Investment Houses And Loan Companies Fall Faster And Faster

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The collapsing mortgage market continues and far from slowing down, is accelerating. The inability to understand all this on the part of the media and our financial officers in the Government is a scandal we will pay dearly for this isn't over at all. The witless mortgage companies writing bizarre mortgage contracts didn't stop last year, far from it, they are doing it not just last quarter but this quarter! They are still at it, madly writing bad contracts and watching the older ones go bad at the same time. Digging deeper and deeper into the hole, they enlarge it and now some of the biggest players in this game are going down into bankruptcy.

From Bloomberg:

On Wall Street, Bear Stearns Cos., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., are as good as junk.

Bonds of U.S. investment banks lost about $1.5 billion of their face value this month as the risk of owning the securities increased the most since at least October 2004, according to Merrill indexes. Prices of credit-default swaps based on the debt imply that their credit ratings are below investment grade, data compiled by Moody's Investors Service show.

The highest level of defaults in 10 years on subprime mortgages and a $33 billion pileup of unsold bonds and loans for funding acquisitions are driving investors away from debt of the New York-based securities firms. Concerns about credit quality may get worse because banks promised to provide $300 billion in debt for leveraged buyouts announced this year.

Bloomberg tends to have writers who call the shots. I have used it as a link, more and more because of this. Astonishing opening to a story! The top investment houses are 'junk'? Yesterday, the stock market managed to crawl out of the wreckage of the latest wave of fearful selling but if anyone thinks that is the end of it and everyone is going to rush back into the markets to place their money into the hands of the idiots and fools who are destroying America, they are crazy. These guys have cycled their crummy bosses,into our top government financial positions the guys who were the Goodfellas of these scheming investment houses that invested in wrecking our international standing. I still remember the hearrings in Congress to rubberstamp these guys. The politicians who all get money from these guys in the form of legal bribes we call 'campaign donations' all applauded Paulson, for example. Why, he would fix things! He would negotiate with the Chinese and ignore the Japanese and we would all be bathed in gold!

Indeed, he went to work to strengthen the messed up system we are trapped inside of and now it is devouring us. Instead of changing the fundamentals of our trade problems, he made them much, much worse. Then he thought, delusionally, that he and the US forced China to do what China planned to do way back in the mid 1980s when it seemed impossible: to surplant Japan and the yen as the controlling economic power in Asia. We didn't make China raise the value of the yuan. They raised it because it is time to begin moving towards this goal.

From one of the readers of this news service, Mr. Powell, a Phd.MBA (evidently, one of the smart ones, there are smart ones out there!) sent me his URL and he has interesting charts there:

Preface. The Impact of an Exponentially-Increasing Trade Deficit:
We're Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The U.S. economy will collapse. Repeat. The U.S. economy, and probably the world economy, will collapse because of the United States' exponentially-increasing trade deficit.

Anyone with a brain can see something went terribly wrong with the US back under Nixon. Our trade deficit began small and then took off in the last 10 years. The second graph shows the true nature of our fix: international investment funds. Note the bulge in the years of great inflation and at the very beginning of the trade deficit: this was the US investment houses and corporations in our industrial base outsourcing our factories. Once that was done, the money flow has been in the opposite direction. The red ink is, as on all our scales, flowing like blood from a severed limb. This flood isn't being staunched, it is flowing ever more.

From the Bloomberg article:

Prices of credit-default swaps for Goldman, the biggest investment bank by market value, Merrill, the third largest, and Lehman, the No. 1 mortgage bond underwriter, also equate to a Ba1 rating, data from Moody's credit strategy group show. Bonds of New York-based Goldman and Merrill are rated Aa3, seven levels higher than swaps suggest. Lehman is rated A1, the same as Bear Stearns.

About 1 percent of the thousands of companies followed by Moody's have a gap of more than five levels between their actual and implied rankings, analyst Tony Smith said in a July 19 report titled ``Broker Securities Climb a Wall of Worry.''

Wow. Just look at that. Talk about a mismatch between reality and fantasy. Why even bother with Moody's ratings if they won't rate anything correctly? This is part of a typical balloon scandal. Everything is hysterically overvalued and then everyone is encouraged to overspend on things that cannot support the financing behind it. If people can't afford $600,000 houses then they can't afford them! Creating means for people without means to buy things they can't afford is pure insanity! And the ratings of these securities which are grossly overvalued were enabled by Moody's who didn't cast a harsh light on these whores but rather cast a backlit glow on haggard Wall Street walkers seeking Johns in the dark.

