecting into the future, a wise person looks at all the bad things that can happen and looks at WORST CASE scenarios. Then, if things are better, one enters into a golden zone where wealth and happiness is the reward. But betting on magical or improbable events means being hammered by reality when things don't pan out. Explaining this to people is nearly impossible.

I make lots of predictions here. I always take the dark view of events only because we must see the worst in order to judge risks. This is why good banks assume people are going to go bankrupt and forces them to prove they are better risks!

U.S. consumption of liquid fuels—including fuels from petroleum-based sources and, increasingly, those derived from such nonpetroleum primary fuels as coal, biomass, and natural gas—is projected to total 26.9 million barrels per day in 2030, an increase of 6.2 million barrels per day over the 2005 total. Most of the increase is in the transportation sector, which is projected to account for 73 percent of total liquid fuels consumption in 2030, up from 67 percent in 2005 (Figure 82).

Liquid fuels use for transportation increases by 5.8 million barrels per day from 2005 to 2030 in the AEO2007 reference case, by 7.8 million barrels per day in the high economic growth case, and by 3.8 million barrels per day in the high price case. Gasoline, ULSD, and jet fuel are the main transportation fuels. The reference case includes the effects of technology improvements that are expected to increase the efficiency of motor vehicles and aircraft, but the projected growth in demand for each mode outpaces those improvements as the demand for transportation services grows in proportion to increases in population and GDP.

Consumption of liquid fuels from nonpetroleum sources increases substantially over the projection period. Ethanol, which made up 3 percent of the motor gasoline pool in 2005, increases to approximately 8 percent of the total motor gasoline pool in 2030. Total production of liquid fuels from CTL plants, which are expected to commence operation in 2011, increases in the reference case to 440,000 barrels per day—equivalent to 7 percent of the total pool of distillate fuel—in 2030.

So far, not only have we not made any progress in clipping consumption, things are worse than 30 years ago. Fuel efficiency has not risen at all. In the 1960's, very few families had multiple vehicles. Today, this is the norm. Consumption has tremendously outstripped native production and now relies mostly on foriegn imports. This cannot be stressed enough: this is a disaster. It will destroy the USA. There isn't the slightest alarm in this report. Nor is there any call for changing direction or forcing our car-crazy culture to get out of this dangerous cul-de-sac.

In 2005, net imports of liquid fuels, primarily petroleum, accounted for 60 percent of domestic consumption. The United States is expected to continue its dependence on liquid fuel imports in the AEO2007 reference case. The import share of domestic consumption declines slightly to 55 percent in 2015 before climbing to 61 percent in 2030 (Figure 83). Dependence on imports is tied to total consumption. In the high price case, net imports as a share of domestic consumption of liquid fuels fall to 49 percent in 2030. In the low price case, dependence on petroleum imports increases to 67 percent in 2030 as U.S. demand for lower priced fuels increases more rapidly than domestic production.

Talk about insanity. Recently, an economics writer asked me where I got the 60% importing figures. Well, here they are! From the government itself! And this is from 2 years ago. I assure everyone, it is probably worse today. For this number has been growing as our production can't keep up with wild consumption. The opening article details how Americans are refusing to take this crisis even slightly seriously. They think there will be money for them to overspend forever. On TV tonight, I saw all sorts of ads for gas guzzling vehicles offering great prices to buy or lease them. Back in 1989, I spent $235 leasing a work vehicle and today the price is...$235 for a Ford truck! Gads. As if the dollar of 1989 were still able to buy things today. A sheet of plywood in 1989 was about $3 a sheet for 1/2 single-sided AB! Today, it is four times this! If trucks were the same rise, the lease price would have to be nearly $1,000 and this is the monthly fees for those Alt A loans that pay only interest on $350,000! This economic lunacy is due to all the forces focused like laser beams on the US: everyone wants to burden us with debt and keep us gas guzzling until we die.

