Panic Attacks Hit Asset-Backed Securities Hard

Elaine Meinel Supkis

During the funny money era starting in 2002, it is nearly impossible to keep up with all the goofy money-making schemes thought up by thoughtless financiers. Only while their tricks are coming home to roost like so many hungry vultures, do we see and understand this plethora of goofy schemes. The biggest one is the 'carry trade' business launched by outsiders noting that Japan had the world's most bizarre central bank and thus, insane interest rates. The other schemes are pure gambling excesses disguised as investments. I hope readers aren't bored by all this, I am trying to understand it all, myself and find it most fascinating.

From Bloomberg:

Bear Stearns Cos., manager of two hedge funds that collapsed last month, halted redemptions from a third fund after a slump in credit markets prompted investors to demand their money back.

The Bear Stearns Asset-Backed Securities Fund had about $900 million invested in asset-backed securities, including mortgage bonds, spokesman Russell Sherman said today in a telephone interview. The fund was overwhelmed by redemption requests, Sherman said.

Bear Stearns stocks will live up to its name today. I forsee this financia group going under in the next year. If the Japanese carry trade keeps running smoothly, they might be able to rush over to Tokyo to stuff their empty valises full again but the Japanese system is finally reaching the point of instability. Namely, political instability. The scheme to enrich the exporting corporations at the expense of the working class in Japan is finally so crushingly nasty, the voters for the first time, are all fired up and voting out of office, as many Liberal Democratic Party members as possible.

From Bloomberg:

The yen leapt to a three-month high against the euro and the strongest versus the pound since May as subprime mortgage losses infected banks and hedge funds, prompting investors to unwind carry trades.

The yen rose against all 16 most-active currencies as the U.S. subprime debacle prompted traders to dump investments in stocks and corporate bonds funded by borrowing in Japan. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, whose high yields are a magnet for the carry trade, were among the biggest decliners.

For the last three years I have marveled how Japan could be the only nation on earth to have negative inflation. If they were like Zimbabwe and were a third world nation with a demented leaders, it might have made some sense. But not only were they a top industrial nation, they were the #2 economy of the world on top of being the #1 trade surplus nation! And with near zero unemployment! Where was the power to get pay raises in Japan, I wondered.

But the statistics of the Bank of Japan itself showed what was afoot. Industries were seeing inflation but they wrung it all out by outsourcing and by brutally pushing down wages with the threat of futher outsourcing. Just like the world's #1 economy was doing to its own working class. During the entire last 2 years while the yen was being maliciously throttled by the Bank of Japan and Japan's LDP leaders, I marveled as to how the US and Japan were able to stampede all the other Group nations like the G8 and G12 into attacking only China's currency.

Well, the days of the weak yen are now ending. Inflation is obvious in Japan and the fiction that Japan needs 0% interest to fix an obviously fake depression has attracted the attention of many currency traders and others who are now, and we must thank Iran for forcing Japan to use yen to buy oil, now that China is buying not dollars but yen, as we demanded...the yen is rising in value rapidly.

From the Nikkei:

Land Prices Climb 8.6% For Second Straight Annual Increase

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Average land prices nationwide as of Jan. 1 rose 8.6% from a year earlier to 126,000 yen per square meter, to mark the second consecutive year of increase, according to data released by the National Tax Agency Wednesday.
*************************************
Stocks: Plunge In Morning On Wall St., Political Woes

TOKYO (Kyodo)--Tokyo stocks plunged Wednesday morning, with market sentiment undermined by overnight declines in U.S. shares and political uncertainty after the massive defeat of Japan's ruling coalition in Sunday's upper house election.
***************************************

The banks of Japan attract little in the way of savings thanks to the ahistorical and totally idiotic near 0% interest they offer. Finally, the vast majority of Japanese savers have figured out the truth and have moved their funds overseas or to funds that 'carry' these yen to richer grazing grounds and this is the 'carry trade' in a nutshell. No major industrial nation can strip itself of all its wealth in order to make one segment much richer---forever. Any system that does this collapses in the end. The US is doing this right now in the opposite way: we are not saving anymore, we are spending like crazy. Our savings rate is now negative and our own banking system no longer is supported by thrifty workers saving money for the future but is running on...the savings of the Japanese workers!

