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I've been thinking for a while now that Britain was going to be the first domino to go. Originally I thought it would be the US, but Britain really is in worse shape than we are and its smaller economy has less inertia, so it will be quicker to fall. When it goes, it will take most of the world with it, I think, especially because of its importance in world finance.

One thing I think we be different than the Great Depression is that food prices aren't going to drop, at least not till the population starts dying off. A perfect storm of top soil erosion & salination, world-wide droughts, biofuel production, and expensive hydrocarbons is going to push food prices higher, even in a depression. There will be starvation in the third world, and maybe in places like India & China.


The Chinese government will not allow mass starvation, they are only too aware of the danger of revolt by rural workers, unhappy with the increasing inequality, local corruption, ethnic tensions, helath care deficiencies and so on. Food will become the focus of coordinated political, economic and diplomatic action, just like we see now with energy, trade or Taiwan. China can afford higher priced food. What China cannot afford ( and this is, I believe, the source of its strength ) is to become complacent.


FWIW Re: Bin Laden. I study astrology in depth. BL has a mentality accorded by Lilly Strength at least a standard deviation higher than anyone else in my astro files. I know personally one person 2 deviations below BL in Lilly Strength of the planet Mercury and she is the most brilliant and productive person I have met particularly at objectifying her intentions into the world. Wm. Lilly was the British astrologer who correctly predicted the great London Fire in the 1600’s.



I agree that China won't allow mass starvation. I do think they are at risk for hunger, and their attempts to deal with that will be one of the reasons food prices won't be going down as the global economy tanks. It is the poorer nations of the world that will be in the worst difficulties (when has it ever been different?).

Elaine Supkis

At first, there was a farm goods glut and prices fell in 1929-1931. Then we had the Great Dust Bowl. In the Great Depression, people starved in China and Mao took off as a potential leader.


Some fundamental differences in the food situation between the 1930's depression and the present situation.

Important is that the world population in 1930 was two billion, and is now 6.5 billion. Also, the world is far more urbanized now than in the 1930's, and all of those people need to eat.

In addition to many more mouths to feed, more and more of what was the 3rd world is acquiring wealth and wants to live the 1st world lifestyle, bidding up the price of oil and food, just as world oil reserves start decreasing. Even if massive deflation occurs, there seems to be a cap on how low oil prices can fall. People need to eat, and the only way the world knows how to feed that many people is with oil-based agriculture. (Yes, anyone who can see with clarity is producing or learning to produce their own food, or buying locally grown, but at present that is a small % of USA population. It will take crisis and time before enough food can be produced locally to feed all local people, in urban areas anyway. Such systems just don't exist at present.)

In the depression farmers dumped food because the selling price was below the cost of production. It seems fairly likely this time there will be food shortages, not surpluses. Few US families live on farms any longer - the average California backyard is about six feet by ten feet.

From yesterday's Guardian, UK:
Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring

Neuro Artist

Here is a very interesting article by William Engdahl, about the doomsday seed vault in the arctic financed by the elites:


It made the hairs stand at the back of my neck, reading it...


Elaine has missed the key to the puzzle. There's nothing to worry about. The American economy will be saved by insourcing!

Foreign Acquisition of U.S. Firms Seen as Good for Economy

The increase in foreign acquisitions is helping buoy America's economy by bringing in additional capital and adding jobs, according to a new report published yesterday by the Organization for International Investment. The report, by a professor of international economics at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, Matthew Slaughter, found that America has received $2 trillion in investments as a result of foreign purchases of American companies over the past two decades.

This trend, which Mr. Slaughter dubs "insourcing," also helps boost tax revenues because foreign-acquired American companies are taxed by the U.S. government. In 2004, these companies paid $29.9 billion in federal income taxes, or 13.3% of the total paid by American companies.



So if you have money in a brokerage/savings acct, where should you invest for times like these? The rich guys invest in hedge funds, but what about the rest of us? US dollar CDs, gold, TIPS, Euro, Swiss Franc? Please help make sense of something practical to do to safeguard one's family with all this bad news!! Thanks!

Elaine Supkis

With the G7 banking system collapsing?

Well, knowing how to hunt helps. And karate lessons. A brace of good trained dogs. Maybe a war horse, too. If things go bad, archery helps [all these skills or things I have and use].

Keeping out of 'trouble' is good, too. This means, not being 150% in debt.

I can't tell what will happen with currencies next. Lord knows! Anything can happen. Remember: governments control money. They can lurch in any direction they wish. This includes making backroom deals that benefit them, not us little people.

Not Student


All elaine's advices are good, but I'll offer another more achievable one: Migrate to China, if you don't mind the crowd, that is.


If you are trying to save your hard earned dollars, then good luck to you. As Elaine pointed out, we live in a system that is designed to fleece us of anything we save and perhaps even more.

Any investment advice is useless unless it comes from the ruling elites right after one of their "meetings", and they don't want you to make any money.

I invest what little I have in things that I think the ruling elites will not want, like photo albums of my sons, scrapbooks, portraits of my wife and daughter, wool rugs and ramskins to sleep on, firewood, spam, water, and a heavy axe or two.

They can steal my truck if they want to. Damn thing costs too much anyway.


