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whine and cheese

el-erian of PIMCO correctly predicted a flight into low-yield asian currencies a month ago...


Hi Elaine,

There has been much news about the unexpected GDP growth at 3.3%. Many sites discuss that the GDP deflator is artificially low, at 1.3%, when the average CPI is 4.4% and we know that inflation is closer to 9% using pre-Clinton techniques.

Some other sites say that this argument is flawed and the deflator doesn't relate very well to inflation and that armchair economists should stop second guessing the government numbers.

They use the following example.

In 2007 a country produces 500 coconuts and sells them at $1.
They need 1 barrel of oil which is imported for $100.
Since imports aren't included, the GDP for 2007 is $500.

In 2008 , through productivity enhancements 510 coconuts can be produced with the same barrel of oil, but now the oil costs $125. Thus oil inflation is 25% this year. The example usually states that they sell the coconuts for $1.01 this year. Thus the Nominal GDP 2008 = $515.10. Again oil is not included because it is imported.

So 2008 GDP Growth including inflation = (515/500 - 1)*100%= 3%

What if they charged the same for the coconuts as 2007. GDP still increases, but to a lesser extent.

2008 GDP Growth without inflation = (510/500 - 1)*100%= 2%

So the deflator to account for inflation is 1%.

The pro-government statistics argument is " see the 1% deflator doesn't having anything to do with oil inflation of 25%" so the lay economists are wrong.

The failure as I see it is that the 1% is non-import price inflation,
which relates inextricably to the price of raw materials to build the product ( which may or may not be imported).

Thus the deflator should be a representation of broad price inflation of both local and imported raw materials, or companies would go out of business by not passing along the price increases.

This is a hot subject on the internet, and your input would be valued.



Hopefully, after the systemic collapse of the US and Western financial systems the citizens will seize the opportunity to replace the debt based system with an asset based system. Of course, those in power will also attempt to seize the moment by stripping away our remaining civil liberties and freedom to complete their implementation of a fascist totalitarian government.

It may seem very unlikely that the citizens will rise to the occasion given how well the main stream media has done in controlling the news and public opinion.

For example, the media has hidden the truth of 911 despite the fact that the evidence is overwhelming that it was an inside job. And, they have apparently "numbed" the morality of masses - last week for example, the US killed around 80 innocent Afghani citizens; mostly women and children. The story received little attention and surprisingly, there was no moral outcry for an investigation.

It has been clearly established that Georgia initiated the violence in attacking South Ossetia. The Russians knew they were coming and make quick business of crushing Georgia's attack. But yet, our media still presents Russia as the aggressor.

Perhaps the most sinister media misinformation ploy has been in hiding the fact that we have already passed the point of no return with our economy and currency. The government knows this and is preparing for martial law by years end and the final meltdown to take place next year.

911, a false flag operation, worked extremely well in rallying and solidifying support for a "war on terror" that has neither a defined enemy or ending - perpetual war. And now, we are being herded for a renewal of the "cold war" - another war with vague objectives and no defined ending (other than a nuclear nightmare).

I think the neocons and their masters; uber-wealthy plutocrats, have sorely over-played their hand and are ripe for a topple.

Just like financial bubbles suddenly pop so to will the disinformation bubbles - in a chain reaction that will leave the king naked - and 300 million Americans will see the truth.



Communists? What is with the name calling. And we do not have a state controlled economy? Our markets are planned every tick. Whom are you kidding.

Bear of Little Brain

Elaine, you are so right. (That's dumb; you know that already ;-) )
I won't bore you again with my engineered system analogy, but I suspect that one preferred solution is in the CFR/Ben Steil essay referred to by myself and others in the past. A single world currency rooted in some way in gold, which would act as a tether or dampener on the system.

Whine: did PIMCO include the very low yielding Swissie? 'Cos I just dumped a loada dosh out of a sterling savings account and into a ZERO yielding Franc account. All courtesy of the bloodsucking HSBC (Motto: "We never knowingly advise you of a better-yielding savings account we've started offering."). I'm too embarrassed to quote the exchange rate. Suffice it to say, I looked at the GBP/SFR chart and panicked.


