Speculative Bubbles Grow Outside US

September 28, 2007

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Japan's export economy surges ever higher while the depression inside Fortress Japan gets even worse. The UAW have surrendered to the new reality that our children will increasingly be driven downwards as wages and benefits for them are dropped while preserving the goodies of the Baby Boomer workers. FOREX markets surge 71% in less than 3 years as the world's greatest speculative bubble grows ever faster. And interest rate manipulations by the world's biggest central banks are making this worse and worse. This is directly connected to the sudden ballooning of the FOREX reserves held by foreign powers over the last 10 years. Overseas, many writers are speculating that Saudi Arabia is now betting against the US in these markets. This bubble will burst due to the US declaring bankruptcy due to the collapse of the dollar.

From Bloomberg:

Japan's industrial output surged at the fastest pace in almost four years and household spending rebounded, signaling the economy may weather a U.S. slowdown.

Production rose 3.4 percent from July to a record, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in Tokyo today. Spending by households climbed 1.6 percent from a year earlier, beating forecasts for a 1.2 percent gain.

The Bank of Japan's Tankan survey next week will show whether companies expect overseas demand to remain strong as the worst U.S. housing slump since 1991 threatens to curb global economic growth. Separate reports showed consumer prices fell for a seventh month and the unemployment rate increased.

The schizophrenic Japanese economy continues to astonish. Tracking the real situation of Japanese-owned businesses is very difficult due to outsourcing. But the results of the outsourcing are obvious: Japan's trade surplus profits are growing at a tremendous rate. None of this helps the Japanese workers. As per usual, the unemployment situation in the Fortress continues to get worse and consumer ability to bid on anything continues to fall. Anyone doing business with Japan will find it hard to eke out sales within Fortress Japan. This queer situation where the world's #2 industrial power that has virtually no resources and must import a lot of its raw materials, continues to expand its domination of world trade while at the same time, keeping inflation negative in a world of rising inflation due to rising cost of raw materials.

Normally, when a country must import lots of raw materials in order to manufacture things, they strive to have a strong currency so the raw materials have a lower overhead cost. But Japan doesn't use the yen to buy raw materials if they can avoid this, they use euros and dollars. So long as they keep their currency lower than manufacturing rivals, if they pull in their rival's currencies via trade, they don't need a strong currency at all, they just don't use it.

Iran's break with this regime last July set into motion some strange reverberations within world currency markets for it changed the dynamics of the carry trade.

The news today from Japan should trouble everyone. China and India's entry into world labor markets already has caused simultaneous inflation and depression. Wages and raw material costs are rising rapidly in China and India while wages are dropping in the older industrial nations. Japan has suppressed wages to a very severe degree. The US has done the opposite: it suppresses wages while unleashing increasing inflation which it attempts to hide by not tracking inflation in traditional high-inflation items used daily by its consumers. Back in July, I detected a strong change in world financing and the lower reaches of the economic system. Like a rip tide, the counter-flow below the surface was very powerful and nearly dragged the entire world's banking system outside of China, Russia and Japan, out to sea.

This takes me to a common theme here: the reason China, Russia and Japan were barely touched by the banking crisis this summer is very simple: all three have the world's biggest FOREX reserves! Reserves they are continuing to grow. These three giants are also playing currency games with their huge holdings, these funds are not passive anymore, they are being actively used to move world currency markets for financial advantage. The fact that Japan has reinforced its very odd depression at home should be a strong hint to us, the government controls the economy via currency value manipulations. For this bizarre depression can't be possible during global commodity inflation epochs. And since no other industrialized power is exeriencing Japan's style of depression, this means it is artificial.

From Bloomberg:

Crude oil traded near $83 a barrel in New York after rising the most in four months yesterday as the sliding U.S. dollar drew investors to commodities as alternative investments.

Oil rose more than $2 a barrel yesterday after the dollar fell to a sixth straight record low against the euro. Investors pushed oil to a record last week on concern hurricanes may cut production in the Gulf of Mexico and hamper efforts to prepare fuel stockpiles for peak winter demand.

As I said several months ago, the very fine scrim of dust from volcanoes in Alaska would cut down the potential for hurriances, so it is: the US had many powerful thunderstorms that flooded and destroyed a lot of farmlands but virtually nothing from the Gulf. So the flood/droughts this summer drove up wheat and corn prices to record highs. Which is what I call, 'Lower class inflation.' This is hammering the incomes of the lower half of humanity's financial universe. Food and fuel are inflating as the dollar and yen drop. The price of oil, for the first time, is not rising because of just wars in the Middle East but in general, due to dropping production in countries that are at peace: Saudi Arabia, England, Mexico, Indonesia.

Saudi Arabia's frequent bulletins claiming they would up production in order to 'control' world oil prices proved to be nothing but hot air. Production is down 1.7% from last year. Supposedly, it was going to rise 3% above last year so this is nearly 5% below the rate they had pegged. The dying dollar is troubling them greatly. The meetings of the Central Bank there have yet to be announced. What ever it is, it will roil both the commodity as well as the world FOREX exchanges.

Unlike the magic money produced by global bankers and speculators, the Saudi wealth is the most profitable real wealth generating systems around: nearly pure profit relative to labor and since they don't have to spend much money on protecting their wealth generating systems, the US is doing this nearly for free, they can use this profit to play world markets which is why speculation has swept the planet. The growth of FOREX reserves and th growth of speculation have also fuelled a staggering growth in world debt.

Now we see profits being hammered by high fuel costs. Due to competition, the people utilizing higher fuel costs struggle to pass this on to consumers. In Japan, they are locked out and the elimination of inflation there is tied to the elimination of consumer buying and access to consumer debt. While in the US, consumer debt shot up dramatically while consumer buying was actively encouraged. Indeed, the opposite regimes of the US and Japan are best illustrated by this: the US MUST increase consumer spending no matter what while JAPAN MUST decrease consumer spending no matter what. The tool used by both is to weaken their currencies so the dollar and the yen both decline in world markets. But they have the exact opposite effects at home.

From the Nikkei:

U.S. Mutual Fund Giant Capital Group To Launch 2 Funds In Japan

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Top U.S. mutual fund company Capital Group will begin offering two products for retail investors next month through Nomura Securities Co., making a full-scale entry into the Japanese market, The Nikkei learned Thursday.

