Energy News: $100 A Barrel Oil=$3 Trillion A Year Trade Deficit

11/9/7

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The high price of oil is very much connected to US aggressions and invasions as well as our blunderbuss take on nuclear proliferation. This is wrecking our trade with the world putting us deep in red ink. The high price of oil always triggers recessions. The price of oil has been rising relentlessly ever since the loud mouths in the GOP took over the USA. But the recession didn't start right away. I would suggest, this was due to the Fed lying about inflation and then dropping interest rates way below the true rate of inflation coupled with wild inflationary war spending that boosted incomes while running up record red ink.

From Farsi News, Iran:

China in Talks to Buy Gas from Iran LNG

TEHRAN (Fars News Agency)- A Chinese company and two other buyers are in talks to purchase liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Iran LNG Co, said a senior official from the Iranian firm.

This little tid bit didn't make the US news. Our top Jewish neocons have been hard at work, trying to isolate Iran and prepare it for invasion. The Sunni neighbors of Iran who have large Shi'ite populations would dearly love to see the Shi'a leadership decapitated and humiliated. The rich Saudis, for example, know that high world oil prices are making them more powerful and richer and they also can see that this is bankrupting the USA. As the US weakens, they can shift their alliance to China if they need to suppress revolutions and uprisings.

Iran knows that the stupid economic game the US neocons are insisting on playing is killing the US golden goose. This is a race against time. Will the US collapse before Iran? There is a very real possiblity that thanks to high oil prices and the nasty, ugly red ink mess in the US will bring our empire down with a resounding crash long before the government of Iran collapses. On top of all this, every hour the US presses against Iran, not only does the price of oil rise, Russia becomes increasingly rich and powerful. The US hates this idea but can't help itself. The imperative scheme here is to destroy all potential dangers to Israel and if this means destroying the entire US economy and making Russia very powerful, the neocons cooking up this ridiculous war don't care.

Right now, the average American has been quite docile. Years ago when oil was half the present price, there was loud noise about boycotting gas stations and demands that the price be brought down again. But that has faded to silence. I sense that people have no idea what to do next. So everyone is sitting here, watching passively as the US gets increasingly hysterical about Iran and pushes ever harder to isolate Iran and prevent Iran from selling energy. This is all so very sad but then, this is why people like Mr. Zell, a rank Zionist, is willing to go deep into debt....[sort of]...buying money-losing news media outets. If now one hears anything in the news about stopping this, they won't stop this. And certainly AIPAC Congress won't stop this madness.

From the BBC:

The US military in Iraq has released nine of the 20 Iranian citizens it has detained there, including two held on suspicion of helping Shia militants.
*snip*
Their detention has been the subject of intense protests by the Iranian government and lobbying by Iraqi authorities.

The release followed a careful review of individual records to determine if they posed a security threat to Iraq, and if their detention was of continued intelligence value

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) also objected, saying the office and its personnel were known to them.

Finally, the Iranians we held [and probably tortured and sexually ravished] are coming home. Filled with indignant stories of US perfidy. We just saw the installation of a Jewish judge in the US who endorses torture so I suppose the Iranians will have a field day over all this. The US imagines our grotesque war on terror won't hammer us at home. Well, sorry to say this, but it is and the hammer will smash all our fingers and toes before winter is done.

Today I got a funny email.

I won't even bother trying to get our corrupt and unresponsive gangsters to do the right thing. They seem bent of suicide. We don't need 'fuel standards.' We need higher taxes on gasoline. Then, if people are very stupid, we can have them close the budget gap for our nation. Or they can drive gas misers. I have owned quite a few gas misers over the years. The best was my itty bitty Geo Metro. I got nearly 60 mpg and tooled all over the USA in this, terrified some stupid SUV would run me over. Well, people can do what I did. This will also save our nation for a great portion of our trade deficit is energy-related. We MUST reduce this, pronto. Big time. Or else.

From Prison Planet:

Jane Merriman and Peg Mackey
Reuters
Thursday November 8, 2007

Oil will breach the $100 barrier, but this will not kill off global economic growth, the head of Germany's Deutsche Bank said at the Reuters Finance Summit.

"I'd bet a lot the $100 will be pushed through," said Josef Ackermann, chairman of Deutsche Bank.

But oil at $100 a barrel would not make much difference to cost pressures on the world economy, although it is psychologically significant, he said.

"From a cost perspective I don't think that ($100 oil) will be a huge difference. It signals that the economy is robust, otherwise we'd see different price levels," he said.