This stupid, pie-in-the-blue-sky report concludes with total, complete insanity and this was written just six months ago!

The retail prices of petroleum products largely follow changes in crude oil prices. In the reference case, the world oil price path reaches a low of about $50 per barrel in 2014, then increases slowly to about $59 in 2030 (2005 dollars). The reference case projections for average U.S. average motor gasoline prices follow the same trend, rising from $1.95 per gallon in 2014 to $2.15 in 2030.

In the high price case, with the price of imported crude oil projected to rise to more than $100 per barrel in 2030, the average price of U.S. motor gasoline follows the higher price path of world oil prices, increasing from $2.61 per gallon in 2014 to a high of $3.20 per gallon in 2030. In the low price case, gasoline prices decline to a low of $1.64 per gallon in 2017, increase slowly through the early 2020s, and level off at about $1.76 per gallon through 2030 (Figure 84).

Because changes from the reference case assumptions for economic growth rates have less pronounced effects on projected motor gasoline prices than do changes in oil price assumptions, the projected average prices for U.S. motor gasoline in the high and low economic growth cases are close to those in the reference case. In the high growth case, the average gasoline price falls to a low of $2.00 per gallon in 2016, then rises to $2.21 per gallon in 2030. In the low growth case, the average price reaches a low of $1.92 per gallon in 2014, then rises to $2.08 per gallon in 2030.

Just for this alone, the wizards who pretend they can see the future should be thrown into the nearest volcano or perhaps gored by a herd of enraged bull elephants or shot to the moon. The media should have covered this story and Congress should be yellling about it. This is madness.

But then, the media and the ruling elites forced Jimmy Carter to recant his accusation that Bush has got to be the most criminal and insane leader we ever had, period. I will note that old Jimmy won't call for Bush's arrest. But like I keep saying, we should arrest him. We can't have a lunatic and his gang of idiots running the ship of state.

From Xinhua:

China's top economic planning agency has ordered local authorities to remove preferential policies for energy guzzlers amid the nation's efforts to save energy and cut pollution.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) also warned local governments not to violate laws, regulations and policies by introducing preferential policies such as tax cuts to attract new high energy-consuming projects in the future.

The NDRC said local governments should set stricter market access standards to help eliminate outdated production facilities and tighten land use and credit supply for new projects.

To slow down the rapid growth of high energy-consuming projects is crucial to meeting China's energy saving and pollution reduction targets, the NDRC said in a statement on its Website.

China, unlike the US, is taking the Hubbert Oil Peak very seriously. And they are very displeased that the US is not appreciative that they are soaking up our inflation and are also taking on huge energy costs which goes into manufacturing stuff for our use. Despite their huge trade surplus with the US, they are not rolling in dough like Germany and Japan both of whom have double China's trade surplus! China is now going to hand off this chore to others as they focus on more value-added exports. This will probably re-configure world trade significantly. Namely, they will run a trade surplus one third smaller than today's but it will be mostly cars, computers and solar panels. Yes, you heard me right!

My dad, when he went back to China during the late 1970's, sold them on solar energy! He wrote the first book about this subject, for example. Well, Jimmy Carter appointed him head of the alternative energy commission that turned out reports like the one I just tore apart.

The Chinese intend to be THE major producers of solar energy systems. This is in their long, long range plans! And they are now beginning to seriously pursue this path. Unlike the US. Alas. Hell. Talk about stupid.

Culture of Life News Main Page

Raw Data About Energy and Debts From The CIA

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Everything is tied together. Diplomacy, war, economic and money matters as well as the giant underpinning of all this, the ultimate level of hard facts of life: energy systems. Understanding how all these things interact and how dangerous the present world power/economics system really is means to go to raw data and start reading these tea leaves. It is painfully obvious that the US/UK axis is in deep trouble because both are deep in debt and both have passed their Hubbert Oil Peaks. This means war.

From Xinhua:

China and Japan will hold the eighth round of talks on the East China Sea issues in Beijing on Friday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a regular press conference on Thursday.