This is part of the 'wand waving wizards' I keep talking about. The magic of declaring crappy bonds are triple A is magic. Everyone thinks these stinkers are valuable! Only when harsh reality exposes the coyote ugliness of these old whores do investors literally chew off their financial arms to escape the embrace of these supposed triple As. I hope all investors sue Moody and sue this organization to death. It doesn't deserve to be used as a guide if it guides people into traps that suck down all their life savings! Disgusting.

From Bloomberg:

Financing leveraged buyouts and bundling subprime mortgages and bonds into other securities called collateralized debt obligations generated about $21 billion in fees last year, data compiled by Freeman & Co., Thomson Financial and JPMorgan Chase show.

The fees these conmen culled from the herd of investors will seem puny in comparison to the loss of funds we are just now beginning to see. Every penny of these fees should be returned to the investors. These conmen then should be sent to prison. Every financial collapse has these features: previous geniuses and financial wizards see their wands break and they either commit suicide, go to prison or flee the country. Why can't we prevent this sort of madness?

It is simple: greed always wins. I remember when the right wing began their 'greed is good' campaign. This flies in the teeth of 99.9% of history. Interestingly, it flies in the face of nearly all fairy tales. There are so many of them! In many stories, the person is given the choice between a jeweled box or a golden bridle for a wild horse or some such thing and a plain, old, beat up box or bridle. The bad sister or evil brother will invariably choose the rich item and the kindly, loving sister or brother will always want the plain one. Then it turns out, the golden, rich item causes the death of the greedy brother or sister while the plain one leads to marriage and happiness.

Then there are the tales of wives of fishermen demanding more wealth and power from the magic fish or genie. Invariably, she demands to become a god and suddenly the wealth and power vanishes. Indeed, the intersection of money and magic is very strong. For much of wealth can become invisible with great speed. Last year's fine statues and paintings can instantly become ruins and can lie for thousands of years, unattended and unwanted. Because of this, to protect whatever wealth we accumulate, we have to be guardians and not just consumers. Fires consume. And the raunchy antics of rich brats that are in the news such as Paris Hilton who was just disowned and now has no future wealth, for example, these actions of rich children show us how swiftly wealth can be consumed in infantile fires.

I have seen major wealth destroyed this way! And the dangers of the present system are obvious: the guardians ignored the brats burning the wealth and now it is all going poof! Moody was supposed to be a guardian, not hander-outer-of-lollipops.

From the NTY:

The developments are the latest indications that the housing slump will affect a broader segment of the mortgage industry and that the problems will last longer than many officials had suggested earlier this year. Just last week, the nation’s biggest home lender, Countrywide Financial, acknowledged that defaults on second mortgages to prime borrowers were rising quickly.

The New York Stock Exchange never opened trading in shares of American Home Mortgage yesterday after the company said late Friday that it would suspend its dividend and was facing “significant margin calls” from its banks.

Already down 70 percent for the year, shares in A.H.M. fell 39 percent in premarket trading, to $6.39.

Later in the evening, the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, or M.G.I.C., said it would write down its $516 million investment in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization, or C-Bass, possibly to zero. The Radian Group, which has a $518 million stake in C-Bass, also said it might have to write off its investment completely. The rest of C-Bass is owned by its management.

Here are more statistics and bad news. First, do note the name of this latest giant to go down the drain: M.G.I.C.= Magic. All the time, these guys love to pull our legs. Here is a typical example. Just like I said, people were nuts to give their life savings to an outfit called 'Pirates' for example, so it is here. Magic is all about illusions. Only there is another side: in this magic, the illusionist uses swords and runs them through the basket where the lovely girl hides. She hops out and the magician invites the investors into the basket. Then he runs the swords through it and blood runs all over the stage. Peeking inside, he says, 'Ooops, a 100% drop in value! The money is all gone and the investor is dead.'

Here is the official announcement of MaGIC's demise:

MGIC Investment Provides Update on C-BASS Investment MILWAUKEE, July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- MGIC Investment Corporation (NYSE: MTG) ("MGIC") announced today that it has concluded that the value of its investment in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization LLC ("C-BASS") has been materially impaired. C-BASS is a limited liability company whose interests are owned by MGIC, Radian Group Inc. and the management of C-BASS. C-BASS is principally engaged in the business of investing in the credit risk of subprime single-family residential mortgages. Beginning in February 2007, the market for subprime mortgages has experienced significant turmoil, with market dislocations accelerating to unprecedented levels beginning in approximately mid-July 2007.

