November 21, 2007
Elaine Meinel Supkis
The bear market is strengthening as we expected. The tricks used to keep the bulls from bolting have failed. The faith in future gains is losing ground as the subprime mess gains downward speed as any sane onlooker could see coming, long ago. This economic mess is like driving towards a train crossing and seeing the lights flashing and the black and white striped arms coming down and still, the Fed puts the pedal to the metal in the hopes of beating the train to the intersection. First, we visit Japan to see yet again, confirmation that Japan wants desperately to have a weak yen and how this affects us. And time to visit the CDO and CLO insurance groups that are now going bankrupt.
Dollar Falls As Carry Unwind Lifts Yen
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The dollar is mostly lower in Europe Wednesday as the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest minutes and economic forecasts published late Tuesday painted a more dovish picture than the market anticipated.
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Stocks: Nikkei Falls About 2.5%, Ends Below 15,000 For 1st Time In 16 MonthsTOKYO (Kyodo)--The key Nikkei stock index fell nearly 2.5 percent on Wednesday as the yen's rapid rise dragged down export-oriented issues in particular, with the index closing below the 15,000 threshold for the first time in 16 months.
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Everything causes the dollar to go down. But people who are no longer holding the dollar pay the slightest attention to trivial news like the Fed's foolish babbling. They have a new formula: sell dollars and hold euros and YEN. As I said last summer, starting in July, the flow of money in the world suddenly shifted significantly and in ways the Japanese most certainly did NOT want it to go. The flow of money matters a great deal. All levels of all markets are dynamic just like the weather and just as complex. And like the weather, one must look at the entire planet to judge what is going to happen next.
The sun is the major force that creates our weather. Its fluxing output and the number of sun spots has a direct effect on temperature and windspeed here on earth. The oceans are another great force at work on our weather. Then there is the jet stream and the tilt of the planet and the planet's wobble on its axis as well as the moon, all these things work with or against each other to make our weather. Then there is another element: chemistry, dust, pollution and oxygen producing life form outputs. All these determine the weather. Humans have a huge impact in this area and this is why global warming is an issue we should be very aware of for we are the chief instrument in disturbing the balance of nature.
Economics is very much like this. I go visit other web sites to read comments by readers to see where knowledge is missing and the US web sites are very much in the dark about complex international politics and economics. Just as the average US writer or blogger is virtually unable to see the dynamo that is driving world inflation EVEN AS THE US ECONOMY CONTRACTS, I marvel at this. It isn't accidental. The reason why Japan is so heavily cloaked from view is simple. The most powerful bankers and financiers all exploited this Nippon Dynamo to gain power and wealth. They became so secure and accustomed to this dynamic system that produced endless super-cheap loans, they even gave it a very funny name: the carry trade.
When I first saw that term being lightly bandied about as these guys chatted in public, little imagining outsiders would figure this out, I was intrigued and amused. After a lot of sweat and reading Japanese news very closely, I finally figured out what it meant. Then, right on the heels of explaining this process, the media suddenly began to sort of explain what it meant.
I assumed this 'carry trade' would be rapidly terminated by hostile sovereign nations like the US government or the Europeans. But the true dimensions of this odious trade became rapidly clearer and clearer to me. The investors and bankers who control public office and our systems WANT this to continue and are DESPERATE to have this carry trade continue and will MOVE HEAVEN AND EARTH to make it go on forever.
Never in the history of banking has 0% interest been allowed to exist except in one time frame: the Dark and Middle Ages when money nearly vanished and a tremendous depression drove nearly everyone into such poverty, even Kings and Emperors lived like peasants in Europe. Desperate lords even forbade the making of chairs in order to sustain some elevation in status over the poorest peasants. So they got to sit on chairs while everyone else squatted, stood or sat on benches.