The moribund investment landscape in Japan is slowly altering. The Japanese are very worried the US will figure out what is going on. Also, the Chinese have been aggressively moving into entangling their financial systems within the US system so we can't embargo China or make sudden changes without first alerting them and allowing them to influence us first. Also note that the US allows foreign banks and investment houses to operate here but in Japan, there has to be Japanese control, thus, the alliances with Normura. This lets them keep a firm grip on the doors to Fortress Japan.

From CNN:

Fidelity Investments is bringing together its individual investments and workplace savings operations in a reorganization that also carves out Fidelity's employer human resources services into a separate unit.

The moves follow a flurry of recent management changes at the nation's largest mutual fund company that have left unanswered the question of who will succeed 77-year-old Edward C. "Ned" Johnson III as chief executive and chairman.
*snip*
Ned Johnson has given no indication when he'll step down from the chairman and chief executive posts he's held since 1977. The Johnson family has run Fidelity since its founding in 1946. It has a huge presence on Wall Street, with $1.5 trillion in managed assets.

I have written about Fidelity in the past. Note the huge sums they control: it is equal to China's FOREX reserves. Two days ago, the Treasury announced they will try yet again to figure out how money works and how the world's economy works and they are assembling the very richest of the organizations that created this mess to figure things out and tell the Federal Government what to do next. You can bet, they will want to ape the Japanese system as much as possible. Only they can't be too obvious about this for it involves strangling the consumer at home. And our trade partners don't want this at all nor do the American people want this. We are very addicted to the fun of buying today and paying tomorrow. But the relentless forces being applied to the US consumer are continuing.

Just as the Japanese consumer can't access the super-cheap .5% interest money there, here in the US, the lowering of interest rates won't save the US consumer. Just as I said in the last three years, access to lending has been moved into more and more inflationary levels even as prices also rose. We had this queer situation where the Fed rate was super-low but loans to homebuyers and credit cards shot up and up and up. Great wealth is made on this spread. From late 2005 to 2007, the majority of home loans in the hot markets were set at very high FUTURE interest rates. The 'teaser' rates were a sham. As for credit cards, they had low 'teaser' rates for a while, too. But they all strive to lock people into the 21% or higher rates because this is where the profits lie. But the more people are forced to pay high rates on loans, the less they can spend over time, making purchases.

The average person, in other words, lives in a high interest rate world while industry and speculators get to live in a super-below the rate of inflation-interest rate world. Recently I overheard a frantic woman on her cell phone arguing with someone about loans. Seems she was up to her eyeballs in debt and this guy wanted her to co-sign a loan for him. This web of indebtedness is reaching or has already gone past the upper limit for much of America. So long as we could bid up the price of homes using 'teaser' rate mortgages that reset much higher in 2 years, we could still co-sign for loans or access credit easily. But those days died over a year ago.

From Bloomberg:

Sales of new homes in the U.S. dropped more than forecast in August and prices plunged by the most since 1970, underscoring the Federal Reserve's concern about the broader economy.

Purchases declined 8.3 percent to an annual pace of 795,000, the lowest level in more than seven years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median price dropped 7.5 percent from a year ago.

We are in dangerous territory here. The 1970's were a bad time. If we are now at rates that existed back then, we are in serious trouble, no? But the drop in Fed rates can't save the housing market! Already, banks won't loan 30 years at 5% per annum. This is below the rate of potential inflation. And if inflation drops below that, the economy will die because we must inflate money to make up for the rise in raw material prices that go into manufacturing goods, food and energy. President Nixon, still spending wilding on wars and the military, tried to fix things with an artificial depression. Wage and price controls were imposed. This failed because war spending continued.

President Carter cut military spending and the Fed raised interest rates and the price of fuel was allowed to rise and we had a long bout of inflation that killed the stock market because it was not fuelled by wild government spending. Right now, we see wild government spending which Bush is trying to restrain by destroying social services while expanding spending overseas and increasing aid to Israel and military build ups in the Middle East.

From CNN Money:

A survey by Moody's found that most subprime-loan servicers this year had modified only about 1 percent of their adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that had reset to higher rates by the end of July. Servicers, which may or may not be the original lender, collect mortgage payments and deal with defaults and foreclosures.

At the Consumer Credit Counseling Service (CCCS) of San Francisco, which has been working with borrowers referred by lenders, a loan modification is the rare exception rather than the rule.

In a modification, a loan servicer could, for instance, freeze the loan's introductory rate for 24 months or fix that rate for the remainder of the loan.

This is totally impossible: even suggesting more than 1% of the bank loans with 'teaser' rates become permanent means a total collapse of the financial systems set up to exploit the low rates offered to speculators which then make more money than the rate of inflation by making home buyers pay credit-card level rates for mortgages. They can't do this or they would have to retract the value of nearly all the CDOs held by speculators across the planet. All the oil profit money has been parked in funds like these in the hopes of getting a return higher than the rate of the fall of the US dollar. So everyone clings to the hopes that the American consumer can pay more and more for higher and higher rates even as the dollar declines due to sub-inflation interest rates set by the Fed for money the Fed allows banks to offer speculators who ultimately come from oil profit nations like Saudi Arabia.

This is why the Fed can't simply pass a law saying, 'All housing loans will now be reset via fiat at 5%'. Worse, the 'teaser' rates were set very low, some at 2.5%. There is no way even the Fed can decree rates be set this low for 30 years. And if they do save the 25% of the mortgage market that is in trouble due to rising interest rates, then everyone will want this and we get what we had under Greenspan after the Dot Com bubble burst: an even bigger bubble causing even bigger problems as rising inflation cuts the ability to buy anything except at very low interest rate debt accumulation which triggers more inflation, etc. These systems are dynamic and this movement is in a bad direction if one is trying to create a capitalist society.

You can't have capitalism when capital is stolen by a government setting artificial interest rates! It vanishes with astounding speed. Speculation isn't capitalism. Capital gains via investment in manufacturing which takes the energy of human labor and translates it into wealth is the basis of modern economic systems. Yet this is not happening in the US anymore. Capital is flowing into speculation which is the enemy of investment in manufacturing. Or rather, speculators are moving money to Asia to be used in the capitalist way of investing in labor-value-added activities. Lowering interest rates so we can indulge in building and selling housing is utterly foolish if our competitors are using this same money to build their industrial base.

From Bloomberg:

General Motors Corp. and the United Auto Workers agreed to a new class of jobs that would pay about half the current rate, breaking with the UAW's tradition of equal earnings for union members, people with knowledge of the plan said.

Under a four-year accord reached Sept. 26, all new employees would start in so-called non-core jobs such as janitorial and maintenance work and make about $28 an hour in pay and benefits, compared with $51 for present employees, the people said. They asked not to be identified because contract details haven't been released.