"The state leaders of the two countries have achieved important consensus on the East China Sea issue, and China is willing to make joint efforts with Japan to promote the process of consultation based on the consensus so as to seek a joint exploration plan accepted by both countries," she said.

Just last year, Japan was banging the war drums and defying China over these oil/gas fields. They even 'conquered' a small artificial island they tried to build. This nearly led to a shoot-out. But what a peculiar surprize but baby dragon of North Korea caused a terrible ruckus shooting a rocket over Japan and then announcing 'Me go BOOM!' which forced Japan to run to China to stop baby dragon. HAHAHA. What can I say? Anyone who thinks these events are random will be doomed to wander inside the labyrinth of internationa poliltics, lost forever.

Note that North Korea isn't in the news anymore. Indeed, if they are, it is just to chronicle all the minor triumphs of that often mischievous little reptile. Today, Japan has been forced into negotiations with China holding the upper hand due to the complete collapse of 'face' for America. On every level, we are losing ground. We even have been reduced to sailing back and forth in front of Iran, yelling hopelessly even as we openly plot to overthrow the government there and talk wildly of overthrowing the elected government of Iraq that we fostered with such fanfare just two years ago.

Everyone can see the American military can't project power anymore and if the Saudis and Japanese think we can follow their secret orders when confronting powers that are our equal, well, they are nuts. And the rise of Russia and China, the first, due to energy price hikes and the later due to a massive hard-working labor force, means they have the power and we don't. This is because Japan, Europe, Britain and the US are sliding into either deep debts or are past their own Hubbert Oil Peaks.

From the Economist:

Inspectors from Russia’s federal environmental agency have today begun a final check on the Kovykta gasfield, to measure compliance against the licence held by Rusia Petroleum, in which TNK-BP has a 62.4% stake. A previous check, in January, found Rusia Petroleum in violation of its licence terms and gave the company three months to correct them. According to Oleg Mitvol, the deputy head of the natural resource ministry’s environmental agency and the scourge of the Shell-led consortium at Sakhalin-2, the licence could be withdrawn before June. In reality this appears unlikely, as Rusia Petroleum has gone to court to appeal against the findings of the January decision. Until the court has ruled—and the case is not scheduled to be heard until May 28th—the licence cannot be revoked.

Under Yeltsin, the West came into Russia and treated the people like they were Iraqis and began to systematically loot the nation. Putin has brought this to a screetching halt. And now he is working to undo the contracts and bring Russia back into power and this is succeeding which is why all of Europe is barking like mad at Putin and working with the warmongers in the US to ring Russia with nuclear war missiles.

This is identical to Japan last year. Imagining that Russia would be cowed by American military might! So they will not negotiate but try to force Russia to obey Germany and France's desires. I have a serious love of history and what two countries have invaded Russia on little or no excuse in the past? Oh! Time to play Tchaikovsky's '1812 Overture'! The European Union imagines it is very rich due to the Japanese screwing up all the world's currencies as well as stock markets with their .5% interest carry trade loans and their need to keep dollars out of Japan so someone who speaks Japanese is funnelling zillions of dollars into European banks!

But if we look at the raw economic and energy data, it is chrystal clear, Europe will surrender to Russia in the end just like Japan is coming to heel very slowly vis a vis China.

From IHT:

Britain's North Sea oil reserves are dwindling fast, its nuclear plants are aging and it is setting itself ambitious carbon-cutting targets that no one is quite sure how to meet. Energy may be the issue that Gordon Brown can not ignore when he succeeds Tony Blair as prime minister next month, as he seems bound to do in the absence of any challenger.

As Blair's chancellor of the exchequer for a decade, Brown has had a hand in shaping most of the government's most important policies. But despite his influence, his views on many issues beyond the fiscal ones are a mystery to Britons.

Energy is one of the most crucial areas in which he has kept his opinions to himself. Those who work in the industry and those who watch it have little sense of his positions on some of the biggest questions they face.