I don't think China wants you to emigrate there since they have plenty of people, but they might let you migrate there if you were a bird, carribou, or some other form of edible food. But somehow if you settle there, don't swim in the Yangtze river, especially above the Three Gorges dam because you can't float high enough. If you must, keeping your head above the water would be paramount. And fgs, don't drink the river's water.

Alice Cook

I fear that this interest rate cut might actually work. It might encourage people to spend over Christmas, and in the short run stabilise house prices. Who knows? In a wave of misplaced euphoria, house prices might take off again and record another year of double-digit growth. Perhaps in the spring, the Bank of England might supplement this interest-rate cut with another one. Maybe by late summer, interest rates will be down to 4%.

However, lurking in the background, is personal sector indebtedness. If the Bank of England interest-rate cut proves to be successful, debt ratios will rise further. Sooner or later, the private sector has to stop consuming and begin to repair its balance sheets. My fear is that private sector indebtedness will deteriorate further in the next year, and when the day of reckoning finally arrives, the UK will face a calamitous banking crisis. This crisis will come about because of rising personal sector defaults.

If the Bank of England had held rates steady today, consumption would slow down, and with it economic growth would decelerate. In the worst-case scenario, the UK might have entered a recession during the first half of next year. However, personal sector debt levels would begin to fall, banks would begin to reduce their exposure, and eventually the situation will improve. Times would have been difficult, to be sure, but delaying the process of adjustment will only make matters worse.

In summary, today's decision to cut rates is a disaster. It was cowardly, self-interested, and ultimately it will bring more problems than it will solve. A shameful day for the Bank of England.


UK Housing Bubble .


On a whim I put "Coleman Stipanovich" into google because I wanted to know what kind of idiot loses so much taxpayer money investing in such worthless trash.

Surprise, surprise, it turns out he's the brother of a Florida Republican lobbyist, was supported for his current post by Jeb Bush, and was deputy director of this SAME DAMN FUND when it lost hundreds of millions of taxpayer money buying Enron and continuing to buy Enron until it was a penny stock. Yo, ho, ho, you earned a promotion.

And oh yeah, he has a bachelor of science in criminology and a master's in criminal justice. Is there a better word when the word irony no longer suffices?



Trying to make sense of a gold investment:

Frank, as for investment, and, mind you, not being an investor myself until lately and studying the issues hard, this is what I've found:

US Stocks are worse than the US dollar, if not most other currencies right now; dollars are *probably* worse than gold in the long run for sure, but in the short run it's anyone's guess. I would suggest for those who aren't a savvy investor, gold being your surest bet in these times.

Gold isn't an investment per se. It's just a hedge against a devaluing currency. Gold has its power in that it doesn't inflate or deflate (that's one of the reasons why the Fed. Reserve hates it and all controlling Gov. do too) Analogously, like two ships passing in the night, you travelling on the ship called "currency" while passing by the other ship called "gold", you might assume that the other ship changes positions (gold inflating or deflating). No, it's currency that changes in value relative to the static of gold's purchasing power.

It could be said that gold has static purchasing power. But to get ahead of the other folks in a fiat based currency, you need to invest in fiat based businesses. This is why the Federal Reserve wants and gets, even though you think it's just the way things work. (Do I get a shout out from those from the land of "economic slavery"?)

30 years ago an ounce of gold could buy an expensive suit. Five years ago, an ounce of gold could buy an expenisve suit, but today it can buy a really expensive one. Lately people are losing faith in the US dollar because of its loss of status (hegamony) and the amount in circulation (M3). Gold's value and the dollar are somewhat inversely proportional. The exact inverse relationship can never be known or predicted because man being man changes it sometimes to his wishes and whims.

As I said, gold itself isn't technically an investment. But the alternative right now is knowing a great deal about investing in other strong foreign currencies or other strong foreign businesses, stocks or bonds. I have no clue what they might be. I am not going to even try to guess.

With a $20,000 investment in gold, and a devaluing dollar, it might buy the same in 5 years, even though that investment might be worth $500,000 because of hyperinflation. But with gold your purchasing power will almost stay the same. You see, somewhere in the world there is a currency that will exchange with you what gold can buy with their currency. Gold is always wanted by someone, somewhere on some continent who will give you his currency for your gold.

Gold is a commodity and thusly ebbs and flows with demand. So it's not entirely a sure thing. That's in the short run. In the long run it will prove to be a good investment. If you invested today in gold, with a small amount, and the dollar shot up for a while, which makes gold appear to have less value, could you stick with it or would you run and complain that you did the wrong thing? As people need to sell gold as the dollar loses value, can you stick to your investment when it gyrates in value too much? These need to be answered before you invest.

I think Gold is the only real answer for poeple with modest incomes today and little know how.

There are several avenues to take when buying gold. Really look hard into your options because some are better than others, and there's no guarantee that in cases of a severe emergency will you come out ahead.

The great thing about gold is that it can be transformed into any currency with similar buying buying power. So if you bought gold shares, and wanted to convert them at your bank to any currency because of the US dollar's inconsistency then that could be accomplished. Of course the question is will people accept it here in the states? I wouldn't know, but if we get to the point of hyperinflation, you can bet your sweet ass that businesses will learn quick enough what other currencies look like.

Good luck, and buyer beware. This is advice for those who consider this just research and nothing absolutely correct. And if you care not to take advice from an inexperienced investor, then go hire Goldman Sachs. ;->

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