Throughout American industry, they are imposing this two-tier system. Older workers get pensions and benefits but each generation after them gets less and less and eventually, all the things that were created during our industrial growth will vanish along with our industries. The two-tier system destroys worker unity as well as forcing the higher-paid workers to side with the bosses in any dispute. Try organizing labor when half of the workers want the status quo no matter what! Impossible.

And so the end of American Labor power continues. The speculators in the stock markets are very pleased with this business deal. But anyone looking down the road of history can see what will happen next: the ability of Americans to buy stuff will continue to collapse and inflation in goods used for daily consumption to stay alive will rise while all other things will either fall or vanish from our lives.

From Bloomberg:

The lower-paid jobs, along with a shift of $50 billion in health-care obligations to the union fund, would help GM Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner narrow an estimated $25- to $30- an-hour cost gap with Toyota Motor Corp.'s U.S. factory workers. GM pressed the UAW for concessions after $12.4 billion in losses for 2005 and 2006.
*snip*
Wagoner previously won an agreement from the UAW to close 12 North American facilities by next year, persuaded 34,400 union workers to accept early retirement or buyouts and for the first time required union retirees to pay health-care premiums. Those changes cut $9 billion a year from GM's costs.
*snip*
Toyota's U.S. workers cost about $47.25 an hour, including $31.50 in pay and $15.75 in benefits, the study found. Toyota doesn't have additional expenses for retirees because so few of its U.S. factory employees have reached retirement.

While new employees promoted to assembly-line positions would get an increase to the same wages as a traditional UAW worker, their benefits would stay at a lower level, the people said. They weren't able to provide a breakdown between wages and benefits.

Eventually, US workers will have no benefits. The unions are pretty much dead. And no one can strike when they are in too much debt and have no savings. So everyone will slog along. But the fatal slide into depression will continue. Sales will flounder. Note also how the depression in wages from Japan are leeching over to the US. Toyota is bidding down labor here as well as in Japan. If they can crush wages in Japan you can bet, they will push for this here. And so non-Japanese companies will also do the same. And since the Chinese have cheap labor, these forces are very deflationary so the rise in raw materials will be eliminated via wages dropping.

From Nova Scotia:

If you happen to be a Halifax bank customer that uses its cash machine located in Old Broad Street in the City of London, you may have noticed an interesting new card services option. Machine users can now withdraw their money in euros and US dollars as easily as they can in sterling. Indeed, Halifax has become the first High Street bank to offer a so called multi currency cash dispenser, and has plans for three more ATMs offering the service in the capital

This means one can play currency games on a daily basis using these machines? How interesting. This is the final stages of monetarism: it is getting harder and harder to keep out wild fluctuations and deformities from creating bubbles and crashes. If everyone can play daily currency games, everyone will end up using the same tactics simultaneously and things will go totally out of control. This level of daily fluctuations of stability were exploited for years by professionals but now are being used by vast armies of people. This means the central banks have to be very ham-fisted when they try to change direction of currency values, etc.

From the Guardian:

Trade in global currency markets has soared over the past three years and is now worth more than $3.2 trillion a day - roughly equal to the annual output of Germany, the world's third largest economy.

Daily turnover has jumped by a hefty 71% from $1.9 trillion in 2004, fuelled by high activity from hedge funds and "black box" computer trading, the Bank for International Settlements said yesterday in a survey it conducts every three years.

Isn't it amazing? This utterly useless and totally destructive form of pure speculation is taking over everything and it is getting worse and worse, rapidly. Indeed, it is following the same track of all wild speculatory schemes. The Tulip bulb mania, the South Sea Bubble, the Mississippi Bonds, etc. are all earlier versions of this sort of wild 'magic money making' schemes. Aside from the absurdity of a monetary speculatory system being bigger than the world's #4 industrial economy, the amount traded each day happens to be nearly the same as the FOREX reserves of China, Japan, Russia and Europe.

The fact that this stupid FOREX trade has grown over 23% in the last three years is BAD NEWS. The rise in trade coincided with the Federal Reserve dropping interest rates to 1%. There are so many things that sprang out of that hideous attempt at ending a recession while starting a major war.... it takes the breath away. Back then, we wondered why Bush and Greenspan told everyone to literally 'go shopping' when they also were agitating for a war right in the middle of where oil is pumped! This irresponsible action by the world's #1 economy is still wrecking world banking and economic systems!

It is forcing the Fed to try to create a depression because this is the ONLY way to pay for those lower-rate loans. All the holders of bonds and certificates issued for two years at 1%-2% rates must be honored. If they are getting 2% interest on payments coming in when inflation is 5%, this wrecks the holders of these bonds, badly. So they want low rates...that are real, not illusionary. The destabilized situation that is causing the dollar to drop in value as the Fed is FORCED to drop rates is what I call 'Horns of Dilemma' and there are several here that are locking their horns with each other! This can't be resolved easily. Killing the wild monetary speculation going on right now across the planet is nearly impossible for the US except by declaring bankruptcy.

This will cause the world FOREX system to collapse but it is probably the only way to kill the speculative bubble that has now gone out of control and is threatening world trade as well as many industrial systems.

From the Australian:

It hits a new low against the euro seemingly daily and - horror of horrors for those who view their native currency as some sort of test of national virility - it's at parity with the Canadian buck.

That perspective, however, is not a common one. For Americans who don't travel abroad the exchange rate is a far less visible economic signal than in Australia. The scale of the US economy means its traded sector is relatively smaller than that of other rich countries, and the US media rarely focuses on the greenback.

The Federal Reserve's surprisingly large cut in short-term US rates may be changing all that since it seems to have reacquainted many investors with both the relations between currencies and interest rate differentials, and the risks involved in acquiring US dollar assets at this delicate point in the cycle.

Wavering confidence on the part of inward investors is the last thing the US needs, given a 2007 current account deficit forecast at about $US850 billion ($984.44 billion), or 6.5 per cent of GDP.

According to this article, the dollar's trade weighted value has dropped an astonishing 30% in just 6 years. This is 5% a year which reflects what I think is the real rate of inflation. So during the 1% year, we really had 5% inflation.

If there was a large and disorderly fall in the greenback's value, how damaging would it be? This was the real point of Krugman's 2006 paper and on that question his answer was guarded but more positive - it is highly improbable that the US would fall apart in the way Argentina did.

