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You forget that the bank liability exposure is limited by selling off loans to Fannie Mae. The ripples will nonetheless be some pretty large waves!


Our real estate here in Calgary is out of control expensive. Places that are more like hovels than homes are going for ridiculous amounts of money. When the oil boom goes bust, people are going to lose their shirts.


I have an aunt who is in California real estate, and she says they are good to go at least until the end of the year. She knows about stuff like this because I talked to her about it. At least I hope she knows. Your graph was slightly misleading because of the way it is topping down again. Don't think the decline is that steep. Like oil, the housing market is starting to peak but won't severely bottom out for some months yet. That is my analysis at least.


Some people will buy at the peaks and sell at the valleys. Go figure...

Real Estate Cycles and Me


1989: Bought house.
2002: Paid off house.
2006: Still there...

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