Elaine.....if you have the time and inclination, your take on Mike Whitney's interview with Michael Hudson titled "How the Chicago Boys Wrecked the Economy" would be appreciated.


whine and cheese

check out, "currency wars". it's a popular book in china:


Bear of Little Brain

If you want a real freak-out, check George Ure's posting today (the Russian/Georgia bit)
He does say to take it with a pinch of salt.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

As always, Mike Whitney is a very, very good interviewer. And as always, Mr. Hudson misses a few important boats. Like nearly everyone except for Moi, Miss Piggy herself, I don't think hardly a soul who is big on the net ever mentions Japan. Or the fact that Germany not only has been running surpluses with the US for 35 years but is also reassembling the Holy Roman Empire IV.

A fact Russia has noted with greatest fury.


Well, Bear, I read just the same thing from the Russian Orthodox nuns of whatdoesitmean. In exactly the same words! Whoa!

I'll deliver my opinion as soon as I get verification over at conspiracyplanet. This should not take more than 24 hours.


Holy Shit, Bear!!!

Just a little perfunctory fact-checking over at Conspiracy Planet and the big pieces all fall right together. It's much stranger than anyone could imagine. The "Israel" that we all know and love, is NOT the real Israel at all!!!

The real Israel is... be seated... Georgia.

Yup. I got it all right here, straight from Conspiracy Planet itself. Look:



You think that the Russian economy is centrally planned? Is that why you call them communists? Their bourse fell 30% this month. They have a free market. Medvedev did not print two hundred billion rubles and send checks around to keep up the market. He did not call in the banks and offer them limitless two percent loans so they could buy equities. So again, whom are you kidding. The USA is a free market?


Well of course, Calvino, "communist" and capitalist" were never anything more than "honorary" titles. Nobody makes money "the old fashioned way," since the has never been any "new fashioned way." (Old fashioned way = Gutenberg Method.)

And Bear! Get this look real close at that Conspiracy Planet map of the Real Israel!!! (Khazaria.) It sits directly atop the biggest fields of light sweet ever discovered!!!

Buffalo Ken

Well my house is almost paid for. Just used that line of credit i have from one instituion to transfer funds to another institution.

The transfer will occur in the near future assuming i have my spouse's blessing.

Hey Wachovia - I hope you are true to your logo and your heritage.


Buffalo Ken

lets let the gnomes turn each other into nothing! Then the gnomes will be gnomes and the men will be men ----- and of course, there is no forgetting the women.

The women....well, there are no words.

Bear of Little Brain

Excuse me, but my post was specifically addressed to DrKrbyLuv. Is there no privacy?


Sorry Bear. I come from a background of glass bead curtains. Stuff goes around, comes around, and I get dizzy. I should rest now.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Hey, this is a skinny dipping hippie site! There is NO privacy. We strip in public, like at Woodstock.


Any fig leaves available? Grape leaves? Hell, I'll take poison ivy! Modesty was always my greatest virtue. I have nearly no virtues left, so a little accommodation here would go a long way!!!

Bear of Little Brain


Just joshing with you, Punky! ;-)

If I have to be serious, I seem to recall that Adolph intended to solve "the Jewish problem", as it was known by both Jews and gentiles, by deporting them to somewhere in eastern Europe/Asia, but providing them with a homeland there. Perhaps he was thinking of Khazaria (European Jewry being of Khazar decent, apparently). Instead the Zionists collaborated with the Nazis for Israel as the Jewish homeland (racial purity and a racial homeland was common ground for both parties). Then it all went downhill (New York Jews declaring economic war on Germany in, I think, 1933 didn't help). If anyone wants to debunk this history, you're welcome, BTW.
Anyway, what an irony, if true. Instead of going for Khazaria, which appears to have plenty of land, rivers, coastline and, you say, oil, they chose to plonk themselves down amidst the actual Semites in a land which strikes me as rather arid and lacking in almost everything except ill will. Maybe they're realising their mistake.
Oh, how the Gods mock us!
I think I had better retire to my bunker now, just in case, although no offense is intended to anyone. Just musing.

Christian W

Heh, I've always thought of that Naked Emperor Bush and his followers as naked people strutting about waving figurative and rethorical figleafs to cover their moral nakedness.

These 'figleaves' are simply the lies and spin they reach for each time one of their schemes fall apart.

'Hey, look! I've got a FIG leaf! I'm not naked! Tralalalaaa! Wohoo, I've got a FIG leaf...