The world's biggest empire isn't Argentina. We are Russia. And what happened when Russia went bankrupt? The empire collapsed, didn't it? The military retreat started in East Germany with West Germany paying Russia to remove the troops turned into a rout as Russia was forced rapidly to leave all of the Warsaw Pact nations and then Russia itself began to disintigrate and this became increasingly violent ending up with the very vicious civil war in Chechnya. So unlike Argentina, the US will be a very nasty collapse, not a nice one as so many people wish to imagine.

A general rule of thumb is, when big empires go bankrupt or quasi-bankrupt, the world erupts into war since everyone lunges at the dying empire like a pack of wolves taking down a huge bison that is injured and can't turn and fight back.

Nobody knows what is the collective mindset of the investors who finance the US external deficit, but it's clearly more uncertain than a year ago, and since so many of the important players are sovereign or quasi-sovereign investors, there will be more intrigues like last week's alleged diversification out of US assets by Saudi Arabia.

And again, note how the world is madly speculating about the secret Saudi meeting. This is barely mentioned here and I got wind of it from a FOREX blog! This is part of the business of keeping Americans asleep as the drivers of our economic car continues to drive off the road and towards the cliff ahead.

From the NYT:

The administration showed its cards on Wednesday when it asked Congress for an additional $42.3 billion in “emergency” funding for Iraq and Afghanistan. This comes on top of the original 2008 spending request, which was made before Mr. Bush announced his so-called “new strategy” of partial withdrawal. It would bring the 2008 war bill to nearly $190 billion, the largest single-year total for the wars and an increase of 15 percent from 2007.

And here are a few more facts to put the voracious war machine in context: By year’s end, the cost for both conflicts since Sept. 11, 2001, is projected to reach more than $800 billion. Iraq alone has cost the United States more in inflation-adjusted dollars than the Gulf War and the Korean War and will probably surpass the Vietnam War by the end of next year, according to the nonpartisan Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

It is official: our spending on this stupid war is now a Major War and will have the same dire effects that the Gulf War I and the Korean War had: they both hammered our economy when they ended and the inflationary military spending collapsed. And the end of the Vietnam war was particularly messy: it caused inflation and depression at the same time, a very difficult situation. Which is what many of us see in our future due to this stupid war.

From Bloomberg:

General Dynamics Corp., the worst performing stock among the five largest U.S. defense companies, may outpace competitors such as Raytheon Co. and Northrop Grumman Corp. as investors gain confidence that a U.S. pullout from Iraq won't hurt profit at the Army's biggest supplier of combat gear.

U.S. troops in Iraq might need General Dynamics' armored vehicles and tanks for years to come, while allies are preparing to step up purchases to modernize their own militaries, said Erik Becker, co-manager of the Waddell & Reed Advisors Core Investment fund, based in Overland Park, Kansas.

``The U.S. military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan will continue for longer than people expect,'' said Becker, who oversees $5.5 billion.

General Dynamics is happy they will see greater profits. They need this war to make money and like the previous wars, will beg our government to continue spending in this war. As I tried to show yesterday, military adventures create inflation and the sense of wealth but this always has to be paid for by depression once the wars end or in the case of Vietnam, the depression happens even as the war inflation continues. Which is why our government debts matter: we can't keep setting up our system to ape the Vietnam war forever. This is bankrupting our nation and destroying our industrial base.

And no, we can't FOREX trade our way out of this mess. This is why I keep saying, 'The Federal Reserve that HAS VIRTUALLY NO RESERVES...' all the time. We don't have the FOREX reserves to play this game anymore. This is also why the main players are all speculators using Queen Elizabeth II's off shore tax havens. They can still do this with impunity. Buy Bernanke and the US government can't.

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Comments

[H with the reindeers]

Don't you ever stop blogging Elaine !
The footprints of your writing is all over the charts.

/H

[ArdVan]

Yeah, if the collapse is here, the US army will be the only "employer" left. No draft necessary. And because there has to be a scapegoat for all that mess it will be all those who didn't help the US in Iraq, say Europe, Russia, China, Iran. WWIII? I already read a blog about some banking guy who thinks it will be save in South America.

[EMPEROR TED]

NOT SOUTH AMERICA...........TRY COSTA RICA!.....:)

[Canuck]

“This means one can play currency games on a daily basis using these machines?”

Better get a handle on the transaction fees for these denominational services, they’re unlikely to any better than an airport. This will only work if the machine offers a margin against a cash transaction at retail till price. Retailers will wise to it and close the margin negating all but unawares. Kinda like airport calling card dispensers. Post transaction regret methinks.

Reminds me of standing behind an AMERICAN at a liquor store a few years ago. Huge RV with Grand Cherokee limited dingy towed behind, obviously driving to Alaska to prove his virility. He was bitching to the teller about that damn colored money he couldn’t get used to. The teller and I shared an extended rolling eye moment.

Cursing and mumbling about insensitive obtuse a__wipes back to my truck… the alcohol helped actually!

“West Germany paying Russia to remove the troops turned into a rout as Russia was forced rapidly to leave all of the Warsaw Pact nations and then Russia itself began to disintigrate and this became increasingly violent ending up with the very vicious civil war in Chechnya.”

Yes but a choice was made, USSR could still have held out for an extended period of time beggaring their population further, they didn’t. Chechnya was where they drew the line mostly for historical reasons they most certainly were not going to allow a Muslim leaning popular political with a more efficient underground (black) economy be entrenched on the back porch.

[tutterfrut]

China's $200 Billion Sovereign Fund Begins Operations (Update1)

By Belinda Cao

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- China Investment Corp., the nation's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, starts operations today as the government seeks to boost returns on the world's biggest foreign-exchange reserves.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGy8fzTT25.w&refer=home

Will China buy some strategic US holdings with US debt?

[Neuro Artist]

I have seen these ads on many webpages, only the last month, where they attempt to get Joe sixpack to play on the forex-market fluctuations, might be a good time to avoid holding any fiat-currency, at all.

Me thinks small bags of coffee, silver, dry foods, food cans, petrol, cocoa, cigarettes, toiletpaper, livestock, will be very valuable in a close future, compared to anything that is related to fiat-papers. Also sell, flatscreen TVs, cars, and your apartment if it doesn't have access to land that can be farmed.

[teddy]

Canuck, when all those US tourists don't arrive, and all those manufacturing plants around Toronto close, what then? And who ya gonna call when Russia claims all the natural resources in the artic all the way to the Canadian coast, and China buys ups all your oil and wheat lands with their 1.4 trillion in forex reserves launching the loonie to looney tunes? Ghostbusters?