Today, we see the entire world economic structure collapse because the Japanese carry trade is finally collapsing. This began in July. Before July, everyone in the know knew the housing market in the US was dead and they know all the nasty data about the subprime markets. Absolutely everyone saw the Bank Suisse chart clearly showing the resets would get worse and worse for at least 2 more years! But the world's financial system had only a slight burp from that news. In July, things suddenly collapsed. Since all the biggest players already had reacted to the previous bad news about US housing and simply pressed on with making bigger and bigger deals...in the stock markets and commercial real estate as well as playing even harder at the FX markets, trading money for money, I would suggest something else triggered the July banking collapse.
Back then, I noted China and Japan got into a huge fight over Japan joining the other G7 nations in condemning China's weak yuan. The outraged Chinese yelled about the carry trade and Japan's low yen. The Japanese laughed and in the Asian news, taunted China and said they had complete control over all the currencies of the world to the extent, they could easily drive the yen down to 130 to the dollar and the US and Europe would say nothing since this would increase the carry trade.
China said, 'Make my day.' and went to work, forcing the yen upwards. Even against the already dying dollar. Japan was forced to increase its FOREX reserves and hold more dollars but as I predicted, they couldn't do this faster than the US could export money in exchange for goods. The battle between China and Japan over this issue is increasing, not decreasing. The last two G meetings featured everyone yelling ONLY at China. At the last meeting, many nervous Europeans, suddenly figuring out this fight a tad too late, quietly demanded the US and Japan make both currencies stronger. Both the US and Japan swatted that aside so the official word was, everything is China's fault. So a Chinese economist went on TV and told all Chinese to sell dollars and buy YEN.
The yen is in trouble for when it gets strong against but the euro and the dollar, the carry trade vanishes. This is what is causing all the panic we are seeing. Economies can't 'grow' unless they can manufacture loans. And no loan is cheaper than a 0% loan or slightly above this. Japan's own inflation is taking off so they are strangling their economy in order to justify these 0% loans and this is strangling world trade. And so the world's #1 and #2 economies are both trying to kill their currencies and both are now contracting in their domestic markets while expanding their export markets and this is causing Europe to be the main destination of trade and forcing up the euro.
Rate cut is a 'real possibility' next month
In a speech only yesterday he warned that the credit crunch, which is resurfacing in money markets, could get worse in the coming months.The minutes revealed that some of the MPC members voted against a cut because it had not been widely expected by markets, saying: "since a reduction in Bank rate was not widely expected this month, there was a danger that an immediate cut would be misinterpreted".
This showed that the committee considered an immediate cut, though eventually ruled it out.
What is this 'credit crunch' anyway? Why can't banks simply loan money at 0.5% like Japan? Why can Japan ignore world inflation while everyone doing this carry trade with Japan is being hammered by this inflation? Why is the Bank of England afraid of being 'misinterpeted'? Obviously, they are afraid of a run on the banking system and a sell-off on stocks. So they use their various mirrors and tricks and wave wands and magically, reality vanishes and a false reality is conjured up. Was this ethical?
Of course not! All the central banks and the money men running things lie about open markets and bringing in more information and shedding light, etc. They know perfectly well, money, like sex, is best done in the dark. Then you don't see the old hag or the wrinkled pot bellies, etc. The magic of money systems operate best when no one is able to trace it or understand how it is generated. Just as England pretended to be moral and upright while looting the world, enslaving Africans, stealing gold, attacking India and China and selling illegal drugs as well as suppressing workers at home. All this was innocent fun and best ignored or better, patting themselves on the back when they finally stopped committing one crime or another.
It is obvious to me that the end of the carry trade is wrecking British banking. They can no longer service super-cheap loans. Yet they must drop interest rates which are going to replace the carry trade. This causes inflation to come home to roost. The US has already decided to imitate the Bank of Japan and interest rates are rapidly dropping here while inflation rages.
Bank of China reports 40% net profit from overseas operations
Bank of China (BOC), the nation's second largest lender, derives nearly 40 percent of its net profits from overseas operations, a senior executive said Wednesday.
*snip*
In the past year, BOC continued its worldwide expansion. One facet of this expansion was the 100 percent acquisition of Asia's largest aircraft leasing firm, SALE, which is part of the bank's diversification strategy, said Zhang.