This two-faced, yin/yan system began to break down about two years ago and the money from Japan began to flow to other nations or the euro in Europe. The dollar's drop against all other currencies was worthless so long as the Japanese refused to support their own yen. And the whole excuse of our mass monetary suicide mission was rendered worthless as the dollar thanks to the yen dropping even faster.

But the dynamics have now changed! Without the help of either Japan's or America's central bankers. With fiat currencies, we will have unstable relative values all the time and there is a lot of wealth being generated off of this instability but when it becomes too unstable, making money becomes more difficult because placing bets about future value becomes nearly impossible and the randomness of it all ends up jerking everyone around. The system this last 7 years has been remarkably stable: the dollar and the yen were both dropping, the yen faster than the dollar. The jerks who bet this would continue forever will now be hosed as this dynamic switches gears. And the host of funny money organizations we see all over the place will continue to die off.

From the story above:

Bear Stearns has no plans to close the fund, which has $50 million in cash and gets about $13 million in principal and interest monthly, Sherman said. By suspending redemptions, the fund managers can avoid selling assets at depressed prices.

The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that the fund was up 5 percent (Elaine here: hahaha---oh, wow! Less than the worst performing CD!) this year through June, before its performance plummeted in July.

Isn't it amazing that a risky hedge fund made its investors only 5% last year? They gave their money to the Bear so it would make more, not less, than government bonds! No wonder they are demanding their money back! And the admission that there is no money isn't reassuring to investors. Huffily saying they will 'protect' the investors by not selling in a down market is hilarious. Even a gullible investor knows, they are protecting only their own asses, not the investor's assets. So long as this fund makes slightly less than government bonds, they can happily declare, it is not bankrupt.

From the Bear Stearns story:

``We don't believe it's prudent or in the interests of our investors to sell assets in this current environment,'' Sherman said. ``The fund portfolio is well positioned to wait out the market uncertainty.''

But the downside to this pretty scheme of ripping off investors is---they won't invest in any Bear Stearns instruments for many years to come. And so Bear Stearns can kiss their own asset asses goodbye.

Today, we will hear more news concerning the very newest 'instrument' or I would suggest, gambling scheme, devised by the big financial houses: PAUG CDS and the CMBX funds. PAUG is 'pay-as-you-go (broke) certificates of deposit and CMBX stands for 'commercial mortgage-backed securities.' We have heard a lot of stuff before July 19th (which will be called the Day of Disaster in the future) about how strong commercial real estate is compared to domestic housing but the numbers flowing out of this massive train wreck is just beginning to make the news! For commercial real estate securities is in full collapse right now!

Click here for the entire Markit.com PDF file that explains the newest goofy scheme to 'spread risk': the pay-as-you-go casino.

Here is an amusing flow chart illustrating this latest schem to create a win/win situation that is rapidly turning into a lose/lose blood bath:

I altered the simple box graph flow chart to make it a tad scarier. In this scheme, a buyer is offered some inducement to hold hot securities that are in trouble or that are going really well. Namely, if things are going really nice, people can bid up the value of a holding. If they go bad, they can sell it by adding a little magical number, namely, by adding 'points' to the interest rates of the CDs. The presumption being, things will always go up and up and even in a down market, will go up via some sort of inside-trading trickery. I love the 'floating payment event' which has a little explosion icon. This is code for 'really bad news in a really bad bear market' when the number of sellers suddenly outnumber the number of buyers of these daily exchange bonds. These CDs mature every six months so the group of buyers and sellers are stuck with each other while they shove the same properties back and forth. The schem was, they make lots of money moving money around in this closed, charmed circle.

But it looks more and more like 'Two go in, one comes out' in the style of Thunderdome. These poor guys who thought they would get rich while playing in a casino now find themselves in a dire mess, chopping each other's investment apart with chainsaws.

Here is a chart showing the 'spread' as of yesterday, within these various goofy Thunderdome risk spreading schemes:

I put the difference between the high and lows in red. But the column to look at is the 'spread' section. This refers to something dear to all bookie's hearts: a scheme to lure in gamblers by handicapping obvious winners or boosting obvious losers.