[Canuck]

Let’s address this:

Tourism is a fickle industry it does not make a country, in particular it doesn’t make Canada. We are still a resource based economy despite continuous efforts and rhetoric by governments in the name of diversification. A tourism collapse is survivable. Toronto this Toronto that, oh poor Ontario manufacturing, guess what, out west that’s just a bunch of noise. You know Americans got their foothold in the Canadian energy scene because TORONTO based financial mandarins refused to participate. And why did this happen? Because they couldn’t CONTROL the resources. During the depression Albertans were in fact starving in the south of the province and in the Peace River country, Aberhart pleaded his case for interest relief on bonds from TORONTO based financiers. They retorted “We will have our interest”. Poor Toronto, poor Ontario, Boo Frickin Hoo.

Who ya gonna call:? I presume your talking about the US military. My position on the US military support for Canada is tough shit, do your duty, otherwise take off. I’ve seen the new forward operating locations in the arctic for military combat aviation support. I know these are NORAD sites not Canadian. During 9/11 American F15’s escorted a Korean airliner with a malfunctioning sqwak to land at Yellowknife, a real proud moment in cooperation I suppose. Through NORAD and NORTHCOM the US military is a hair trigger away from operations on Canadian soil. My personal perspective is no thanks. If that means that a certain amount of Canadian productive capacity is applied toward defense, so be it.

The Russians can claim all they want, actually accessing and making these arctic resources viable is altogether another matter. I’ve spent a lot of time in the arctic in fact I’m heading up on Monday. It’s an awful, brutal, hostile place. Tourists love it, I don’t. Yes the twilight of the midnight sun makes for some beautiful colors. You’ve got to contrast that with how long you’re going to be waiting for support if something goes wrong 4-5 hours flying out onto the permanent ice pack. I’ll admit it makes for great outdoor adventure TV, I’ve met many an idiot venturing up there. It has its own season, we call it the silly season, they start their logistic support efforts around March. Lets be clear, the amount of energy utilized to support Arctic operations is extreme. If there isn’t a nearby tank farm for your operation you are looking at caching fuel by drum typically flown in by twin otter. This includes all military operations as well. If a vehicle doesn’t have heated shelter the engine cannot be shut off in the High Arctic, tires can shatter from the cold. Look, I was out on the Beaufort Sea doing tech support on exploratory drilling in the late 80’s, there’s proven reserves out there. Guess what, the Mackenzie and Alaska pipelines are both on hold primarily due to costs, this isn’t even in the High Arctic and the costs are too high! High Arctic resource development is simply not economically viable. Until you hear that the Russians are initiating a new fleet of nuclear powered Polar 8 class icebreakers it’s all a bunch of bluster.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_8

China can buy all the Canadian energy they want, fine with me. I’m afraid you don’t really know how Canadian resources are organized. In Canada individuals and corporations cannot own subsurface resources. The crown owns all. The provinces control the resources within their jurisdictions and the revenue streams associated with any development. Canadian resources are licensed out for development first by lease development allotments then upon extraction of the resource royalties are paid to the province. Taxes are paid on in place equipment. The agreements are with the crown represented by the province for the benefit of that particular provincial population. If the Chinese want to come in and bid for development against the multinationals, let’r rip.

Buying up wheat lands, nobody is doing this. Nobody is thinking of doing this. Land means nothing without productive capacity to exploit the capability of the land. Just how are the Chinese going to accomplish this under the nose of the crown? The fact is that Canadians have very little in the way property rights, if you don’t adhere to the legal construct of land ownership as dictated by the crown ownership reverts to the crown, period.

[DeVaul]

It is the same here in the US, even though everyone likes to think otherwise. All land, and everything under it, is owned primarily by the state. This is the law.

If you do not pay your annual tribute/taxes/donations/fees/whatever to the state, then your land reverts to the state. I have talked about this before.

For example, if someone dies without heirs or creditors, their land escheats to the state. Why so? Why would it not simply become free land ready to be settled by pioneers?

Because the state is the ultimate owner of all land, and if no one can be found to hold the estate in fief to the state, then it reverts directly to the state.

[DeVaul]

Also, I too am not worried about Russia's claim to the artic pole. Let them drop a rig at the bottom of the sea there. They can kiss their oil exports good-bye while they try to keep themselves alive down there in the pitch black darkness.

Same with China, Japan, and Russia going to the moon to look for resouces. Good luck with that. We were lucky enough just to get a couple of guys on the moon to hop around a bit in the dust and then back again all in one piece.

There is simply not enough oil left for intersteller space travel. We have reached Peak Oil and we blew our chance to achieve this goal, assuming it was ever possible. Any attempt now to create space travel is just sheer desperation on the part of the rich who know the earth is over populated and no longer under their complete control.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

Several things here, and thanks for all the input especially from Canuck.

One: Russia doesn't want to invade Canada, they want to TRIANGULATE with Canada! They need Canada as a friend and a counterbalance to the US and CHINA. They don't want China too strong. And they don't want a strong US so this means making kissy-kissy sounds to Canada.

The conquest of the pole was aimed at the US, not Canada. Canada will negotiate with Russia, the US will fight Russia over this.

Further: Canada's farmlands are very valuble...in the future. I see a lot of Chinese immigration in the future to grow food there, it is very rich land, very rich. Right now, not needed enough for Canada to open its borders to the Chinese.

This is how we colonized the Midwest: European peasants poured in. So it will be with Canada when food becomes more valuable. It is rising in value even as I write.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

Owning land: my very own ancestors had this thing about owning land and kings. Namely, they wanted to be King of their Castles as in the old times after the Norman Invasions.

So, in the Northeast, they wrote laws: you buy the land, you own ALL OF IT TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH!!!

HAHAHA! This innovation was specific to New York and a few other places. I can dig down to the center of the earth, if I wish, and it is legally all mine!

But the laws passed later prevented this. In the West, no one owns more than 6" down! If you dig a basement, the government owns the basement! GAH. I lost homes to the government in Arizona. Won't lose it here!

If someone finds mineral wealth under your house in Arizona, they can DIG IT UP right out from under! So...I am grateful my ancestors were so particular about sovereignty. I am the Queen of my Mountain. For real.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

By the way, being full of foresight, my ancestors also decreed, if you own land, you also own the air above. They didn't specify how far. So I complain when people fly too low. Seriously, I lodge complaints. This can tick me off, even.

In NY, airports have to deal with this. The government specified a certain height for complaints which is too low as far as I am concerned. Heh. Even so, twice, the military violated my airspace. Got me really riled up, too.