The Chinese news proves my point: China's expansionist monetary actions are now driving markets in a new direction. Money, like water, tends to flow in a direction just as water cuts a channel that gets deeper and deeper, so it is with money itself. Money movers call this force 'liquidity' for good reason! In this case, everything is now set in the direction of weakening the dollar, strengthening the euro and yen and moving from China outwards rather than Japan outwards.
Japan is being forced by China to buy and hold yuan, not dollars. Only this makes the yen more expensive vis a vis dollars so this is classic chess checkmate situation. I see no change in Chinese determination on this matter and their stark warnings to France and Germany about diplomatic issues are definitely coupled with currency issues here. So long as the G7 continue hostilities against China on all levels, China will deepen this currency flow and millions of traders and hedge fund operators will cheerfully help.
Note this ad which Merrill Lynch is using hoping to fool investors into thinking our market will now go up and up and up. This is rather sad. It isn't going to do this. The financial jet stream is flowing along too powerfully to allow us to ignore things. The red ink which has penetrated all our systems cannot be ignored any longer. So long as we had access to 0.5% interest carry trade loans we could ignore all other systems running in the red.
One reason why China could redirect flow is due to this red ink. All it takes is one small change and the flow changes due to this one alteration. So long as China held dollars, all was well. Actually, China is BUYING in our markets yet they are declining. This is a sign that the carry trade was responsible for the major portion of US and English buying of stocks. Note that much of the stock hikes this last 7 years has been due to bidding up the stocks of businesses making or doing or threatening take overs. And these takeovers were funded by the carry trade.
More bad news from the world of structured finance.
Lancer Funding II - a $1bn CDO squared - has entered an “event of default”, making it the first CDO squared to hit the wall.CDO squared are, like the name suggests, CDOs of CDOs. A CDO squared defaulting then, is perhaps significant, since it acts as a litmus test for the broader CDO universe.
And Lancer is also part of a bigger grim picture at ACA Capital, its management company. They reported their Q3s on Monday and joined the banking big-league with a $1.7bn writedown. ACA are a big manager of CDOs and also a leading provider of CDO default insurance policies - which strikes us a pretty shortsighted combination.
A number of economic bloggers are all discussing this without mentioning global financial and trade conditions. We need to tie everything together just like with weather satellites tracking hurricanes. In this case, the whole business of CDOs and other paper products based on loans, are not only failing but all systems that have either created them, sold them, sell them or insure them, are also collapsing. Indeed, the growth of these systems depended greatly upon rigging things so the loans could be riskier and riskier as the carry trade deteriorated while the yen continued to rise against the dollar more and more.
Each quarter, the riskier loans fed into risker loan pools which were turned into 'dark pools' since darkness is a big part of creating false wealth. And then these had to be repackaged and sold and lies told about the sales so the rating companies were dragged deep into the dark cave and they lied about value and all these lies are now falling apart since on one end, the loan payers are failing to pay monthly fees and the carry trade collapse is cutting off emergency funds that could be used to hide all this just like it did for the previous year.
CDO Dumping Ground Still Sinking
In the third quarter, ACA took a pre-tax write-down of $1.7 billion, $1.5 billion of which stemmed from the decreased value of its subprime guaranteed portfolio. That helped push the company's financial results, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, to a loss of $1 billion, and its GAAP net worth to minus $888 million.Yet ACA Capital was quick to express "surprise" at the S&P action, which it contended was unwarranted. By its own reckoning, ACA had earned an "economic" profit of $5 million in the quarter, ignoring the mark-to-market adjustment that, the company stressed, represented only "unrealized" potential losses. Furthermore, ACA maintained that its bond- guarantee unit had ended the third quarter with "qualified statutory capital," or net worth, of $425.5 million.
But in the end, ACA seems to be splitting accounting hairs. For one thing, it's likely that the market-price decline of its insured portfolio won't magically reverse, and the insurer will have to pay heavy loss claims on its guarantees. And, in an analyst call, ACA acknowledged that yet more mark-to-market losses are coming in the current quarter because of the continuing deterioration of the subprime collateralized-debt-obligation (CDO) market.