MGIC's investment in C-BASS consists of approximately $466 million of equity as of June 30, 2007 and an additional $50 million drawn on July 20 and 23, 2007 under a $50 million unsecured credit facility that MGIC provided to C-BASS. As of June 30, 2007 on a pro forma basis reflecting the amounts drawn under this credit facility, MGIC's investment in C-BASS was approximately $516 million. MGIC has not determined the range of an impairment charge, although the upper boundary of the range could be MGIC's entire investment, less any associated tax benefit.

All that nifty talk about money with a stunning final sentence. Oh, they have all this money but for a small craveat: it ain't there no more. The upper boundry of losses is the entire amount? Gads! I would feel real good if I were holding bonds in this outfit.

From the NYT:

Later in the evening, the Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation, or M.G.I.C., said it would write down its $516 million investment in Credit-Based Asset Servicing and Securitization, or C-Bass, possibly to zero. The Radian Group, which has a $518 million stake in C-Bass, also said it might have to write off its investment completely. The rest of C-Bass is owned by its management.

Note the chart here: the stocks took off when the Federal Reserve dropped rates to 1%. And the guys writing the Alt A loans thought they were all so smart because the rate differential between 6% and 1% was so great. But now the Fed is asking for over 4% and the higher it goes, the worse the differential and it shrinks and the loans become increasingly worthless. We must never loose sight on the real criminal in all this: the Federal Reserve. They cook these bubbles and the investment houses that usually run the Treasury enable this. They are the guys who build the magic boxes for the magicians to use. And they are the ones who hand over the real sword which slays the investors.

Here is another chart (click to enlarge) that shows who is selling off this company's stocks and look at the insider trading! The big boy himself is selling like mad. Whenever bosses sell their own stocks, run for the hills. 400,000 shares is a lot of insider wanting to be outsider, I would say.

And the long-term debt is $5.3 billion. This callapse dwarfs the previous collapses but it is not the last. It is still only the beginning. For the big guys may be trembling but they aren't falling, yet. This process takes time and the rush to declare it all over is a sign of panic not security.

Here is the home page of the AHMIC:

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.'s primary goals in managing its portfolio are to gain yield through the benefit of self-origination, and otherwise seek to reduce risk. The Company attempts to minimize the risks associated with holding a leveraged portfolio of securitized loans held for investment by approximately matching the duration of its securitized loans held for investment with the duration of the liabilities the Company utilizes to finance those loans. The Company further seeks to mitigate risk by investing primarily in adjustable-rate mortgage ("ARM") and hybrid-ARM securitized loans.

The Company operates a mortgage origination business of retail offices through its wholly-owned subsidiary, American Home Mortgage Corp., wholesale loan production offices through its American Brokers Conduit Division and also purchases loans though its correspondent channel. The Company has been consistently ranked by National Mortgage News as one of the nation's largest residential mortgage lenders.

Here is some information from the American Home Mortgage Investment people:

Looking at this set of numbers of the ARM loans by this corporation shows how they got themsevles in trouble. Even as we approached the terrible day of reckoning, July 19th, this soon to be defunct company was still handing out ARMs like candy! The average price of the house being mortgaged fell from the dizzy heights of 2006 but look at the other numbers! Over 7% interest? Wow. These aren't cheap loans like we see in the ads on most web pages! And over half of them were for negative amortizations! This means the guy paying this loan sees the amount owed on the principal rise every month! How can so many loans be for such a foolish thing? This works only in a rising market, not a falling market!

From the NYT:

Earlier yesterday, IKB Deutsche Industriebank, a bank based in Düsseldorf, Germany, that provides loans to midsize companies, said that investments in American mortgage securities that it had pronounced healthy just 10 days ago had fallen sharply and would be taken over by a German state bank, KfW, which owns 37 percent of IKB. The bank’s chief executive, Stefan Ortseifen, said he would retire.

At A.H.M., lenders appear to have issued margin calls on debt that the company used to buy mortgage-backed securities that include its loans and those made by other lenders. At the end of March, the company had borrowed $6.7 billion to finance such investments and had $19.3 billion in liabilities.

July 19th will be seen as the beginning of the panic. All panics don't go straight down. They yo-yo from the peak to half of the first year's rise in value. Then the real bear market begins six months to a year later. This is when the entire bubble is erased and driven ever lower. Classically, it loses value from the peak to around 60-75%. This happens about once every 15 years. This means anyone my age has seen several. I know I have.