The economy is not 'robust'. It is going bust. Today, the price of oil is slightly below that new benchmark. But this doesn't mean it will fall and fall. Remember: the US is pushing very hard to fight the Iranian Kitty who has some very sharp claws and these claws are very connected to the rising price of world energy.

From the Guardian:

Multinational companies are coming under increasing pressure from the US to stop doing business with Iran because of its nuclear programme. European operators are facing threats from Washington that they could jeopardise their US interests by continuing to deal with Tehran, with increasing evidence that European governments, mainly France, Germany and Britain, are supporting the US campaign.

It emerged last night that Siemens, one of the world's largest engineering groups and based in Germany, has pulled out of all new business dealings with Iran after pressure from the US and German governments. This follows the decision by Germany's three biggest banks, Deutsche, Commerzbank, and Dresdner, to quit Iran after a warning from US vice-president Dick Cheney that if firms remain in Tehran, they are going to have problems doing business in the US.

I find it rather ironic that banks are afraid of our violent, vindictive government so they will forego doing business that might save them from the US bankrupting them all. Deutsche Bank has been very badly burned by the US subprime garbage. I suppose the Germans will keep eating their arms and legs off in the hopes of making the US happy. I suppose Europe will gracefully fall into Russia's eager embrace rather than be nice to Iran Kitty. After all, having a huge, powerful, rather irritable Russian Bear with a zillion nuclear bombs is far better than a small Shi'a Kitty Cat with no nuclear bombs. Ach. Ich glaube es ist ganz gut, ja? [Trans: Ack. I believe this is just Jim Dandy.]

Why are the Germans so insane? I look at the trade figures and it is obvious: they sell us lots of goodies like BMW, VW, Mercedes Benzes and other stuff They run a big trade surplus with us like all the guys we beat up in WWII. So they will spurn Iran and be stuck out on a limb with the Bear who remembers WWII much better than the US.

From the Guardian:

In a cavernous hall on the edge of Manhattan's financial district, every shout, thrust or scribbled note affects the cost of petrol at the pump for millions of motorists around the world. In six months, benchmark prices have surged by 45% - an upward march that has left veteran traders shaking their heads.

Ray Carbone, president of Paramount Options, has been trading on the floor of Nymex for 20 years. He has rarely seen anything like it: "The markets over the last few days have been probably as jumpy and jittery as I've ever seen them - and I've been here through two Gulf wars, a Russian coup and Hurricane Katrina." The stakes, says the 48-year-old New Yorker, have never been higher: "Because of the high price, there is such nervousness about what could happen - a complete wash-out or continuing strength?"

In New York, they are feeling a lot of hysteria now. This is because even dim memories of what happens whenever the US starts an oil war or boycotts any oil pumping nations is scaring everyone. Namely, we always fall into this ugly, nasty pit. During the boycott of Iraqi oil, we finessed this by letting Saddam sell oil under the 'oil for food' fiction. Meanwhile, Yeltsin allowed Russia to be looted and world oil prices collapsed. Today, things are quite different. Every time we tweak the Iran Kitty tail, we get raked by its claws. Thus, the hysteria. Since the US is making things worse and worse, I would suggest going bullish on oil. The one craveat here is, if the US economy collapses, the price of oil will drop. This will either start WWIII or the US will be nice like the Soviets and quietly contract from global empire to just being another country out begging the IMF for spare change.

From Agence France Press:

"If Egypt and Saudi Arabia begin nuclear programmes, this can bring an apocalyptic scenario upon us," Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman told the English-language Jerusalem Post newspaper.

"Their intentions should be taken seriously and the declarations being made now are to prepare the world for when they decide to actually do it," said the minister, responsible for coordinating Israeli efforts against a nuclear Iran.

On October 29, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak announced a programme to build several nuclear power stations -- the country having abandoned an atomic energy programme in 1986 after the Chernobyl disaster.

Many nations have nuclear power. But no Muslim is allowed this, it seems. Israel is very anxious to launch an all-out attack on all Muslim nations including Pakistan. They can't do this but they can get AIPAC Congress and the dementos in the White House to do this for them. This is a great way to start WWIII. Bush actually talked about this and here is Lieberman talking about launching the Apocalypse and I certainly do believe that WWIII will be the Apocalypse and this madness must stop but it will not. First of all, the oil pumping nations of the earth have the financial capacity to build nuclear power plants. So they will. They also have the legal right to do this. So they will. And belligerent nations threatening war and violating air space and bombing neighbors on scant or no provocation shouldn't be allowed to talk about the Apocalypse. Will the US media attack this Zionist? Will they even mention him at all? Mr. Zell needs to buy the media. Murdoch has to buy the media. All of these sorts of aliens who came here as immigrants are doing this because....they want WWIII, I guess.