Of course, they expected things to magically reverse! But magic works only if there is no counter-spell. So long as the Chinese are chanting, 'Yen must be strong! Yen must be strong,' all the games based on 'Yen must be weak,' have collapsed. The coflateralized bond market depends on foreigners like in Saudi Arabia or Japan or China buying these things. If others bought them, they used either loans from the carry trade or they were representing retirement funds which are now furious about these scams and are now beginning to besiege these funds and the government to return their investments. ACA Capitol was one of the bottom feeders which the Big Boys used as a neat place to stow bad deals and thus, pretend all was well when everything was covered with mud. But now that this muddy puppy has escaped its kennel, everyone is alarmed.
This will renew the already nasty declines in value of the biggest financial giants. And they richly deserve this.
ACA’s downgrade threat could leave CDS counterparties without recourse
In total, ACA Financial insures USD 69bn of asset backed and corporate bonds for 31 counterparties through the use of credit default swap contracts, according to SEC filings. Those contracts include coverage of USD 25.7bn in AAA rated ABS CDO notes backed by subprime RMBS, many of which are held on the balance sheets of investment banks.Citigroup has USD 43bn in exposure to super senior ABS CDO notes, while Morgan Stanley has USD 8.3bn in exposure, according to the companies. Merrill Lynch has USD 14.2bn in ABS CDO super senior exposure.
In the last year, the dumping of crummy tranches and trashy CDOs into this neat ACA trash can accelerated. It is now coming to screeching halt about $60 billion too late. Someone will have to eat these losses and the biggest banking and finance houses like Merrill Lynch who is still very bullish, will desperately deny they are the holders and owners of a bunch of bonds that are worthless. The downdraft this will cause is plenty big for already, these guys are being hammered by short sellers as well as frightened investors demanding their money back even at 98¢ to the dollar.
However, AAA rated subprime CDOs currently trade from the high single digits on junior tranches to 60% of face on super senior tranches, according to a sellsider and a buysider. Almost all of the CDOs ACA Financial insures are super senior, according to its recent 10-Q. If S&P, which is the only agency to rate ACA, slashes its rating, markdowns of 40% could translate to payouts on insurance contracts exceeding USD 10bn - roughly 10 times the company’s ability to pay.Merrill Lynch in the third quarter discounted its own super senior ABS CDO holdings by an average 19%, while mezzanine AAA notes were written down by 37%.
The Markit ABX fund tracking is a bloodbath. After a very brief uptick thank to Santy Bernanke, it is back on the collapse track. And this didn't begin with the homes going bankrupt in California, it began to collapse when Japan and China began their secretive FOREX battles.
Investment banks that underwrite CDOs typically retain the super senior tranches and offset that risk by entering CDS contracts with insurers like ACA, said a sellside trader.The hedge allows the banks to collect the negative basis between the interest rate on the bonds and the cost of the CDS. A bankruptcy filing by ACA would render those contracts worthless, and leave the write-down plagued banks with even more subprime exposure on their books, the buyside source said.
We are in this horrible system set up with a million hedging deal schemes. These schemes are supposed to shelter everyone from risk. True to the perverse nature of humans, the minute they sense there is little risk, they double the risks and things get worse, not better. Everyone has been playing 'hot potato' and now have their fingers burned and the potato is mashed. It can't return to its former potato shape. Indeed, these goofy hedging systems made money which caused the parent organization to increase this. This is why everything ran off the cliff together. All systems set to make money by having things go bad went very bad because of this natural paradox: bad systems made higher profits than ordinary, safe systems! As always. This is why regulators have to forbid these sorts of systems, not encourage them.
Bank of America's Countrywide Deal Loses $858 Million
Bank of America Corp.'s $2 billion investment in Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, has lost almost half its paper value as Countrywide fell amid speculation it may file for bankruptcy.
On a side note, HAHAHA. I said this was a goofy, stupid deal. I figured that Goldman Sachs in the form of Paulson went to his Bank of America drinking buddies and begged them to save the US mortgage markets. Now that money has vanished and I bet they are grinding their fangs. Serves them right. And if ever a banking entity deserves bankruptcy, Mazilo's money machine is the perfect candidate. I hope shareholders who bought his and the other officers' $1 billion in shares all sue them for this money.
