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Neuro Artist

That world debt table is a scary one. Looking at Sweden, and the rest of West Europe, many countries have a higher national debt/capita than the US, and the personal debts are probably not far behind having houses mortgaged over the chimneys, car loans, etc, and little savings (and those are put in the stock market). Interesting to see that there are no Eastern European countries on that list, will they support us as we crash or will they go back to the bossom of mother russia for safety and trade? I would think the later allthough it will be hard for them due to history. Maybe they'll remain neutral and create their own block?

Neuro Artist

I was just thinking about if there is a crash in the Shanghai Stock exchange with 2,5 trillion dollars of market capitalisation (not unlikely since it has gained some 400% in the last 2 years). How would the chinese use its foreign reserves in a thirty percent downturn of the stock market. Looking at stock indexes across the world this is the only one that have a bubbly appearance (with the exception of HK, who also have a market capitalisation of around 2,5 trillion $). No doubt the other markets are debtfueled overvalued, but they don't look like the classic bubble chart.

Here you can find the table of biggest market cap of stock exchanges:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges

Not Student

Shanghai Index is unlikely to crash since most of the hot money has been weeded out a few months ago. 400% rise is about right considering the pented up capital accumulated among the people for over 20 years of over 10% growth.

DeVaul

I am genuinely surprised that Sweden and some other countries (except England) have a higher debt/capita ratio than we do here in America. I am really surprised by this.

I know what we are buying (cheap plastic crap), but what are they buying?

Neuro Artist

I think the Swedish National debt is a result of an overly generous welfare system, most of the debt was accumulated in the 80's and 90's, the last 10 or so years the budget has been balanced. But I think a major reason why Sweden has been able to balance the budget the last years has been the housing bubble, creating jobs and therefore greater tax-collections. And since we don't spend these money on warfare we can balance the budget, for the time being at least. I would say that the housing bubble has financed the welfare state, and the Swedes are up over their ears in debt. A positive thing compared to the US is that we have a trade-surplus, but this would mean a disaster, for Sweden when the world turns toward protectionism due to debt defaults and currency collapses. Sweden will be in for an abrupt awakening, like many other west European countries.

Neuro Artist

We'll see, Not Student.

I bought some shares in the HK stock exchange in 1987 2 weeks prior to the massacre in Tianinmen square when the stock index dropped 30% on one day and 23% the day after, but my loss was small compared to the students, and I was more upset about that than the money.

Maybe the 400% increase in the last 2 years is motivated by fundamentals, but what happens if it continues up 50% from todays value in the next 2 months (as it tends to do when there has been a massive increase in a relatively short time due to fundamentals). Looking at the Shanghai Stock exchange chart it doesn't look like the vertical climb, before the crash, has started quite yet. And fundamentals can change quickly (imagine US defaulting on debt, oops! )

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Before Tianinmen Square, the Chinese government loved me. But after i beseiged them for over a month in front of the UN, once I forced (YES...TWISTED BUSH SR's ARM VERY HARD) the US to grant refugee status to all Chinese students demonstrating against the government of China, both in the US and any who could escape from China (we got several out of the country thanks to the wonderful people of Sweden and CANADA!) They hated my guts and still hate me with great fury.


But as for their stock markets: they will decline if ours crashes. But their decline will still have fewer bad side effects than ours: our crash will destory our entire economy, our currency will totally collapse and our navy will end up rusting at whatever ports they can steam to before they cease having fuel. Only the nuclear vessels will run and they will degenerate rapidly. Read about how swiftly Russia's powerful military machine rusted.

DeVaul

I see a not very pleasant paralel here between us and Germany before WWII. China is like us before WWII. They will be hurt badly, but they will survive. We will not. Like the Germans, we will go insane as everything we thought we knew disappears forever. This really concerns me.

When bubbles pop, the one that contains delusions pops the loudest.

Neuro Artist

"When bubbles pop, the one that contains delusions pops the loudest."
-True DeVaul, I may quote you on that in the future.

No doubt the Chinese will survive, probably better than any other country in the world when the US empire falls. However what I was thinking was, how would the Chinese powerholders react if the stockmarket falls rapidly in Shanghai (triggered by whatever reason), would they attempt to bring liquidity home, or how would they handle the situation? Would they be more of capitalists and let the stock market controll itself? I mean if they take the money home it would mean that the indebted nations will crash, no?

Well Elaine you may not have the love of the chinese regime, but you'll have my admiration for taking a stance.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The communist Chinese plan is for the US to fall into the abyss first. They are willing and indeed, expect to see their own rich go down with the US. Incredible?


Nope. This is how power works. The very rich are just as much a danger to rulers like those people running China as any revolutionary or coup. Indeed, more so.

The people getting rich off of China will be geese that will be plucked and eaten eventually.

Not Student

In the future I fully expect to see a crash in the world market. In China, it will be a controlled crash to further weed out certain unwanted elements.

THAT I am quite sure will happen.

I applaud your courage and effort to save the tiananmen students, Elaine, but it appeared to be wasteful as none of the student turned out to be a productive member of the society.

Humanitarian efforts sometime runs au contraire to the iron laws of mother nature, who dictate that all human must die, eventually.

Neuro Artist

Thank you Elaine and Not Student. What do you mean when you say that none of the students turned out to be a productive member of society?

No doubt the very rich is a threat to those that hold power (if they are not the same person). Just look at the US where the rich runs the "democracy show".

Wonders what their plan is for the rest of the world after they have beaten most in capitalism?

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The students from back then who were stranded in the US all ended up having very productive lives. They were all very smart, got degrees from Columbia, NY University, Rutgers, Harvard, Yale, etc.

Quite a few scientists were amoung them which is why the government of China wanted to ship them back home.


And what does China want? Easy: what we got when we won WWII.

Neuro Artist

World domination?

OC

No - all the wealth and natural resources...no need to dominate other races - right now they represent 1/4 of human race ... by making their nation strong and productive for next 20 years ...they will represent 1/2 or 3/4 of human race once they remove the cap of one child policy...so obvious isn't it...

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