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Jean

Elaine,

One thing I do not get, if the Japanese are giving out so much in cheap loans, i.e. others are buying their currency to invest elsewhere at higher rates, wouldn't that push up the value of the Yen? This would increase demand of Yen?

tutterfrut

Jean,

They don't buy Yen. They borrow Yen, which they sell for buying other high yielding currencies.
If suddenly their high yield currency investments risk to turn sour or they have to repay their borrowed yen because of whatever reason, only THEN they have to buy Yen. In moments of carry trade unwinding you see immediate reaction in the value of the Yen, because all of a sudden they all start buying Yen, to repay the sold Yens they have borrowed.

jean

OK, I see the borrowing versus lending, but isn't borrowing still increasing demand for YEN? If everyone in the world knew about the carry trade, they would rush off to Japan and try to borrow at .5%. This would place the Yen in big demand, and raise it, wouldn't it? (Unless Japan printed unlimited currency)

Elaine Meinel Supkis

It would increase the value EXCEPT the interest rate on yen at home in Japan is very low. The only people on earth wanting to raise the value of the yen is someone who is competing with Japan for export markets. The export markets are the Holy Cow and Holy Grail in this monetary game. They will slit throats to gain market share. And China ate into Japan's market share by keeping their yuan cheap and letting it only creep upwards. This is why China has by far and away, the world's biggest FOREX reserves.

tutterfrut

Jean,

Everyone in the (investment)world knows the carry trade and yes it IS massive. But big demand for borrowing Yen to immediately exchange it in another currency does not inflate the Yen but gives rather downward pressure on the currency that nobody wants to hold longer than a click on a keyboard, because of its ridiculous low artificial interest rate and suppression of its possible intrinsic value by all vested interests and powers in play.

Teddy

Jean, the Bank of Japan creates yen out of thin air to lend to foreigners, especially hedge funds. So the foreigners accept that money that is loaned at 1% or less back to the nation they want to invest in. If it's in the US for example, the most common destination, they have to sell those yen they just borrowed to buy US dollars to make their investment. This depresses the yen and supports the US dollar. Now the Bank of Japan has to do something about all those yen they just created out of thin air, otherwise the yen will find their way back to Japan and cause inflation, so they float debt instruments like bonds to the Japanese citizenry to drain or sterilize all those newly created excess yen floating around. This is one of the reasons that Japanese debt to GDP ratio is rising exponentially. A lot of misinformed economists or those not wanting the public to know what's going on will look at that ratio and say Japan is in a depression. Yes, it's a depression in national consumption, but a boom in export growth. If there ever was a panic because the Bank of Japan raised interest rates at home to fight inflation, then you could see the reverse of the above described carry trade with the yen exploding up in value against the dollar causing a financial crisis because the hedge funds and other borrowers would not be able to pay back the loan in yen.

DeVaul

Wow, that's the best explanation of how the yen carry trade works that I have ever read, and I've read quite a few.

I always wondered what happened to the yen once it was exchanged for the other currency. It seemed to me like it would go back to Japan, just like all the economic gurus are saying will happen to our dollar IOU's once other governments stop "holding" them.

So, the Japanese government is buying and holding these newly created yen. Is that what is going on?

You said the public were being offered bonds, but I have read that Japanese are buying other currencies to get a better rate of return. Do they really buy these yen bonds that the Central Bank creates?

Is the real culprit -- the inflation sink for these yen -- is it the Japanese government itself. Is that the deal?

Teddy

DeVaul, in lieu of buying their domestic bonds with miniscule interest rates, the Japanese citizenry are also making direct investments in foreign countries by selling their savings in yen and buying the foreign currency to buy foreign debt instruments and this is a Johnny-come-lately event and a subset of the main and most stable form of the carry trade described above. They are assuming extreme risk if the carry trade ever reverses and would also represent a main force in the panic reversal.

jean

Thanks all for your explanations, it's much clearer now, and yes Teddy, that's a great explanation of how the carry trade works. So the low interest rate keeps the Yen low, which is why their export biz is so great, etc., etc.,

DeVaul

Ok, I understand that. I was wanting to know who was the main soaker-upper of all these yen coming back to Japan all these years.

Was it the citizens until recently before they starting betting in the forex markets? Or has it been the government mainly from the beginning?

I suspect the government because of their connections to the criminals running this system, but I honestly do not know. Or maybe the citizens were bamboozled and now realize it and are trying to get out.

Do you know which holds the most of these yen from the carry trade? That is, the citizens or the government? Just curious.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

TOYOTA TOYOTA TOYOTA!

Now you know the name of one of the 'soaker uppers' of any returning yen. Which are used to build more factories.. IN AMERICA.


The weird money flow is very complex. And not easily seen! Even more: China and Japan buy lots and lots and oodles of US bonds and this is how they get rid of more of this loose change, to the tune of, between both of them, one trillion dollars worth.


And then there is their FOREX reserves that explode with money at the rate of $100 billion a year for Japan in the last 8 years and China, over $300 billion a year in the last 5 years. NEITHER NATION HAS THIS MUCH IN TRADE PROFITS! This is pure speculation currency games being held by the biggest two banks on earth.

barbara hazleton

What else might cause the carry trade to unwind other than China waiting until after the Olympics ? Would it be war with Iran? Any other factors?

Elaine Meinel Supkis

The carry trade had a momentary hesitation due to the value of the yen rising vis a vis the dollar. Now it is back in force, the pre-July status quo is running...temporarily.


This is going to continue until next year but it can collapse due to anything since it is very fragile and quite expensive. Right now, the bank of Japan struggles to pretend there is no inflation. I track the rising tsunami of inflation there. The ONLY thing going down are wages there which leads me to think, the lives of the Japanese people are visibly deteriorating as this continues.

mckinnemon

Japan has a shrinking population. I think a lot of the economic numbers may not reflect this. Are there standard world wide economic benchmarks? I had a right-winger lecturing a group of use on: "how bad it was during the Carter years"..I casually noted "correct, but did you know what todays numbers would be if the 70's benchmarks were used..." Just a standard Fox newshound ;-)

mckinnemon

Japan has a shrinking population. I think a lot of the economic numbers may not reflect this. Are there standard world wide economic benchmarks? I had a right-winger lecturing a group of use on: "how bad it was during the Carter years"..I casually noted "correct, but did you know what todays numbers would be if the 70's benchmarks were used..." Just a standard Fox newshound ;-)

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Carter killed inflation. No one has ever forgiven him for that deed.

John

In these days of sub-prime loans and the housing market in such a downturn, many people are in danger of losing their homes. Many lenders issued adjustable loans that re-adjust periodically and many people may not have been aware of how much their payments could go up. Some of these people may now be in danger of foreclosure if they're unable to keep up with the payment increases.
http://www.thejohnbeck.tv

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