These charts clearly show the banking industry is not just declining but is in a mutual death spiral. All the major systems are falling off the cliff and are dragging down the DOW for example. But the DOW should go down because all the financial indicators are trending towards the negative even despite the drop in imports and rise in exports. The negative numbers are overwhelming the positives. But the banking sector's fall is much worse than export drops or businesses folding.
When banks collapse, whole systems fall. In the Reagan years after irresponsible interest rates, irresponsible Federal tax cuts, loss of trade status and then the Plaza Acccords artifically cutting the value of the dollar atainst the Germans and Japanese, we got this big banking collapse. Indeed, these collapses have been like clockwork every 15 years or so. This is because our entire economic system is misshapen by our imperial wars and desire to spend much more than we earn. We are the ultimate destabilizing force at work. Everyone else, being competitors, exploit this.
Both Bank of American and UBS are in the identical track downwards.
This chart showing the Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, Wells Fargo, the DOW and the FI markets clearly show how, after 2006, all began to diverge rapidly with the banks all in a similar decline, the German bank somewhat slower than the US and UK banks.
This divergence chart clearly shows it began in 2006. And the volume shows that the Big Players all knew this was diverging and was bad news and so they began selling WHILE LYING ABOUT THINGS and while selling off their own stuff just like Mazilo of Countrywide was selling $600 million in his own stocks, they sold to people who were not in the 'know' and had no idea what was really going on. Now we see trade volume increase as desperate sellers seek someone, anyone, to sell these stocks to. Like, say, the Chinese. Who just might buy in the end when the price is right.
Elaine,
Can you comment on some of the other banks like Bank of New York Mellon and Wachovia. What is their exposure?
It would be great to see a chart of the top 15 banks.
Thanks,
Posted by: big | November 21, 2007 at 01:18 PM
Great post ! The system is coming apart, and it's really only a matter of time before financial chaos ensues ( Roubini is now predicting it ). Another good summary re the housing meltdown is today's entry on Housing Depression : http://housingdepression.blogspot.com/2007/11/housing-getting-worse.html
Posted by: ch11_weasel | November 21, 2007 at 02:39 PM
Then you don't see the old hag.......You've met my wife then???????? LOL just joking!!! ;)
Posted by: Greg | November 21, 2007 at 04:29 PM
Elaine,
Keep an eye on the credit card defaults after this X'mas...it is going to be another body blow to the banking sector.
Posted by: OC | November 21, 2007 at 05:56 PM
Here's a forecast for ya; dark clouds all day, everyday....
Forecast: U.S. dollar could plunge 90 pct
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2007/11/19/forecast_us_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/4876/
Posted by: Blunt Force Trauma | November 21, 2007 at 07:42 PM
Hmm, sorry that one won't work...this one will.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2007/11/19/forecast_us_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/4876
Posted by: Blunt Force Trauma | November 21, 2007 at 07:44 PM
Twice in my life the dollar plunged 50% or more already. Most Americans were barely aware of this, only those of us who were in either Japan or Germany (me) knew this happened.
But this over-all reevaluation is hammering us because we now import far more than we did in 1974, for example. It is a very much bigger part of our economy.
We bought gas today. 20 gallons for $73----in 2000, we paid only $17.80 for the same gas! This is beyond simple inflation. we are being hammered by this. Most gas stations require pre-pay now because so many people are stealing gas.
Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 21, 2007 at 09:24 PM
This would probably be the last good X'mas for all of us for a very long, long time...make it count.
Time to stock up for winter is upon us all...doesn't it sound like one of dark Norse tales
Posted by: OC | November 22, 2007 at 12:02 AM
Look at what China just did with ASEAN, Korea and Japan in today's news...it is building a economic zone without free loaders and getting itself ready for winter....out goes India, Australia and New Zealand...