The trick of the magicians is to make people forget the past. Previous bubble bustings are called 'unique' and were due to some happenstance. The builders of the bubble were innocent. The few con men go to prison so all is well and the others commit suicide or flee the country so they won't cheap people a second time. Then the magicians sneak out their wands and begin their waving all over again. Europe is supposed to be stronger than the US but it isn't, no one is. We are the world's #1 economy and if we tank, the world tanks with us. And of course, in the background looms this dragon: we have been demanding it save us for the last 5 years and now we are whacking at the dragon and screaming like a twarted baby. Will the dragon save us from our own follies? Or will it laugh to death?

From the NYT:

The disclosure by IKB that its fund, Rhineland Funding, was having problems riled credit markets in Europe. Though it is a relatively small bank, investors worried that it may be the first of many others that could find itself in similar circumstances. In recent weeks, hedge funds as far as Australia have suffered big losses because of bets on American mortgage securities.

“The question right now is whether it will be solely a crisis for financial markets or for the real economy,” said Jochen Felsenheimer, head of credit strategy at UniCredit in Munich. “The challenge that we are facing is that these crises can be self-fulfilling.”

I hate it when the financiers suddenly pretend their shennanigans won't effect 'the REAL economy.' Of course it will. Also note how they backhandedly will admit they are magicians trying to fool people with funny money. But funny money magic tricks lead to world wars if they are connected with hiding the true conditon of a dying empire! The US is a dying empire. Even as we try to extend our power, it is poorly projected to the point that we can't control even tiny, disarmed nations we invade. The expenditures of funds compared to returns stink. And the sagging fortunes of America is at the heart of this financial mess aggravated by Bush tax cuts and Greenspan Federal rates cuts.

From the NYT:

“So far the banks feel pretty comfortable,” Mr. Best said. “There is a pretty high threshold before they would take a hit.”

And when did the big banks suffer in the Great Depression? In 1929? Or did they all go under in 1933 when the President suddenly confiscated all the gold bonds and rendered the ones still held 'illegal'? I have one of these bonds a relative kept as a reminder of the past! The internet is infested with people peddling gold bonds as a means of protection from general banking collapse. People trying to peddle their gold rings and diamonds in the wake of the banking collapse of 1933 couldn't find buyers. The value of valuables collapsed along with all the other assets.

For bankers to pretend they won't be harmed is pure silliness. Just as they assured us that hedge funds would spread the risk and therefore there was no limit to the number of deadbeats one could loan money to, so it is here: they are LYING. Like all con men, they know they must tell fairy tales that are false in order to keep the con game going a little bit further. Investing is at the heart of capitalism. And there is sane investing versus stupid investing. And being able to tell the difference is vital. The government should encourage this, not had over the hen house to the investment banking foxes! This is why the Treasury should NEVER be run by a Wall Street big wig. They always encourage bubbles, this makes them rich!

Here is a historic review of the month before the panic of October, 1929:

On September 1, 1929, with values on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) calculated at just under $90 billion, bank financed broker's (margin) loans equaled almost 9% of this total - the vast majority of which was channeled into NYSE stocks. Additional margin loans were funded by the well healed brokers, who were able to call on funds from "others," including corporations, wealthy individuals, foreign sources and out-of-town banks. Loans extended directly by banks on securities of all sorts were just as high. There was well over $7 billion in unsecured bank loans, and debts from installment purchases reached into the billions of dollars as well.

From all over the nation and the world, capital was attracted to New York and channeled by speculators into approximately 42 issues on the Big Board and a small number of other attractive issues on the other national exchanges, pushing them continuously upwards from one new high to another.

This massive inflow of private credit limited Federal Reserve Bank efforts to dampen the speculative excess. These efforts had pushed short term "call" rates to and above 15% in March, April, May, and July -- but they would not exceed 10% after the end of August.

The bond market was dull and most of the rest of the shares listed on the stock exchanges showed as many declines as advances. Despite the great bull market, the dividend yield average for NYSE stocks only briefly dipped below 3%. Except for France and the tiny Scandinavian nations, credit dried up all over Europe.

In the first 10 months of 1929, there was $9.2 billion in new securities issued. This was 30% more than in any previous 10 month period. Yet, so great was the flow of credit capital into New York that the supply remained capable of meeting all demands. In September, 1929, speculators could borrow at rates ranging from 8% to 10% and, from and after the first week in October, 1929, at 7% and less.

New York banks were able to increase their reserves. Many brokers were able to enforce new minimum margin levels ranging from 30%-to-50% on speculative stocks, and investment trusts were able to sell out a large portion of their holdings and carry hundreds of millions of dollars in cash and liquid assets.