Bernanke, Bush, White House spokesperson, et al: The Economy/War/Whatever is doing Great - just look at this FIG leaf! And then the American people go - ooooh, look it is not naked (as in dead in the water) they have a FIG leaf...

The race for President is just so much waving of Fig leafs too...

I just wish more people would wake up and see these 'Figleaves' for what they are. Spin and propaganda and outright lies to cover the nakedness of the Empire.


They are "special," alright. God is the ultimate ass-kicker. You want to be ANYTHING but "special" when God's in town! Don't just be careful what you ask for. Just run first, and NEVER ask for any damn thing! Just accept. I guarantee, it'll all be MUCH, MUCH simpler!!!

Bear of Little Brain


What God wants, God gets:

Sing along?:

have a great weekend!

Bear of Little Brain


I'm closing down for the long weekend.

Here's one for the hippy chick (no lyric sheet needed, I guess):


Elaine Meinel Supkis

Family showing up fast. Must cook for the troops. Many mouths to feed.

Mom time in spades.

Christian W

Sarah Chang playing the Vital Chaconne:


Christian W

*Vitali Chaconne*


>> whine and cheese

Thanks for the link to the "currency wars" link. Here's another link "Chinese buy into conspiracy theory" that was run in the Financial Times around a year ago. the articles dismisses the book as being "over-arching conspiracy theory." Sone interesting things:

- single root cause of our problems: the control of money issuance through history by the Rothschild banking dynasty.

- “gnomes of Zurich” and Wall Street manipulate global finance

- the Fed is a privately owned and run bank

- focus on the Rothschilds and what the book depicts as their Jewish clannishness

But of course, the article emphasizes that these are conspiracy theories - not accurate.

>> Bear of Little Brain

Thanks for the link, and yea, weapons-grade anthrax is freaky scary. The fact that we are counting the grains of salt in the story rather than simply dismissing it as too bizarre is scary in itself.


Does that BIS graph show USD being sold to purchase Asian currencies?

If it does, does that mean an unwinding of positions will result in strengthening of the USD versus Asian currencies?


Richard Cooke figured out why the Space Shuttle blew up, and figured out why the US financial system is imploding now.


A Master-Slave Society

Democrats in Denver Should Skip One of Their Parties and Read the American Monetary Act

By Richard C. Cook

28/08/08 "ICH" -- - How are things going at the Democratic Party National Convention in Denver this week?

Are they talking about the fact that the Western world is run by an international financial elite headquartered in London, the financial capitals of mainland Europe (such as Frankfurt, Hamburg, Amsterdam, Paris, and Milan), and, of course, New York City?

Are they mentioning at their cocktail parties that the financial elite exert control over the world’s population through the cartels that make up the world’s producing economies and through the civilian and military bureaucracies who work for the governments that kow-tow to them?
The second point is a call for a new monetary system, not one based solely on lending by the banks or on government borrowing. One organization that has developed a blueprint for such a system is the American Monetary Institute (AMI), headquartered in Chicago. The director of the AMI is Stephen Zarlenga, author of a massive, groundbreaking work: The Lost Science of Money (AMI, 2002). Zarlenga’s assistant is Jamie Walton, a monetary reformer from New Zealand.

AMI will be holding its fourth annual conference in Chicago on September 25-28. Expected as keynote speaker is Congressman Dennis Kucinich, whose wife Elizabeth once worked as an intern at AMI. Dr. Bob Blain will be a featured speaker.

On the AMI website at www.monetary.org is a remarkable document, the American Monetary Act. The product of several years of work by Zarlenga and his network, which now includes a number of local chapters around the country, the American Monetary Act would replace today’s debt-based monetary system with one where the government spends or loans money directly into circulation.

Under the Act, the Federal Reserve would be retained as a national financial clearinghouse but would no longer be a bank of issue. The system would be overseen by a Monetary Control Board within the U.S. Treasury Department. The Act also includes a provision for a citizens’ dividend, similar in some respects to the Alaska Permanent Fund, which would inject desperately needed purchasing power into the economy without additional government debt or taxation.