[teddy]

Canuck, your posts have always reeked of nationalism. There is a Canadian blogger formerly out of Toronto who is now in the pirates of the Caribbean area doing likewise. And if you read his posts, you'd think he was a genius because he blocks most negative posts, but if one gets thru, he attacks the blogger before deleting the post and blocking further posts. His prognostications are almost always wrong, not only about the markets, but even the weather. After declaring himself an expert meterologist, he told the people in the gulf area right before hurricane Katrina that they should stay put because it was a hoax to jack up oil prices, then never apologized or acknowledged his mistake,and went on with his act of Canadian supremacy and his omniscience. Frankly, real estate in Vancouver is in bubble territory with median price of homes at 10 times income and eastern Canada is a basket case. Have likewise heard stories from US tourists about shabby treatment by their Canadian "hosts".

[Canuck]

Actually I’m too narrow minded to be a nationalist, I’m a regionalist. I’ve made the argument before Canada barely deserves to be a country on account of it’s historical and current method of governance. Power has been tightly held by Central Canada power brokers to the detriment of the country in total and I do mean in total. Although there is evidence of moderate sharing of this influence with the rest of the country I don’t believe that there is any constructive difference with historical governance precepts.

Canada break up, Quebec leave, Alberta separate? no tears from me. Tomorrow would be OK.

But I will admit to a chip on my shoulder. Central Canada toward Western Canada in by extension most of industrialized powerhouse nations take a patronizing attitude toward Canada. I don’t make any bones about my defiance of this. If it comes off as aggressive in this venue so be it. Frankly I’m sick of the supplication and I think Canada should stand up for itself and quit hiding behind the American skirt. That includes getting the hell out of Afganistan and concentrate on building Canada instead of making the world a better place through the barrel of a gun in some godforsaken hell hole.

I’m as conciliatory and pleasant as you like in person meeting anyone from the US or elsewhere. If your going to roll into town and act like an asshole, I’ll call you on it. Perhaps this shabby treatment you allude is the result of brushing up against too many of your arrogant brethren. I’m not going to play out the deferential Canadian script, it would seem less people are inclined to as well.

As for this Canadian blogger swine you refer to, Canada hardly has a lock on the jerk supply. If you want to color us so by extension, good for you. Have a nice day!

[teddy]

Actually Canuck, I, as most Americans, like the people of Canada. They are good, hard working, moral people for the most part, and I never intended, as you implied, to color them that way based on a few bastards and bitches. If ever necessary, I think the people of the US would come to the aid in any small way they could for our friends up north. However, Canada does not need Putin as a friend. He has a sour puss on his face at all times now. And this is the same idiot that threatened to cut off gas lines to Europe last winter unless he got higher prices. Nationalism and hate for the US is rising dramatically in Russia. As far as China, they have just humongous problems, what with inflation of over 10% which is much higher than the increase in wages of the bottom half of their population in a country where nepotism thrives. They have just huge food inflation. The water levels in their aquifers are dropping unbelievably fast. They have polluted their rivers, streams, lakes, and air in their quest for industrial dominance. China's precious and unsustainable arable land with this industrialization is dropping dramatically. They will not be able to feed their people nor will they have adequate water supplies. With forex reserves of 1.4 trillion dollars, they could buy, if it was contiguous and available, a swath of the best farmland in the US, 1000 miles by 500 miles. China will have to look outside their country to feed its people, and worldwide food inflation is readily apparent to everyone.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

Argh! Everyone should try to be patriotic. The nations that stick together do better than those that break apart. I am a Federalist and this means, we have a central government that works and we pay our taxes and build our joint defense and we are nice to each other and treat ourselves with courtesy.

I see a lot of the earth breaking down badly while other parts are reformulating themselves as empires. This is tremendously interesting to me. The US for years was taught to hate New York, for example and love Texas.

But New York always does the right thing, more or less while when Texans rule, we go to hell in a fiscal hand basket and we lose wars. Since I have lived in Texas and New York and several countries and several states including Kansas, Wisconsin, north and south California, New Mexico, Washington State, Arizona, New Jersey, etc.

I have a fascination about all the parts and how they interact. And this is how everyone should broaden their horizons: travel is good for the soul if you go in hoping to be part of the new place.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

About Putin and negotiations: Canada needs to triangulate as badly as Russia and for the same reasons. Splitting things like the Arctic is good for diplomacy. The US will change rapidly from friend to exploiter if Canada has no countervailing alliances. Trust me on this.

This will keep the US in line and force us to be more civilized. Otherwise we will throw our weight around.

Water: OH MY GOD!!! Go check out the water situation in the western half of the US! Canada has lots of water and we will want it. We are sucking up zillions of gallons of Ice Age water. When I was a child in Tucson, the Tanque Verde and the Santa Rita rivers ran.

They are now bone dry. A well my great grandpa had in 1890 was only 40 feet deep. My parent's well was 150 feet deep and today, it is nearly impossible to find the water table!

This is true throughout the West. Very much so. Agriculture in Arizona is far smaller today than in my youth.

[teddy]

All dressed up and no place to go. Elaine, that's what Communist China is facing. Imagine all those people not being able to feed themselves. What a mess!

[DeVaul]

Teddy, you just described the US also.

Of course, we may be better dressed up, but our water is almost gone also. This is an uncontroverted fact as far as the west is concerned. What a mess!

[Neuro Artist]

"With forex reserves of 1.4 trillion dollars, they could buy, if it was contiguous and available, a swath of the best farmland in the US, 1000 miles by 500 miles. "

Well they better hurry up, pretty soon a trillion dollars might not buy more than a Ford Taunus in need of an oil-change. The area you describe (half a million square miles) is larger than Scandinavia (Sweden, Norway and Denmark).

Of course the chinese should get North America, after all didn't god promise the choosen people (Han) this holy land!

I see a more physical role for the federal reserve in the future, it will be the arid areas where the caucasians will be allowed to settle. Maybe out of pure generosity and kindness they'll give the Americans the lead-paint manufacturing monopoly, so that you can support yourself.

[teddy]

Nuero, I've been saying for the last 5 years that there's just too many people "coexisting" on this planet and competing for the mere necessities of life, all part of the global warming and global economy syndrome. And now comes greedy Communist China just pushing the envelope with their monstrous building, polluting, and draining of the world's bare bones minimum surplus of natural resources. And maybe if the Chinese ask for our pork, which is in critical shortage over there along with so many grains and meats, we should sprinkle a little of that infamous Chinese supplement melamine on the pork for added flavor before delivery. All those people and pets who suffered horrific deaths worldwide would feel somewhat appeased. In the meantime, let them nibble on their cheap trick toys and subprime paper in anticipation of delivery. Do you think they can will be able to sell some of that subprime waste at any price to buy the pork? And btw, inflation is a worldwide problem, but it is worse in China than in the US.