Reading this is so...depressing. One of the most splendid tricks used by the guys running our economic systems is to laud international currency value trading and the fiat currency system. Then, when asked to explain the cause of massive panics and currency value failures and above all, depressions, they always throw up their hands and express befuddlement. So it is with the Great Depression. A very bankrupt Britian tried to hang onto its rule of the planet while borrowing money like crazy from the Chiense dragon...oops...from Miz America. And she, like China today, had huge FOREX reserves! So you would think the transition from British rule to American would be smooth?

It was not. And the cause, ultimately, of the Great Depression was Germany refusing to pay anyone back and Britain too bankrupt and poor to survive this. So it is here: the obvious parallel is China is the US to the US being Britain. And far from being able to prevent a global depression, the Chinese can no more stop this than we could stop Britain. For the same reason: Britain ruled the Seven Seas! They go down, world trade collapsed!

However, the overextended financial leverage meant that even a lull would be intolerable. On September 4, it was reported that broker's loans had increased $400 million in the month of August. This report caused a nervous downward reaction in stock prices. But the market started back up the next day. Then, at two o'clock, the ticker flashed the news that a "statistician" - Roger Babson - predicted a great break in stock prices - the greatest break ever - only, he didn't know when it would occur.

Bankers, some economists, and Babson himself, had been uttering dire warnings for well over a year without any previous effect. However, the demand for stock at present high prices and low yields had grown so thin, and the competing stock offerings - old and new - had grown so vast, and high interest rates and high price/earnings ratios so obvious, that this time a spectacular fifty minute crash ensued.

At the news, speculators started selling out and selling short. The market was honeycombed by "stop loss" orders designed to protect the profits of the last three months. These were reached in minutes and a vast flood of selling was thrown on the market "at the market" only to find few buyers at anywhere near previous prices. Finally, a flood of new buying poured in to take advantage of the low "bargain" prices and, with the help of "covering" by the shorts, provided a slight recovery in the last ten minutes. However, industrials were down over $10 (about 3%) for the day - all in the last hectic hour.

All market collapses are the same. They go up and up even as they go down. This is the violent yo-yo effect we are seeing today. This effect is a sign it is about to collapse. The government always intervenes and the Federal Reserve and Treasury will rush about the planet trying to undo the obvious messes they caused. As a person who has done tons of backhoe work at building sites, when a cave-in occurs, you can't rush in and dig it out. You have to wait for it to finish, you might even have to help it along or it buries you and more than one digger has died this way.

The time was not yet ripe. An economist - the prominent Yale Prof. Irving Fisher - was quickly found to contradict Babson. "Official" Wall Street sneered at Babson's "intemperate predictions." The advance would continue as before - despite such "gratuitous" forecasts.

HAHAHA. They never, ever change. The bears are always blamed for scaring everyone when they point out the obvious. And the magicians do believe waving wands and chanting 'Don't listen to the bears' will work.

Ownership (equity) capital was leaving the market. It had begun when the investment trusts started to build up their cash holdings. One trust, International Equities Corp., was reported holding 94% of its assets in cash. There was a shift towards bonds and utilities stocks, which was reflected in the rise of these prices. British investment trusts were getting out - and would stay out - resulting in excellent profits for 1929.

As steel production continued to slip, speculative issues slipped lower, and margin requirements and credit for margin speculators tightened. The "Hatry" scandal - which would cost investors about $57 1/2 million - broke in England at about the same time that the Bank of England was forced to raise its discount rate to 6 1/2%. This initiated a small but significant flow of capital out of Wall Street and back to England.

The market was struck by several sharp declines and sharp, but much smaller, recoveries as each drop drew more speculators in to buy at new "bargain" prices. After each drop, "experts" could be found for "confidence game" assertions that the liquidation had run its course. Brokers were congratulating themselves that their foresight in raising margin requirements had kept the number of margin calls low.

Yesterday's headlines were all about investors buying bargains. Things seldom change. The template was made long ago and it always works, doesn't it?

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Comments

[teddy]

The Japanese kamikaze pilots flew some successful missions yesterday to depress the yen for the homeland. And probably the US hedge fund traitors were more than happy to accept this "gift" from a foreign government. And it appears the Fed was busy swapping good debt for toxic subprime debt to keep the New World Order afloat. So many more deals to do to dismantle America's industrial base and so little time to do it......when greed is your driver.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

You are right, Teddy.

Will write about that later.

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Investment Houses And Loan Companies Fall Faster And Faster
E. Mills added that many banks are still in 2009 to actively invest in securities, including in order to compensate for the reduction of interest rates on loans. "This is definitely one of the reasons (to increase investments in securities), but at this point drop rates yet slowed down" - she said. However, E. Mills drew attention to the fact that interest rates on investments in securities are plummeting as well. thank you

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