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Bible & Koran: INTEREST BAD!!! Fed Reserve: INTEREST GOOD!! Idealism revved up: what if the greedmongers had worked all this time for the good of all instead of the few? Tech evolution tainted to the positive side of the "force". Perhaps homo sapiens are always gonna be ruled by those prominent canine teeth.



judging by this chart, you dont normally get the full amount or effect of subprime delinquencies till about 15 months after issuance, anyone agree????



judging by this chart, you dont normally get the full amount or effect of subprime delinquencies till about 15 months after issuance, anyone agree????

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The IMF had the Credit Suisse graph you refer to. I should republish it. Yes, without the slightest doubt, the real crunch will be from 2009 to 2011. There is no evading this mess.


TAIWAN : Industrial Bank's Hsueh said accelerating inflation may prompt Taiwan's central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate again in December. Governor Perng Fai-nan raised the rate for a 13th consecutive quarter to 3.25 percent on Sept. 20.

``The risk of potential inflation is rising,'' Perng said this week. An interest-rate increase ``will help market rates gradually approach a neutral level to prevent inflation.''

INDONESIA : Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia's central bank will probably keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a third month on concern inflation is climbing towards the higher end of this year's 5 percent to 7 percent target range.

and just for a laugh at the taser wielding criminals ........The U.S. will appeal directly to Myanmar's military government tomorrow to end attacks on peaceful protesters and move toward democracy


Good evening, Elaine.

Just as financial activity has an internal logic so does Empire. Just as human nature in crowds follows strict patterns, and must do so because humans are what they are and act as they do, empires follow an iron logic, unavoidably, uncontrollably except marginally, and generally tragically for most individuals. To talk of restraining Empire behavior is foolish. The question is, instead, what can, in fact, in practice, be accomplished.

The time for "Ron Paul" government is not yet, and when it comes the standard of living will be shockingly low by most standards.

The Empire will collapse, of course, empires invariably do, but not yet. People will push the "empire" bubble until it pops. Until then, group think increases, the "manufacture of (political) consent" increases, the the middle class decreases, savings and investment deteriorate in quantity and quality, and waste and foolishness generally become even more ridiculously extravagant.

Unfortunately we are, will not, be able to "bell the cat" before concrete reality intrudes into human dreamworlds.


Subprime Delinquencies Accelerating, Moody's Says (Update3)

By Shannon D. Harrington and Mark Pittman

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Subprime mortgage bonds created in the first half of 2007 contain loans that are going delinquent at the fastest rate ever, according to Moody's Investors Service.

The average rate of ``serious loan delinquencies'' in the securities has been higher than 2006 bonds, New York-based Moody's analysts Ariel Weil and Amita Shrivastava wrote in a report today. Serious loan delinquencies are those 60 days or more past due, including properties in foreclosure or already foreclosed upon.

``It is shocking what you see,'' said Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors LP, a Dallas-based hedge fund that reported a 400 percent return on its bet the U.S. housing market would fall. ``Anything securitized in 2007 has got to have the worst collateral performance of any trust I've seen in my life.''

Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings have been downgrading subprime securities issued in 2006 as defaults on the underlying loans rise to record highs. Fitch said yesterday it's now reviewing ratings on bonds created in 2007.

Moody's has cut ratings or placed on review 496 bonds backed by first mortgages issued last year, or 3 percent of such bonds created in 2006. Through Sept. 21, S&P had cut ratings on 433 securities from last year and backed by subprime loans, or 9.1 percent of the total. Fitch yesterday cut ratings on $18.4 billion of bonds backed by subprime loans.

Moody's said 6.6 percent of the loans in bonds issued in the first half were seriously delinquent four months after their securitization. The rate was 4.2 percent after four months for bonds created last year, and was 4.5 percent for 2001 bonds.

``We see this as a continuation of the trend we had in 2006,'' David Teicher, a Moody's managing director, said in a telephone interview. ``We're studying it, looking at the vintage carefully, as we are with all of the other vintages.''

Worst Year Ever

The Moody's report today compares with research from S&P in March that said 2006 bonds may be the worst-performing ever.

For bonds older than six months, 2006 was the worst year for serious delinquencies since at least 2000, Moody's said in the report. Data in the Moody's report suggests that accelerating delinquencies from 2007 bonds are likely to eclipse 2006.

Many of the loans that investors shunned in 2006 were able to be successfully securitized in 2007 because of the limited availability of new loans to purchase, according to Andrew Chow, who manages about $7 billion in asset-backed bonds and mortgage securities at SCM Advisors LLC in San Francisco.

``It's not surprising that the performance of that type of loan is in fact even worse than the average of 2006 because these are the loans that were rejected from those deals,'' Chow said.

ABX Indexes

Subprime mortgages are given to borrowers with poor credit or high debt. The rise in loan defaults and foreclosure followed a period of lax lending standards by the banks making the loans and little due diligence by investors buying the repackaged debt.

The perceived risk of owning subprime mortgage bonds created in the first half of 2007 rose today, according to traders of ABX indexes of credit-default swaps.

The ABX index linked to 20 securities from the first half and given the lowest rating of BBB- fell 2.5 percent to 36.67, the lowest since the index began trading in July, according to, Markit Group Inc., the index administrator. The index rated AA, the second-highest rating, fell 0.93 percent to 87, London-based Markit's composite prices show.

ABX contracts allow investors to speculate on or hedge against the risk the underlying securities aren't repaid as expected.


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Elaine Meinel Supkis

Oh yes, the default rate of new mortgages is incredible. Never saw this in my long property owning life. I have seen people go bankrupt after owning a place too big for their purses...after 5-10 years!

But the flood of failures after 5-10 months?? Unheard of! And this is final proof that all those desperate mortgages were false. I once foolishly bought a mansion I could afford to buy...paid CASH...but couldn't afford to RUN. It required a huge staff to run. Not me. Full time job, keeping it polished and groomed.

So, after waiting 3 years, I sold it. Many people have bought McMansions little knowing that running these giants is hard, hard work and quite expensive. One person I knew was overjoyed at the size of his estate and the groomed hedges and lawns, etc. After one summer trying to keep it in order, he called me and said, 'I have to spend every weekend working as a yardkeeper!' I said, 'Sell.'

We have a madcap market out there where everyone's eyes are bigger than their purses. I know, I did this to myself in the past. What a mistake that was.

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