Posted by: OC | November 22, 2007 at 12:07 AM
OC, you read right except that you may have misunderstood about India, Australia and New Zealand. They are very much included in the discussions. Pls read:
http://www.bilaterals.org/article.php3?id_article=9428
The formation of United Asia is very much on the front burner. Much to the consternation of the US & EU.
Posted by: Carlos | November 22, 2007 at 01:49 AM
Elaine, just look to this «wave» of Euribor rates raising:
http://www.suomenpankki.fi/Stats/default.aspx?r=%2Ftilastot%2Fmarkkina-_ja_hallinnolliset_korot%2Feuriborkorot_pv_chrt_en
http://www.suomenpankki.fi/
Stats/default.aspx?r=
%2Ftilastot%2Fmarkkina-_
ja_hallinnolliset_korot
%2Feuriborkorot_pv_chrt_en
It's very scary !!
Posted by: PJSV | November 22, 2007 at 08:50 AM
Here's the article cited by Blunt Force Trauma:
Posted by: Frank | November 22, 2007 at 01:38 PM
More on Gerald Celente:
http://www.trendsresearch.com/
((----- Copy & Paste -----))
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/
Business/2007/11/19/forecast_us
_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/4876
This looks like serious shit.
Posted by: blues | November 22, 2007 at 02:54 PM
I forgot you had the link above, Elaine. I'm just a little shocked.
I am working on a hypothesis about global oil security. It will be a little controversial. I will at least put it up at My Left Wing.
What bastards and bastardesses they are. I'm almost ready to vote for Chairman Mao.
Posted by: blues | November 22, 2007 at 03:01 PM
China is playing some amazing games like telling the Kitty Hawk to go to hell then turning around and being nice. They are TESTING US.
They want Australia and DEFINITELY India as allies. Very much so! They do not want India as a back door into Tibet. They are not stupid.
Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 22, 2007 at 08:03 PM
For those currently in the Ron Paul bubble out there, here is a great blog entry on his "theory of racism".
http://www.qando.net/details.aspx?entry=7307
For all of Paul's common-sense on economics, his right-libertarian philosophy puts this country down a road already traveled...
For those libertarians out there, please take a look at left-libertarianism....and positive freedom.
Posted by: big | November 22, 2007 at 08:38 PM
I get real nervous when I see all the white people (no offense meant)who support Paul. aura bogado wrote a good column in ZNET about him. I'm like one of those one-issue people now, I dislike most of his domestic policy but he's the only anti-war candidate out there, absolutley the only one to stand up to Israel. So he would be worse than any of the dems in many respects. But it's worth it to me to end the slaughter of innocent people overseas. Don't mean the troops, they can all go to hell as far as I'm concerned. but to see the destruction of Iraq and Afghanistan end, to me that's the major issue.
Posted by: Al | November 22, 2007 at 09:41 PM
Elaine,
I suspect China + Japan + Korea decide to include ASEAN into their fledging trade bloc because of the following reasons:
1. They survive the Asian dollar Crisis and are probably better prepared mentally and institutionally to deal with the upcoming USD Crisis
2. They have built up their reserves and be less of a burden to the big 3
3. Their economies are mostly controlled by overseas Chinese
With regards to India and Australasia, it is going to be tough negotiations but essentially you are right - they will be in.
Posted by: OC | November 23, 2007 at 12:14 AM
The super rich are in a dilema like BIG said. Money has to get into the hands of the little guy, so he can pay his debts and keep buying products from the assets of the super rich.
Yet they love their position in society by being the gatekeepers of the growth of the money supply. They get the new money by taking debt.. then the little guys have to trade something of real value to the super rich to get that money.
Eg.. their labor or property. But for labor there is some other little guy more desperate and willing to take a much lower wage.
I've studied the Japan situation in 1990 and all the issues here are exactly the same. The difference imo is Japan had some options we didn't have. Massive savings and savings rate, and especially low government debt back then. The Japanese weren't willing to break the super rich's place as the gatekeepers. But Japan's super rich have been hammered over the last 17 years as the value of all their assets like real estate keeps plummetting.
Posted by: aa2 | November 23, 2007 at 06:39 AM
Ron Paul is not a racist. No, I don't really have the energy to hash it all out here. Believe as you will, but it isn't true.