[Neuro Artist]

Teddy,

I think actually more people could co-exist peacefully on earth if we didn't let greed and fear determine our actions to such a degree. Our thinking is really the issue. With limited thinking you will have limited resources.

For instance modern farming uses 10 calories of energy for every cal. of food produced. For every pound of food produced, it depletes 5-6 pounds of earth, and more than one acre is required to feed one person, further this type of farming uses huge ammount of water. Contrast this with the ancient type of micro-farming that where used extensively in china previously (prior to the "great leap forward"). These where gardens of extreme bio-diversity, where less than 1/10th of an acre produced enough food to support a person, where soil was improved not depleted, and the food was full of nutrients, and no energy apart from the suns rays and body work were added, and the amount of water required was the rainfall. Someone has calculated that the area covered by lawns in USA would be sufficient to feed the entire US population with this type of farming. Imagine not having to own a car to go to work to put food (with low nutritious value) on your table. Imagine not having to go to war to steal the oil, that is required for farming, and cars. Imagine not depleting the earths resources for material benefits, that actually are more of a burden if you view what is required to have them. Imagine the potential in people who are owning their own selfsustaining property without the stress of debt.

I think it is possible, but unfortunately the current way of thinking has to run its course, before it is rejected for a more balanced and harmonious way of life.

[DeVaul]

"And now comes greedy Communist China just pushing the envelope with their monstrous building, polluting, and draining of the world's bare bones minimum surplus of natural resources."

Once again, you just described the USA for the past 100 years to a tee and yet you have the gall to point your finger at others. Who is the true "nationalist" here?

Your complete ignorance of American history takes my breath away.

As for me, I do believe that China is making a huge mistake in following in our own footsteps, but that seems to be the way all humans behave. Give a country the opportunity to become an empire, and they will grab it with lightening speed. All others, including the earth, be damned.

[teddy]

DeVaul, please, nothing but all the facts.It takes two to tango. And you're a nationalist for calling me a nationalist. Ignorance is bliss...........for you!

[DeVaul]

Yes, "nothing but all the facts", as I tried to point out to you... but, whatever.

As for the nationalist thing, I was questioning your rationale for calling Cannuck a nationalist and not myself, but again... whatever.

Where is Smith when you need him?

[teddy]

DeVaul, Elaine is screaming about saving the sovereignty of the US. And China is building the equivalent of the city of Houston, Texas every month, doing in 5 years what took the US 100 years to do. And China knows full well what it is doing to their own and the world's environment given the latest knowledge in environmental science. Now here comes DeVaul and I have no idea wtf your point is. There is no logic in your "discussion", in fact, it's complete insanity.

[DeVaul]

Okaaaaayyy....

I think you know full well that New York City (100 years ago, and perhaps now) was just as bad as anything that now exists in China today: cruel sweatshops, inhuman living conditions, sewage and garbage in the streets, etc. etc. all photographed and recorded in writing at the time -- i.e. "facts".

This included Chicago, Pittsburgh and a host of other American cities that were industrializing just as fast as China is today. Again: "facts".

Now, my problem with you, as I pointed out above by quoting you, is that you think only the Chinese have ever done this and only the Chinese ever knew about environmental destruction. That is nonsense.

New Yorkers around 1900 could barely breathe in the city because of coal dust, dried horse manure, and the acrid fumes of the Standard Oil Company out on Hunter's Point blowing through the city 24/7. It was a nightmare, and the newspapers of the time described it as such. Again: facts!

And what about today? The Chinese do not drive SUV's nor do they consume 25% of the world's resources. You seem to imply that 5% of the world's population (the US) has this right but one billion people over in China must make do with just 10% or less. Huh?

I believe you most certainly do know what I am talking about, but like anyone on CNN, you simply dismiss my points as being "insane" without showing why.

Here's another point for you to consider: perhaps you and other Americans should first clean up your own act, like stop using "monstrous" oil guzzling armoured halftracks to cart your fat asses from your air conditioned offices to your granite countertopped McMansions before you start complaining about the "greedy Chinese".

Hypocrisy and double standards are just evil.

[teddy]

DeVaul, whatever meds you're on, they ain't working!

[DeVaul]

"And btw, inflation is a worldwide problem, but it is worse in China than in the US."

Then you must be in China because your ego just forced everyone off this page.

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

Whoa, wait! Everyone, we are all on the same boat here! Planet earth!

I have lived all over the earth. I remember when one couldn't read a street sign in Pittsburgh unless you got out of the car and wiped off the street signs! Black with soot, that place was!

I remember the Rhine when it was a filthy toxic mess! i swam it in that condition and it began to eat away my dress (Twas fleeing the border patrols on my quest to go from one revolution to another in 1968! hahaha!). I remember when Baja California has NO ROADS and my parents went into Sikkim and Tibet by walking or riding yaks when there were no roads there, either! And I remember so many things.... the industrial revolution has hit China with a vengence but it is NO DIFFERENT from here or England or Germany. Drat it.

Even in my own lifetime.

It seems inevitable that these things will happen. I remember Tucson when it was one million fewer people. It was a paradise to me but my grand daddy would say, 'Hell, there are too many damn burn easterners here now! We should send them back.'

Sigh. Then, he came to LA in California in 1880. From Tucson. And he saw that place 'Turn into a god damn dirty hell hole!' And my godmother sailed to LA in 1867. She rode a horse and buggy in California and the first train came after her arrival. All of Pasadena grew up around her farm! They paved over her house after she died....rats. I stood there, in the acidic rain, weeping for her and her glorious corner of eden that was filled with trees, wild birds, exotic plants and Victorian bric bracs.

All plowed under. 'Why, why do they do this?' I cried as I knelt in the rubble of her life.

And this is what Life is all about. Memories. We are all sinners.

[Neuro Artist]

Good points Elaine!

In Sweden in the seventies the rivers were so polluted, that you couldn't swim or eat the fish from the one running through my hometown, nowadays it has salmon.