From Wikipedia:

Spread betting was invented by Charles K. McNeil, a math teacher from Connecticut who became a bookmaker in Chicago in the 1940s [1]. The concept was exported to the United Kingdom in the 1980s. In North America, the bettor usually bets that the difference in the scores of two teams will be less than or greater than a value specified by the bookmaker. For example, if a bettor places a bet on an underdog in an American football game when the spread is 3.5 points, he is said to take the points; he will win his bet if the underdog's score plus 3.5 points is greater than the favourite's score. If he had taken the favourite, he would have been giving the points and would win if the favourite's score minus 3.5 points was greater than the underdog's score.

Gambling on sports games was very illegal. It causes endless scandals, of course. Horse racing is all about betting and it was legalized during the difficulties of the Great Depression as a means of raising tax money without raising taxes here in New York. Dog and horse racing took off, of course. But since then, all government agencies have become addicted to gambling and it has spread like a cancer across the land. Everyone gambles all the time. I hate going to 'convenience' stores because of gamblers clustering about the counter, wasting my time while they agonize over which tickets to buy and every month, there are more gambling schemes competing for the gullible gambler's dollars.

These gaudy baubles have leeched into all systems at this point. The CMBX scheme was cooked up by guys who like to bet on football and baseball games. They thought it would be a blast to do it with real-value real estate. Well, since they are gambling with something real and not something meaningless like games for children (which is what all those sports really are), they are going to now be badly burned and worse, will set the world's financial houses on fire.

Evidently, according to this latest CMBX tables, the numbers being offered are tremendously high because the sellers of yesterday's script can't find any takers. I guess these gamblers never played 'hot potato' as children? We used to do this with a pillow. We would play Mendelsohn's 'A Midsummer's Night Dream' and if one was caught with the pillow when the Wedding March began, you lose. So the throwing of this pillow between 5 increasingly hysterical children would go faster and faster until we would barely touch it as we knew the dread Wedding music would begin! Well, there are always losers in these betting games but one entity that absolutely does not want to lose is the bookie himself!

Not anyone is made to be a bookie. I remember explaining all this to the Chinese many years ago. Namely, the person organizing the gambling schemes MUST ALWAYS win. If they lose too often, namely, if they let too many people win lots of money and then EXIT THE CASINO, either you have to mug him or lure him back to lose the money again. Governments can't afford to lose any more than casino operators or bookies. They are the ultimate muggers. This is why I warn gold bugs to beware: the governments of the world have a very nasty history of mugging anyone with gold reserves.

The other gambling scheme, the ABX index game, I have talked about in the past. The game is pretty much over in this scheme. The funds are now in full collapse and this isn't ending, it is probably accelerating and the news about the CMBX funds will fuel fears in the ABX index gamblers and they are all rushing to the door of these goofy casinos only the guys guarding the exits have chainsaws. Two investors go in and none come out in this Thunderdome! For the casino must always win no matter what.

From Sudden Debt:

Let's look at the price of risk across all asset classes, as measured by their credit default swaps:
1. Home mortgages, as measured by the ABX indexes, are now trading at spreads at least 2-3 letters below stated, i.e. AAA is trading like BBB, AA like BB, etc. The BBB and BBB- tranches are effectively trading as if already in default.

2. Likewise for commercial real estate mortgages, as measured by the CMBX indexes. In fact, such mortgages appear even more distressed than residential ones.

3. High yield bond spreads (CDX HY) have widened from 250 bp to 525 bp literally in days.

4. Investment grade bond spreads (CDX IG) have widened from 35 bp to 77 bp, also within days.

5. Syndicated leveraged loan spreads (LCDX) have gone from 90 bp to 370 bp, again in days.

Here is some more Normura pdf text explaining the auction system:

The credit events are admitted here. This is bankruptcy or just the inability to pay even one payment on money owed in a business deal concerning business real estate. But they were short-sighted to think these were the ONLY causes of a collapse of this scheme! Pure, unadulterated panic has spread like wildfire and is causing more than one reckless gambler who thought the financial houses and the hell hounds guarding the gates to Hell had come up with a fool-proof scheme to protect everyone even as they sought out increasingly risky schemes! The sight of one of the top finance firms, Bear Stearns, slamming the gates shut leaving the poor investors outside with rabid three-headed hounds hunting them scared all the rest of these people and now they are all running to safe havens and more and more financial houses are now being forced to shut their doors in the faces of frightened investors who are now running to someone, anyone who can now give them the barest protections from inflation.

