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Liberal AND Proud

Note to the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department and any finance professional with half a brain.

"It's the GLOBAL economy, stupid."

Global interest rates are all that matters, and they directly impact currency values. Economics 101.

Elaine has talked about it ad nauseum. The M3 is not published for a REASON. The markets have to "guess" at the amount of dollars in the supply. Guessing allows for justification of the stupid valuations, and ignorance of facts on the ground. But, even the markets are inching toward reality...because the trade and debt numbers ARE published...and they are all that matters.

The housing collapse will not be a cause of depression. It will be a symptom of depression. The economic collapse will be caused by greed, avarice and stupidity, as it was the last time.

The dollar is headed for a big time fall that will make current valuations seem like the good old days. Interest rates are inching over 5%...they should be TWICE that. The dollar to euro is approximately 1.36...not even close.

But of course, i don't know anything.

Liberal AND Proud

The "system" is straining under artificial constraints that don't allow it to reach equilibrium.

Unless a real global economic plan, negotiated by GROWNUPS in the USA that understand the realities of life and are willing to put the long term interests of the country ahead of their own greed, is hammered out, this country is going to put itself into an untenable political situation.


The whole picture reflects a very sad state of affairs for the US. If you think about it, California and Nevada are already doomed by huge populations with not enough water. Add in the effects of having a massive drought. Plus add in the need to use nonexistent fresh water to grow food to make into fuel.

Meanwhile, in the foreign shoes, we have this little item in Raw Story (the famous undercover military 'net newspaper):

««China warned Tuesday of unspecified countermeasures if the US Congress adopts a bill on Beijing's foreign exchange regime that could lead to higher US tariffs on Chinese imports....»»

This story already has 103 comments in its unmoderated comment section. (The military literally cannot spare troops to moderate it.)


Statistics on the duration of housing price collapses seem to vary. While an organized real estate market is a fairly recent invention some data suggest 15 year cycles (peak to valley) in severe downturns. Specific market crashes like south Florida starting in the 1920's were even worse.

The national rental market (cost to rent) fell every year in the U.S. between 1915 and 1950.



Are you a machine? This is an exact copy of a paragraph that you have posted several times here, and possibly elsewhere.

After dealing with HP's Customer Service Machine (named "Hal"), I am very suspicious of duplication, especially on a blog.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

I always use the minimum length: 5 years. Housing depressions can last for 1,000 years or more! Rome shrank for that long! Longer! It didn't reach the pre-depression levels of over a million people until the 20th century!


DeVaul, Not me. The 15 year figure is much quoted all over, I agree, but in terms of post-depression era events it does make sense. A lot of things didn't get back to pre-depression levels until the after the end of WW!!.

The "rents" stat comes from a genealogist acquaintance who is expert on NYC housing. He told me that housing built to accommodate new immigrants from the turn of the century through the 19'teens, coupled with the effects from the depression was responsible for a 35 year slide in rents.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Oh, the brownstones built for rich families were abandoned when rail and cars appeared and freed them from the cities to the outer burbs.

So the brownstones were turned into rooming houses. I renovated a bunch of these starting in 1969! One brownstone for one family had EVERY ROOM cut in two! So it doubled the rooms and each had a FAMILY in it during the depression!


What you said about the old brownstones is true, Elaine. My great grandfather packed up his wife and ten kids and left Greenpoint, Brooklyn around 1900. He built a three story, twenty room house in the wilderness of south Brooklyn for his family, a few in-laws and a brother or two for about $25,000. That move alone emptied out nearly half the block back in the old neighbor on Java Street.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Heh. My first husband's family lived on the Lower East Side and they all bought a summer home in Coney Island and turned it into the family's full-time headquarters. Several generations lived there right on the ocean front.


Late payments can and do affect your credit, but nothing hurts your credit worse than "mortgage lates". If you possibly can you want to pay your mortgage payments on time and in full. If this becomes impossible for you to do it's time to do something serious in order to preserve your credit. At some point saving your home may not be the primary concern. Remember, it's just a house and you can always get another house, but if you damage your credit you may not be able to do that. So make sure you have your priorities in order.

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