I once walked into Tibet from Nepal, will not forget the taste of yak butter tea with salt (even though it is not called yak butter since the yak is the male animal, but I forgot what the female is called). Later in Lhasa I got what I thought was altitude sickness (lethargic), but it was pointed out to me that my eyes were yellow, and I had contracted hepatitis from drinking filthy water in south India 2 months prior. A few days later I hitched a ride with a chinese truckdriver to the north of china, remember waking up after sitting and sleeping in the truck being so cold, and it was ice on the inside of the windshield! The ride in itself was a nightmare, the truck was going empty (I guess Tibet doesn't export much to China proper), and the suspension was for a full load, and the road was more like a plowed frozen field, so I think I spent more time airborne than sitting down.

Memories...We still have much to learn, and teach...

[Good student]

I learned something new today:

When you are defeated in an argument of facts, accuse the other party of being on dope and when silent to show moral superiority. Great Tactic!

[teddy]

Good student, you better work hard to learn the facts before commenting because being ignorant or a moron is no excuse. Number 1, I don't watch CNN and wouldn't watch it if they paid me. Number 2, I don't drive a SUV. Number 3, I am not fat and live frugally, consuming less than my income and am debt free. Number 4, I don't live in a McMansion and neither do my 2 children who are also are debt free and magna cum laude college graduates. Number 5, DeVaul is confusing me with JSmith who has diametrically opposed views to mine. Number 6, if you would take the time to read my previous posts, you would see that I, like Elaine, are for maintaining US sovereignty by saving our industrial base (this is not nationalism for goodness sake), for our country to produce more and consume less to reduce our trade and current account deficits, and to stop polluting and to save our environment. Number 7, if DeVaul can't follow my argument and previous posts, then the lights are on, but noboby's home because I've posted my views for a long time here, I've tried to make them as basic as possible, and he is taking them out of context. Number 8, to rationalize what China is doing by saying that the US did it for 100 years, is no argument except for a Chinese nationalist. Number 9, I see that in the last couple of days, Japan's major food retailers have raised the price on over 130 food items in Japan in response to the worldwide food shortage. Number 10, who is going to feed all the people in the world if noboby, including China and the US, is taking steps to save our enviroment. And finally, if I have to go over all my past posts in order to "clarify" my position, it ain't gonna happen bacause I have better things to do.

[DeVaul]

I never rationalized what China is doing. I specifically said they were making a huge mistake by following in our footsteps. Read my post again. You basically libeled me, and you have done this several times now on this very page: I am on drugs (or forgot to take them), I am insane, I cannot distinguish between you and Smith, etc.

Cannuck "reeks" of nationalism, Good Student is "ignorant and a moron" for posting a short, concise statement. Where does it end?

It is you who cannot admit to being wrong or having made a mistake or even having wronged someone else in order to hammer home your own particular view of the world. In that way you are very much like the mainstream media, regardless of whether you watch them or not.

This forum is for discussion as well as give and take and yes we all disagree at times, but we keep our posts (most of us, that is) limited to pointing out facts and also flaws that we perceive in other people's views. They are free to elaborate or defend their views. I have done so many times, and not once have I called someone "insane" for disagreeing with me. Again, in this way, you are much like Smith, who thinks I am insane AND on meds (but I like to think he really doesn't mean that).

I did not come out of nowhere. I have been here for years now, and when I see something that I disagree with, I might be inclined to point that out.

Perhaps you can tone down your rhetoric to a more polite level, or perhaps those other things that demand your time would best be attended to now.

[DeVaul]

Oh, and one more thing. If you do not like having to clarify yourself or your statements, you had best not post here because you will often be asked to clarify all kinds of things you say. People are allowed to ask what you base your statements on, and they will. All the time. It is how we learn.

[Neuro Artist]

"Number 3, I am not fat and live frugally, consuming less than my income and am debt free."

-You Quissling traitor you! At this point you should be on multiple obesity prescription meds and go to disneyland and shop at McDonalds with your home improvement loan, to support American industry like a true patriot! How dare you!

Btw, you can accuse me of being insane. I'll take that as a compliment... ;)

[Elaine Meinel Supkis]

Devaul has been with me for years and years. As well as exchanging emails. Devaul, I see a clash here that shouldn't happen. Just give Canuck some room. He is a very nice person, we also exchange emails. Comments on the internet are VERY prone to misunderstandings. Namely, it is all too easy to become angry because of the way LANGUAGE works.

Most people are not professional scribes. I have deep training in the history of language and the use of language which is a great skill to have. Even so, I often say or write things improperly that agitate people totally unnecessarily and in ways I never intend.

The best solution for this is to say, 'It's OK! We are ON ThE SAME SIDE HERE. And we are different in some ways but the same in other ways.'

I really, really care about everyone here, even Smith! And Smith alarms me right now because he has lost his sense of humor. We used to talk a lot. I feel bad about this.

I enjoy even people who don't share my values. We must do this to stay sane.

Peace and love, everyone, Elaine

[DeVaul]

You are right, Elaine, as usual.

However, it was not Cannuck that I quarreled with, but with Teddy. Just wanted to correct that little typo.

I think the point I wanted to make is that while we all are in the same boat, we can disagree without calling each other insane.

I think you would agree with me on that (or not?) :)

[John]

Re: Smith. I'm not surprised that he's lost his sense of humour. I've lost a good deal of my own, thanks to the ginormous ineptitute of the fools currently in power. Since they were the ones whom I thought mirrored my own views fairly closely, the reality of them is alternately depressing and enraging. Furthermore, when I look at the (likely) alternative--the Democrats--I see even bigger ineptitude. What is there to have a sense of humour about these days, if one operates from the belief that problems can be solved? I know Ron Paul is a long shot, but to me he seems like the one shot we've got left. He won't be perfect, but he just might be real enough to drag us back from the brink.

I admit, I've been rather harsh toward Smith. I don't apologize; if I recall, he started it by implying that my disagreement with him makes me an idiot. This is classic BushCo/Hannity/MoveOn/Hillary procedure, to smugly assert that only mental deficiency keeps everyone in the world from agreeing with you.

I learned many years ago, dealing with leftists on message boards: when someone is determined to go there, either go with them or ignore them. Striving to maintain the "high ground" is mostly perceived as an excuse to cover up the fact that your argument is too weak to stand up to the assault. Sadly, the conservatives learned these "Clintonista" techniques all too well. At this point, I see no true difference of effect between the two parties. Both are equally destructive to society as a whole.

I seldom argue with someone to try to persuade them. Mostly, my focus is on others who will read the exchange. All I can do is call them like I see them and then sit back and let everyone else decide for themselves what rings with truth and what does not.