And this is the weakness of all these schemes! They cannot think of all possible but obvious eventualities! They refuse to do this! The Treasury and the Security and Exchange Commission are supposed to prevent this sort of stupid thing! There is no way it should have occured in the first place. All financial schemes MUST include and explain 'panic'. This is a major force in the stock market world! It is famously so! But the cruelty of these schemes lies right there: they all claim to be proof AGAINST PANIC! Namely, they have a new way to avoid PANIC!

Lovers of paganism like myself knows that the God Pan is hard to stop. Once he gets people in his grip, they run riot. One tool he uses is wine. Add to this, the Pegasus elements of women and song and you get to have 'a party' but these parties always fall apart into panic as everyone rolls down Mt. Olympus and the satyrs and meanads go crazy and rip up goats and have sex all over the landscape. And certainly this is how our markets work! For this is a very deep human element: the need to go a bit crazy and be too exuberant and then drunkenly running around in the dark, banging into doors and falling down the stairs. I remember Greenspan warning us about irrational exuberance right before he irrationally opened the taps at the bar and handed out LITERALLY free drinks to one and all! And boy, did they ever get plastered!

From Forbes:

The number of U.S. homes facing foreclosure surged 58 percent in the first six months of the year, the latest sign of mounting problems in the mortgage industry, a data firm said Monday.

In all, 573,397 properties across the nation reported some sort of foreclosure activity in the first half of this year, including receiving notices of default, auction sale notices or being repossessed by lenders, Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. said.

Half a million houses in foreclosure! Amazing. And it will easily be 2 million in a year. Far from being over, the real estate meltdown has barely begun. Remember those trailer park retirees in Florida who were negotiating for a $500+ million land deal? Well, they can kiss their happy dreams of infinite wealth goodbye! This is rather sad for them for they now have to live the remaining years mired in deepest regret and sorrow instead of enjoying the bounty of their last years living in the pleasant sun and having innocent fun! Now, they must always live in the shadow of shattered dreams.

There are many sub-prime loans out there but on top of this, there is a mountain of debt in America which means people can't survive for even one week if they are unemployed or some other bad event happens! Overextended, way too many people are just one paycheck away from disaster. This is very bad. Normally, during 'good times' one saves for bad times for these come like clockwork. The ultimate bad times is our last years! We must save for that. But everyone including our government used the excuse of good times to NOT save but to go into debt! When bad times comes, we have no reserves. This is one of several reasons why taxes must go up in good times and and come down in bad times. Instead, this is reversed: in good times, taxes are cut and in bad times, raised! How stupid can people be?

From Market Watch:

Healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday said it will cut costs in its pharmaceutical segment and stent business as part of a sweeping restructuring plan, and prune 3% to 4% of its global workforce.

And there is little good news as far as I can see! The recent orgy of mergers and buy-outs didn't strengthen anyone, it weakened our entire system. It was more a cancer or a fever rather than a good thing that is healthy for our economic systems.

From Finance Week, UK:

Private sector financial incentives have shaken up the risk-averse culture of state-owned investment bank WestLB – but not in the way its management intended. Chief executive Thomas Fischer and chief risk officer Matthijs ven den Adel announced their departure yesterday, following the resignation of investment bank chief Robert Stein two weeks ago, and other management board members may follow after the bank admitted that illegal share trading may have underlain first-half losses now exceeding £150m. Its internal investigations suggest that traders used the bank’s own money – and possibly its inside information – to magnify their profits on trading blue-chip German shares, thereby triggering large performance-related bonuses. Their activities have also attracted the attention of Germany’s securities regulator and fraud investigators.

Germans are very risk-adverse and when risk raises its ugly head, they head for the doors. And this is part of the general panic going on. Throughout this entire system, there are lots of scared people some of whom have a good idea of history and what can happen next. This is why I harp on the stupid American plan to hyper-arm everyone from the Middle East to the Far East as well as Eastern Europe and everywhere.