Britain's energy policies: TOP SECRET! Can't let anyone know! Hahaha. The entire financial house of cards that is this dying empire that is still invading countries in the hope of looting them: it is in collapse due to the Hubbert Oil Peak! And this should be a loud topic of open discussion but of course, it is not! Of course, the US has been in economic decline since 1970 due to our own Hubbert Peakhood. Congress didn't begin to even MENTION this until only two years ago! Amazing, part of our 'ostrich head in the ground' approach to energy and financial matters.

Well, the CIA and the IMF knows what is going on and any fool reading the raw data can clearly see whose ship is sinking and also detect the perfidy of Japan and how it keeps control of us by keeping the value of the yen 40% below real value!

Click on all images to enlarge:

CIA gas export rankings:

Let's look at Putin's favorite numbers: gas exports. Russia rules the roost. And to actually rule this flock of chickens, he has to first get majority stake in not just the gas fields but the gas pipelines. Germany's past Chancellor, Schroeder, is working with Putin on just this very thing but the present one, Markel, is banking on US military power and is defying Russia and leading the barking. Woof-woof! Sell us gas on our own terms!

But look at the data! Russia sells over one third of the world's gas! One third! Guten nacht, Frau Markel. Canada is #2, selling less than 1/2 what Russia is selling. And Europe doesn't get this gas, the US gets it!

#3 is Norway. They sell to the EU too but they can't even get close to producing enough gas. The United States still produces gas although we took a big hit from the 2005 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. But the question isn't production but consumption. Who uses how much matters a lot.

CIA rankings natural gas imports:

World exports are 813,500,000,000 cubic meters. Imports are 819,300,000,000 cubic meters. I suspect this is double counting the 'imports' that are really Russian gas passing through various countries in the EU before going to Germany, Belgium and France.

The greedy-for-Russian-gas EU uses NEARLY HALF of world gas imports! The US uses half as much as that. But it stands, the #1 and #2 consumers of gas imports is the NATO alliance from WWII. Japan uses less gas imports than Germany. Japan is the world's #1 trade surplus nation and Germany is the #2. Add their gas purchases and it is 171,340,000,000 which is much bigger than the US amount of just 120,600,000,000 cubic meters.

Japan and Germany are playing opposites here: the yen is super weak against the euro and weak against the dollar while the euro is the reverse. Why isn't all this a topic of angry conversation? Obviously, it is because Europe is not a power we fear but Russia is. So we side with them even though Russia is, like us, a big producer of energy. Russia's military and energy power is a danger to us because the #1 consumer of energy in the world is the US itself.

Time to look at oil:

CIA oil export rankings:

Well, well. Russia is the #2 oil exporter right on the heels of Saudi Arabia! This is a one-two punch for Russia and explains why Russia's finances look much better than the USA's! The higher the price of energy, the richer Russia becomes. This means also more power for Russia. So will the EU barking and US spitting on Russia save us from these harsh realities?

Of course not. Why the imperialists of Europe and the US think this way is due to hubris. Extreme hubris.

Again, Norway comes to Europe's rescue. They are again, one of the top 5 producers of energy in the world. They also have a socialist system which is admired by the Russians. Even Saudi Arabia has a sort of socialist system: much of the native population is on welfare. Iraq was like Russia and Norway until the US invaded and turned it into a total mess. Stealing oil is hard to do.

Now to the mess we are in: Iran is #5. It is 1/3 Saudi Arabia's oil sales. But it is nearly equal to Venezuela, another country our nation is trying to muscle and control. Both these oil nations are working in tandem and they intend to make life difficult for us and both talk to Russia who is playing a double game here because they can.