The above article also mentions the queer fact that Israel gets to sit in judgement on nuclear issues. One of the most amazing and obviously stupid things on earth is, Israel is on the UN nuclear proliferation committee but refuses to sign anti-proliferation treaties. They, alone, refuse any inspections to see if they have nuclear bombs even after several top Israelis have admitted to having nuclear bombs. They also illegally bomb other nation's nuclear power plants at will and suffer no consequences for this. This violent style of anti-nuclear proliferation is very much a trigger for WWIII. Why this is allowed is...it is insanity.

From the BBC:

The Brazilian government says huge new oil reserves discovered off its coast could turn the country into one of the biggest oil producers in the world.

Petrobras, Brazil's national oil company, says it believes the offshore Tupi field has between 5bn and 8bn barrels of recoverable light oil.

Brazil's coastline, like West Africa's, is really landmass that slowly collapsed over the eons as Africa and South America split apart. For a long time, this was a rift zone and like all such rift zones, full of life. Then it became a shallow sea and many marine animals lived there and the water would dry up and form sal flats over the carcasses of tiny, dead marine creatures and then water would flood back in as the oceans rose or fell due to ice cover or glacial melts. So there is oil just offshore.

These oil fields are 'deep water' which is another sign we are in the very beginning of the Hubbert Oil Peak. Namely, the oil is harder and harder to reach. When Greenland is de-iced, we will find a great deal of oil there and already, nations are beginning to stake this out. This will probably produce potential wars or other unpleasant events, of course. And if Brazil has lots of oil, this doesn't mean they will sell it to us for debased dollars that are collapsing. They will sell to the highest bidders and that means the Chinese or the Europeans who are scared of the Russian Bear.

From the EIA report for the Department of Energy;Here are two energy reports from the US government.

The Canadian dollar, the loonie, has shot way past dollar parity and is now joining the euro in a hike to the heavens. Note here that our main supplier of energy is Canada. By far. Mexico used to be #2 but is now surpassed by Saudi Arabia. And the Saudis own us in various ways as we pour money into their pockets. We import around 9,000,000 [9 million] barrels A DAY. At $100 a barrel this is...nearly a 9 billion dollars a day! So if the price of oil reaches $100 a barrel and stays there for a year, this means we will be importing over $365 billion in oil? I look at my calculator and wonder if I made a mistake.

The US exports lots of stuff. Our happy-talk business writers working in the media owned by a bunch of guys pushing for wars in the Middle East don't talk about this. In all the news stories I read daily, I see not a single line devoted to figuring out the cost of $100 a barrel oil over the next year. Or if there is such a beast, it is pure silliness like the Reuters story up at the top where a pair of ditzy writers chat about how $100 a barrel oil is no big deal. Our robust economy can handle this. But if it costs $365 billion, this is not 'doable' at all. It is totally impossible. And what will give is our economy: we will buy less oil because we simply can't afford it. And if we Bernanke the money and make lots of pretty dollars, this will not make oil cheaper, it will make inflation higher.

I will say it here outright: we CANNOT do this. We CANNOT have a multi-trillion dollar trade deficit. This is totally impossible. This is why I am furious about that email asking me to pester the perfidous, petulant, prissy little AIPAC monsters in our government to do something sane. It is too late. Either they figure this out themselves, they can read my silly news service or we can all fall off a cliff and die. If they can't see this already, my calling them won't fix this.

From PIMCO Global Perspectives, Richard H. Clarida | March 2007

Petrodollars, the Savings Bust, and the U.S. Current Account Deficit

In the last several years, the story of the U.S. current account deficit has been about the oil import bill. As Chart 1 makes clear, the biggest rise in global current account surpluses in recent years has been in oil exporting countries.
*snip*
With the substantial decline in oil prices from their summer 2006 peak, and below trend growth in the U.S. economy in store for 2007, the U.S. current account deficit will likely begin to decline this year. There will also be fewer petrodollars to recycle at $60 oil than at $75 oil. Thus U.S. demand for capital inflows will shrink, but the supply of petrodollar outflows to the global financial system will also shrink. In this state of affairs, what are the implications for interest rates and credit spreads?