Also promoting a citizens’ dividend, by the way, is Stephen Shafarman in his important new book, Peaceful, Positive Revolution. (Tendril Press, 2008)

It’s the American Monetary Act the candidates and delegates in Denver should skip one of their parties to read, because it’s the only way any of their hopes for America can ever be realized. Says AMI’s Jamie Walton:

“This is a crucial time. Things are happening. We have got some key media people talking and writing about our kind of reforms. The inertia is starting to yield. Things are starting to roll. The worsening conditions in 2009 will give us a once-in-a-lifetime chance to be heard above the propaganda.”


What's with NZ and the carry trade? Are they going to get wiped-out worse than the US when this thing finally unwinds? I guess I'll have to find another Plan B Country.


Elaine, what do you think of Nouriel Roubin at RGE Monitor. There is striking similarity in your predictions, you just one step further and make losing the gold standard as the big bad apple (to which I totally agree - the gold standard assured there being something produced for the money spent, rather than something out of nothing as you have noted already).

Buffalo Ken

one year of bad banking continues no doubt - but, it doesn't always have to be this way now does it?

August - the month of gusto!

Gusto and integrity go together like....well, you provide the analagy - or is it a metaphor.


The sinews of war have always been profitable to the exploits of the banking cabal. Who else benefits from war?

Powerful ideas can never be met by powerful totalitarianism.

Buffalo Ken

yeah shouldn't' we all be sick and tired of a bunch of pompous bankers profiting upon the suffering of innocence?

I am.

Buffalo Ken

a bit of late night rambling here, but....

ideas, unlike individual humans can "live on" forever....don't you think?

Regardless I'm sick of usury-loving bankers profiting on suffering, lawyers and other legal professionals perverting law, and especially all the slimy politicians in the made-up federal city of DC from both stinking parties - the People's representation is gone...this reminds me of the song "Bye, Bye Miss American Pie".

The music can't be killed but many musicians and artists have been I suspect. One way or the other. Many have been consciously killed. Many including Kennedy and many others. And to think, they thought they could always "cover it up". The truth wants out.

It is time for justified retribution. I can think of no other alternative or solution. Can you?

Buffalo Ken

Retribution is not the same as vengeance and when justified entails the discriminate conviction of those specific few individuals who insist on perpetuating large-scale suffering of innocence. These few individuals must be held accountable otherwise there is no justice.

As I say at one of my websites -

"If you have been an offender, I suggest you join the convictors. Otherwise, be prepared for justice that pulls you in forever. The time for justified retribution is upon us. The People Choose - Don't U think?"

Of course many of those who adamantly cling to the status quo may be unable to acknowledge their responsibility for the dire situation we now find ourselves and may also essentially have no empathy for others they consider "inferior". These individuals need to re-learn a lesson they should have learned in kindergarden; otherwise, all indications suggests humanity's days are numbered and the number is much smaller than you might think, and the demise will be indiscriminate.

Seems to me that "Mother Nature" has a way of taking care of life that fits in, but just now humanity does not. This can change, but the time is NOW. Time is of the essence.

Peace is what we need.

Buffalo Ken

I guess I have to say one last thing. Sorry.

Anyhow, if what I describe above happens I think there will be a time of transition, but then it could be so great for the rest of US!

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Enjoy labor day, Ken.

Buffalo Ken

Thanks very much Elaine. I had a great day and now I'm looking forward to a calm September!


Buffalo Ken

Calm at least for me (goofy smiley face)

Bear of Little Brain

Remember our banter about tractor factories? John Deere is closing its Canadian plant with loss of 800 Canadian jobs:
Is this the North American Prosperity Partnership (or whatever it's called) in action? And so it goes - not for the Canadians, though.


Ah yes, cash is king during deflation: HSBC says super-rich clients moving into cash

Many of the world's wealthiest people have moved their money out of stocks and bonds and into cash, the head of HSBC's Swiss private banking unit said on Monday.

"The first half of 2008 has seen a notable change in client expectations and investment choices," said Peter Braunwalder, chief executive of HSBC Private Bank (Suisse), the British-based bank's main affiliate catering to the ultra-rich.

"Faced with inflation worries, volatile asset prices and sudden changes in exchange rates, a majority of investors have reduced their transaction volumes in equities, bonds, and structured products," he told a news briefing in Geneva.


France captain Patrice Evra claims that coach Raymond Domenech dropped him from the squad for "no valid reason'' and denied him the chance to apologise to the French public by reading out the players' statement himself.

Canada Goose sale

Precious things are very few in this world. That is the reason there is just one you.

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