Mexico's debts to IMF:

Mexico is the #8 seller of oil. Nearly all of which flows to the US who has Mexico in an armlock which our rulers work hard to enforce even if it means murdering anyone opposition to the ruling elites of Mexico. Notice how Mexico went into IMF loan programs to rescue the economy (and destroy the peasants) during the 1990's? This was the period where oil went super-cheap. Mexico would have benefitted by joining OPEC but they couldn't. And Russia's oil spigot was turned on and Europe and Japan were rolling in oil. Only Japan's economy was on the rocks due to the expensive yen. Back to Mexico's woes, as in Venezuela, the government has been working for the US but to buy labor peace, all oil workers were given good pensions and pay. But the rulers are annoyed as they were in Venezuela, with this deal and itch to destroy the oil unions. This could lead to a take-over like we saw in Russia and Venezuela. Iran still has some sort of free elections only these are now disappearing too under pressure.

This is due to American attempts at taking over. The US has undone all liberalism in Iran by trying to sneak past the governments there all sorts of CIA-dark ops stuff. Just this week in the news was the story of the CIA given clearance to attack Iran from within using traitors there who are willing to do undercover crimes on behalf of the American Empire. Naturally, honest and good people supporting openess and liberalism are being arrested and attacked. But unfortunately, this is forced upon any nation pumping oil that isn't working for the Empire.

CIA rankings oil imports:

The gas guzzling US is by far, #1. We produce a lot of oil but we consume much, much more. And this is part of the harsh reality of our trade deficits: as the price of oil rises, so does it! The US imports almost three times the oil Japan, the #2 importer, consumes. China is #3. And Germany is #7. Isn't it odd that Germany and Japan have the largest trade surpluses in the world yet they use, together, 7,584,000 barrels of oil which is still only slightly more than half of what we consume!

Americans forget we are in competition with Germany and Japan. Allies or not, they are our competitiors, this is what 'capitalism' is all about! So the fact that both of these nations have the world's #1 and #2 trade SURPLUSES should worry us a lot. China consumes much more than either nation and so despite their huge trade surplus with us, they don't come close to Germany or Japan in this matter at all! And focusing on their currency issues is foolish if we are being whipsawed by the yen and the euro.

China is the #3 consumer of imported oil but don't run up the trade surpluses of either Germany or Japan. The Germans are frugal with oil but not Japan. Not at all. Japan uses nearly twice the oil of China! So how come their trade stats shine?

Cars! They sell high-profit cars to the gas guzzlers in America! And this is what I focus on and what our trade officials ignore. Yet it is the key to many matters here. We have to change our oil guzzling ways and we have to force our auto industries to produce gas misers and anyone driving on foreign oil should pay a very high tax. This will stop the draining of our treaury. And we are in severe financial straits which is why China laughed in our faces this week!

Time to talk about the miserable state of America's FOREX reserves and how this makes it impossible for us to control our currency anymore. For a shock, look at Mexico's FOREX reserves today: they are at an astonishing $85,010,000,000! All due to the price of oil rising fabulously.

And our reserves stink. We are #15. China is #1 and Japan, #2. Germany's reserves are below our own but then, their bank is all of Europe and that is #3. Then right behind is Russia!

Russia's bulging international bank accounts thanks to Putin:

Russia's FOREX reserves are over $333 billion which is over 5 times bigger than the US FOREX reserves. Since the US is deep in debt to the world, this is a very nasty development. But the real problem is China is their reserves are 19 times greater than ours. All our yapping about them changing their money rules is silly in light of this stark fact. And I would say, it is all bluster just like the EU barking at Russia. The collective reserves of the EU are greater than Russia but they are held by fracticious nations that often attack each other and are honestly, rivals in the bitter end.

CIA list of government debts as percentage of GNP:

US is ranked at #30 at 64 billion in reserves! We are number one on rankings that are very bad for our balancing the books and yet we stay happily afloat with the world's biggest PPP funds. But deluding ourselves is dangerous. If we force Mexico to defend their peso by holding FOREX funds as big as our own then what does that say about us? Canada defends the loonie the same way. Namely, to keep it from rising fast against the dollars that buy their oil and gas, they keep it as low as they can. They don't want a dead dollar losing buying power faster than they can turn around their profits from their energy sales!