This analysis was written only half a year ago! And oil prices have risen 45% since then! This is madness. The writer here assumed the price of oil would drop because it was high. But I didn't. Back then, I predicted it would rise and this was due 100% to the fact that the US was acting insane and pushing for more and more war with Iran kitty. At no point has the US relented. Since then, things have gotten much worse, much grimmer. The US lost some nuclear bombs and then sort of refound them, Israel has attacked Syria illegally and the dictator of Pakistan is on the ropes and so we have more war, not less. More danger, not less. And oil responds to danger like a cat on a hot tin roof.

It is certainly true that energy imports are killing us. We can't use energy as if there is no tomorrow. The other industrialized nations use far less oil per capita than the US and they do this by putting taxes on gasoline, for example. The US is in competition with the world and since oil imports are killing us, we must stop doing this before our nation goes bankrupt trying to buy $365 billion in oil each year! We can't do this anymore! This is INSANITY.

But then, all our international policies seem based on insane assumptions these days.

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Comments

Elaine,
Check yer abacus one more time. 9 billion times 100 is 900 billion.

Good article nonetheless.

Posted by: Salvatorem | November 10, 2007 at 05:16 AM

oops, meant to say millions, not billions

Posted by: Salvatorem | November 10, 2007 at 05:18 AM

It is nine billion dollars a day in oil costs, not 900 billion. Gads, that would really kill us. I know that doing a zillion zeros is harder and harder as the numbers climb off the charts. Hard for us to understand. Sort of like living in Italy in the past when they inflated the currency cheerfully.

Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 10, 2007 at 07:44 AM

As it is, the US must bring in over $2.5 billion A DAY to stay afloat. The trade deficit for oil isn't 100% because we export a lot of stuff so about 50% of the oil deficit is covered by trade. But the higher the price, the less this is covered and the worse things get. This is unsustainable.

And is HIDDEN. VERY few Americans know how much oil we import and how much this costs! Every time I crunch the numbers, I panic. Even I have underestimated the exact amounts. This secrecy is due to the media refusing to talk about this and our rulers playing stupid. Like, Congress and the President and AIPAC.

Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 10, 2007 at 07:47 AM

Elaine,
I reviewed the numbers again and I pretty sure you made a mistake in the math. 9 million barrels a day at $100 a barrel is $900 million, not $9 billion. Over a year, that equates to about $328 billion NOT $3 trillion. You're off by a factor of 10 here.

Posted by: Salvatorem | November 10, 2007 at 10:36 AM

Help me out here, please, as the charts make no sense to me in the first place, and you're all confusing what little brain cells I have left.

Is Crude Oil the $100/barrel, and, if so, what is the price per barrel of Petroleum? Are the petroleum figures in the calculations?

If both the crude oil and the petroleum charts are measured by "thousand barrels per day," we imported 4,460,000 brls/Aug 07 from Canada of crude and petroleum.

And, why are the YTD 07 figures less than the Aug 07 and July 07 figures?

On my computer calculator and with poor eye sight, for Aug 07, going by the charts above, US imported approx 9,397,000 barrels of crude oil, and approx 11,527,000 barrels of petroleum for a total of approx 20,924,000 barrels. Adding 2 zeros for $100/brl, I get $2,092,400,000 for Aug 07 at $100/brl for crude and petroleum. Is this, more or less, correct? Are you using only the crude oil imports? 9,397,000 brls of crude per month (not per day) gives me, adding 2 zeros, $939,700,000 spent in Aug for crude oil, times 12 gives me $11,276,400,000 annually for crude oil. OK, I'm losing even more brain cells, which is not a good thing.

Please tell me where I've gone wrong, and I'm sure I have, or if you have time, tell me exactly what calculations are being used.

Thank you, but use simple wording and explanations, please.

Posted by: Ignorant Old Lady | November 10, 2007 at 12:25 PM

Well the crude oil, comes to a bit more than 300 billion USD a year,at these rates. I think the total petroleum numbers include crude oil, lets say that in all it would be about 400-500 billion USD, spent on petroleum directly, or about 1500$ per american per year.

Posted by: Neuro Artist | November 10, 2007 at 03:01 PM

"Bent on suicide"

What a great summation of this country's traitorous leadership. Agree 100% that making some phone calls to Congress will change nothing. Look how many times they have sold the little guy, peace, and sanity up the river already. They will either figure it out or initiate the Apocalypse.

Posted by: 2012MIHOP | November 10, 2007 at 03:14 PM