However, Al is certainly a piece of work.
-John the Cracka-ass Cracka
Posted by: John | November 23, 2007 at 10:23 AM
The Telegraph channels Elaine:
Posted by: Frank | November 23, 2007 at 10:42 AM
I just published another eye opener about all this mess with the carry trade. Isn't it exciting, how things are going.
About Ron Paul: he is, like Ross Perot, a typical Texan. I once lived in Texas and I know how Texans think. I used to tease them by saying, 'In Arizona, we think you are EASTERNERS.' Them being hundreds of miles closer to NYC than those of us in Tucson.
Namely, they can be very unreasonable and too self-assured and are also very thin skinned.
Ron Paul is challenging authority and this, in my opinion, is a WONDERFUL thing and his revolutionary challenge to the Federal Reserve and other systems is very greatly needed. So I am happy as hell he is running.
About racism: it is deep, abiding and exists all over the place. Ask the Democrats to denounce Jewish beliefs in being 'god's chosen people'. Hell, ask Ron Paul. He believes this garbage! But he still wants to cut them off from US funds which is very funny, actually.
Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 23, 2007 at 11:06 AM
Elaine,
Interesting comment about Texans.
Regarding cutting off funds to Israel,
my thought is that he doesn't want to use Federal funds, but he would be perfectly fine with a state majority voting to send state tax dollars to support the chosen people.
Paul's policies repeat the "tyranny of majority" of stateism, and his religious beliefs will guide this. For this, no matter what common-sense he talks about the economic system, he is not the antidote for the poison we've been FED over the past 30 years.
Posted by: big | November 23, 2007 at 12:28 PM
Correct, Big. So correct.
But again, the value of such candidates are gold for they force the conversation our way. There is no other way, this not being a multi-party country, alas. We are not as frozen in place as Japan where the politicians nearly totally ignore the populace but we are getting closer every year.
Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 23, 2007 at 03:48 PM
John,
Probably I didn't explain myself correctly. I think Ron Paul is a straight arrow, and don't believe he is in any way a racist.
The point I was trying to make I guess in a clumsy way, is no matter what else Paul believes in - he is the best hope for ending the war and the policies which led up to it.
I'm not sure what piece of work means, probably negative but "piece of work" sure beats name-calling and I thank you for that.
I'm Indian and Thanksgiving always sets me off so that's just the way I am around this time of year. Sort of edgy, although I watched the part in Dances with Wolves where we win and that helped.
take care
Posted by: Al | November 23, 2007 at 08:50 PM
Al, the kindness shown to the invading Europeans can't be comprehended or compensated by us after all the terrible things that have happened. My own ancestors, when they came, ended up intermingling with the Mohawks and the Delaware Indians due to lack of spouses. To this day, we have an occasional family member who looks like those fine ancestors. One sister of mine played Indians on TV shows in the sixties, for example.
Yes, this is a hard time of year. I wish I could have had some way of extending thanks to you that was meaningful.
Posted by: Elaine Supkis | November 23, 2007 at 10:19 PM
Elaine,
everything you do here is meaningful. Your photo with your family meal and good wishes were very welcoming, and I appreciate it as I know all your readers appreciate it. You truly understand the way those who are different from you feel. A rare quality.
Thanks for all you do.
Posted by: Al | November 24, 2007 at 02:09 AM
Al,
I simply didn't care for the comment about "the troops can all go to hell." And I understand, with Original American ancestry (I am a 'native' American, as I was born here), you've got more good cause to dislike the American military than anyone. But humans are still humans, and your assertion that American soldiers dying is peachy, but that Arabs and Persians dying isn't, doesn't sit well with me.
I'd prefer the senseless killing to stop, all the way 'round.
Posted by: John | November 24, 2007 at 01:06 PM
John,
You are completely correct, and I was out of line. Please accept my apology, as well if I have offended others. Being pissed about things was no excuse for the remark. Some family members just gave me hell as well, and I deserve it.
take care,
Al
Posted by: Al | November 25, 2007 at 08:51 PM
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