CIA rankings of reserves:

I visit both the IMF reserve numbers every week as well as this page. It is very sad that our own CIA which was set up to advise Presidents on foreign policies and actions knows all this dire data and is complicit with running the US into the ground. I call this treason.

The CIA is working with Bush and the Pentagon to attack or undermine all oil producing nations that are not in our grip. Yet far from making things better, this is making them much, much worse. Namely, the cost of all this is bankrupting our nation. It is why the US is #1 for national debts! Incredible. But then, the Democratic party just folded and gave Bush his war money bill, padded with tons of fat pork for all the traitors in the Democratic party who can see these numbers I posted to day just as clearly as I can see them!

The fact is, spending recklessly and trying to steal oil seems to be the only palatable political solution to our dying dollar and out of control consumerism.

CIA rankings of external debt:

Is our poor rankings with reserves a problem? Indeed. Is a sinking Titanic going to dump us into the frigid Atlantic? This is the other area where the US is #1.

Note that Japan could pay off 75% of its external debt if it used its huge hoard of FOREX reserve funds. But that money exists in such a massive amount in order to keep the yen super-weak by at least 40%! Ditto China. China could pay off 100% of its external debt if it tapped just 20% of its FOREX reserves. But try making the Dragon do that! Har. There is no tool, not even a magic sword can slay this Fafner and get the magic gold and the magic helmet that allows one to disguise themselves!

The US is the champions here: we not only owe the most compared to anyone else, our debts are slightly less than one quarter all public debts in the world. This is frightful but what is most mysterious is the #2 nation that owes everybody and the Chinese: the UK. They owe only slightly less than the US! And here lies the dark, ugly heart of all diplomacy and wars: the world's last global empire, the UK, is up to their eyeballs in debts and the present empire is, too. And this is a sign these empires are on their last legs. The US and UK are the chief instigators and invaders running about the planet, spending fortunes on military adventures and a bizarre attempt to place weapons systems and troops in as many countries as possible in a misguided and totally insane quest to rule the planet so we can...run up as much debts as we want and never have to worry about repaying them.

The other weak spot is the European Union: they owe more than the US if you add up all their collective numbers. When we see Japan and China together owing less than the Netherlands, one is looking right into the middle of a terrible imbalance, a frightful weakness. Namely, the belligerent former empires of Europe and the US are collectively, OVER ONE HALF of the world's outstanding debts!

And the only countries with no debts at all:

You can't move to the tiny kingdom of Liechtenstein, not even in a marriage, and take part of their total care programs for all citizens. They turned this once-poor nation into a secretive banking vault that does money laundering. And Brunei is equally locked down but its wealth is from gambling and oil.

CIA rankings of GDP (Purchasing Power Parity---PPP):

Purchasing power is lined up with national debt levels. Namely, the nation with the most debt, the US, is also #1 for PPP. The EU is #2. Virtually the same. China is #3 with Japan at less than half that. And Japan has a far smaller population than the EU, China or USA and it would be interesting to contrast per capita here. Germany's population is somewhat smaller than Japan and it has slightly more than half the PPP than Japan. I see the euro/yen thing lurking within these numbers.

The US purchasing power is based firmly on not paying today for yesterday's purchases. And this crazy system which our empire enforces and wants is destroying our economic base from within. And the stupid negotiations with the Chinese where they basically ordered us to do whatever they wanted and granted the silly, weak American negotiators various favors which were previously withheld only so they could unveil them this week...how childish we are!

This reminds me of all the people who were conned into getting interest-only home loans. Soon, they will all lose either their homes or their shirts or both. And like them, the US will whine that we didn't read the fine print and our bankers didn't explain the horrible details clearly.

Well, this is no excuse: I am telling everyone the details! And they are right here in these numbers published by our own spooks in the CIA! Good grief.

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