From the Deutsche Börse:

The majority vote of ISE shareholders set another milestone to create the leading transatlantic derivatives marketplace with significant USD and Euro product coverage. It will further strengthen Eurex’s position as the leading global derivatives marketplace and will create the undisputed market leader in individual equity, equity index and long-term interest rate derivatives worldwide; the combined overall trading volume of both exchanges in 2006 was 2.1 billion contracts. Eurex’s and ISE’s complementary member bases and product portfolios provide significant growth opportunities across asset classes and national boundaries.

And right on the heels of this panic which began on July 19th and seems to be spreading like wildfire comes this news? Talk about bad timing and all that. They all think, if they join together, they can Godzilla their way through a major panic event. On top of this, they will blame frightened investors for everything as if this emotional outburst if purely psychological and not real fear thanks to the rising storm and the lightning bolts killing investors hither and yon.

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Comments

[DeVaul]

The investors who still remain alive in the Bear Stearns Thunderdome main event are nervously awaiting the next act, which is Tina Turner (maker of the law) flying in screeching like a Banshee and pointing her finger at the horrified investors:

"Bust a deal, face the wheel!"

[Cato]

Haven't heard a peep from the $500 trillion derivative book that just sits there like a elephant in our living room. Funny how all is well with that goliath. The stuff that's tanking 'on the books' is peanuts compared to derivatives exposure. Scott Thill (in Alternet.org) wrote an interesting piece on the hyper-reality of American finance. As an empire, we simply redefined the laws of physics and dared skeptics to face the consequences. Russ Winter described the label a non-believer earns in his blog this morning as a "conspiracy crackpot at worst, or a low IQ guy with a bad attitude who won’t play by the rules at best."

Check out the swings on the 10 year rate swaps. Another game the big shots play. They claim they didn't see the tsunami coming. They did. And a forecast of more.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_SRX.U07.E

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

They are too busy running towards the ocean, picking up fish to see any tsunamis.

[Canuck]

“This is why I harp on the stupid American plan to hyper-arm everyone from the Middle East to the Far East as well as Eastern Europe and everywhere”

Interestingly just about every western arms system beyond small arms has GPS embedded. What do you think is the likelihood of these systems being operational in the event of conflict with US/NATO forces? Keep production/sales/technical reliance up, switch off as necessary.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

China will zap all our lovely GPS systems with lasers in the first hours of WWIII. We will begin with nukes and end with spears as it has been famously said.

[Canuck]

Sure Elaine but as a premise to get rid of the useless eaters under conditions less than WWIII it’s ideal. Provide advanced weaponry to certain religious sects/governments let them use said on each other and if they’re ever aimed at you just shut them off or have them squawk their own location to provide targeting data. Very NWO.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

only our own Pentagon has shown on 9/11 it is totally inept when it comes to protecting the USA.

[DeVaul]

Yeah, the "useless eaters" will end up being residents in a large US city, given the Pentagon's reputations for snafu's.

However, it would not surprise me at all of Canuck's premise were correct. It would only surprise me if it actually worked with no blowback -- something the Pentagon is not known for.

I stand by my original opinion: that the elites of the world have nothing to gain from nuclear war, but very much to gain from endless conventional wars, famines, and epidemics far from their homes and estates. They must also keep their own peasants alive, or they will have to clean their own toilets.

It is strange, but when I worked in the coal mines, I often heard my co-workers say: "Ahh, let's just nuk'em." But, when I was working close to the rich and powerful oil barons, I never heard any of them say that. Instead, they spent many hours drinking and scheming in the lounges of expensive hotels and restaurants.

[lord-templeton]

to get out of this bloody mess the very secret « Working Group on Financial Markets » created by the Executive Order 12631 under Reagan in Mars 1988, alias « Plunge Protection Team » according to the Washington Post, plan to attack Iran in the last week of august. See LEAP/E2020 on the web
in other words the virtual "blood bath" on the market is changing in a real blood bath, as if irak is not enough ! Dick Cheney and his dirty gang strike again !

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[haron]

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