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Frederick N. Chase

As usual, you've covered a lot of ground and I see an added distinction (good vs. bad speculation) that I think we want to make.

When you say that the idle speculators in the big cities place bets on natural events, you identify the "good" kind of speculation where there are no insiders: instead, we should identify and curtail the bad kind (which is associated with insider information).

I didn't figure this out myself. I learned it by reading Antal Fekete.

Here are some of the things he says:


--- Briefly stated, man is in a continual struggle with supply-shocks in the market. They come in two varieties: bumper crops and crop failures. The former is the Nemesis of producers, the latter that of consumers. Either way, the whole society suffers. However, supply-shocks can be mitigated through foresight, organized speculation, and intelligent warehousing. The fulcrum is the activity of warehousemen who, following the example of Joseph, allocate scarce storage space in a most efficient manner in order to provide for future contingencies.

--- "the basis" ......makes for an early warning system exposing potential supply shocks threatening society. Moreover, the basis also digests information such as the producers’ estimate of what is a good price for their product, comparing it with the speculators’. The basis picks up all signals, including producers’ forward sales and speculators’ purchases of futures contracts, bringing the two into balance.

--- Why is speculation successful in reducing risks inherent in nature, but a miserable failure when used to reduce risks artificially created by men? Why is it that when the government wants the speculative markets to reduce the fluctuation of foreign exchange and interest rates, or that of gold and silver prices .... the result is always contrary to purpose?


--- ..false prophets ... preach that in exactly the same way as speculation can counter the untoward effects of supply-shocks, it can also meet the challenge of demand-shocks. Just as speculation can face risks inherent in nature, it can also face risks artificially created by man. However.... When man meets risks artificially created by other men (including the government), it is .... akin to bets placed by the gambler on future events which may appear to be random but aren’t: they are rigged artificially by the casino owner for his own benefit. The false prophets, being apologists for government-induced gambling, are anxious to blot out this distinction.


--- Mainstream economists betrayed their sacred duty of searching for and disseminating truth. They started preaching the false gospel that it is possible to take out insurance against losses in the bond portfolio. However, the thesis that bond futures can be used for purpose of hedging the bond price (in exactly the same way as wheat futures can be used for the purpose of hedging the wheat price) is an outright lie. Only those price risks can be hedged where the price variation is nature given, as in the case of agricultural commodities. If the price variation is artificial, that is, subject to government and central bank manipulation as are foreign exchange and bonds under the regime of irredeemable currency, then it is preposterous to talk about hedging.

Fekete's stuff is *not* easy reading. But I find it worth extra time.

You can find his articles here: .


Elaine Meinel Supkis

Fred, you are correct. Fekete is always a good read and we learn a lot from him. He has played the markets and tries to explain to us its dynamics.

Man made inflation: it always is there along with deliberate depression a la Japan, for example. But it can't kick into gear unless there is something going on to give it a 'boost'. But like ALL systems run by humans; prone to crashing or taking off to infinity.

If we look at all religions, they try to curb this with prohibitions. Yet always, always, the sexual/financial prohibitions collapse when power grows! All religions are failures because of this dynamic. We are crazy apes. Rational apes don't reach for infinity. They just want to eat and have sex and pick fleas off of each other.


I was at the barber shop a few ys ago in
beautiful downtown Puyallup.

The weather was filthy and vile that day.

I was talking to an old timer about 90ys
old and he said that the rains were getting
harder and harder. Its always rained a lot
here in the NW but it was always a slow drizzly rain that you could be out and about in for an hour or more without really getting soaked

I had to spend thousands of dollars,mostly to the chiropractor, 10 ys
ago putting a french drain around my yard because we had an 8" rainfall that filled up
my crawl space with 2 feet of water. Almost came up to the joists.Everybody said they had never seen this kind of rain before in Puget Sound.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

In Arizona, we have the fierce flood/drought cycle in spades. When it rains, it comes down like a huge firehose, all at once. Everything is running water which rushes off to the Colorado. Only in El Nino years do we get regular, gentle rains.


I'll send some awesome pics of Baboquivari, Organ Cactus NP,
Saguaro NP, Chirachua NP and Sabino Canyon sometime

BTW is that great Mex restaurant, Casa Molina, still open on
Speedway Blvd ? You know, the one with the big fiberglass bull
out front.

I havent been to Tuscon in 15 ys now.. We will see it
again when we see my nephew in Phoenix this Sept ( ie, unless Obama or our 51st state bombs the Persians. If they do that, ALL of the airlines plus Boeing will goto the big runway in the sky.


What keeps the earth warm? The Sun.

What would you think should happen if the sun has massive solar flares that create more heat radiation? The Earth warms.

Earth warms, melts snow and releases C02 from the Artic bogs.

Here are the charts the show correlation between Solar Flares and Earth Temperature.

I just talked to a Greenpeace activist on the street about stopping GM food (Good!) and about stopping coal plants (Hmmm...)

Now that New Zealand has no new coal plants, us peasants have no more 5 cents per KWH electricity. We have renewable electricity from dams...that run out of water. Now we pay 38 cents per KWH because they have to run old diesel generators to fill the gap.

Restricting Carbon is part of the Bilderberg plan to restrict the growth of the peasantry.

Don't get me wrong, I think it is FANTASTIC that we are finally starting to invest in renewable energy, but do you really think the Queens offshore windmills are going to help the peasants have cheap electric heat in their hovel, or will it make sure she can keep the Bank of England computers humming, Windsor Castle and maybe a few other selected survivors with the juice of life?



I just want to point out that the last great die off during the Black Plague actually benefitted the peasantry in the long run-economically anyways. As the body count increased a true shortage in labour resulted that had many landlords and manors outbidding each other with wage increases and better rental terms. As well, there was an oversupply of goods due to mortality rates and the peasantry saw costs for basic neccessities drop through the floor.

I think a peak oil-die off scenario would be quite unappealing for the elites. Coupled with a much better educated and better equipped peasantry than during the 14th century it would be hard to see how the elites might be able to take advantage of this. It's my opinion that large pools of labour and large populations controlled by fear of quasi-malthusian disasters is far more appealling to the elite than a die off that will force them to work their own fields and factories.


I to am gradually changing from believing in die-off, global warming, wwIII threats as real actual threats and that they are actually veiled threats by the ruling elite that you better keep your head down and do what we say or we will unleash hell upon us.

Human labor, both physical and intellectual is one of the most valuable items in the world.

Basically they are saying you have a choice; let us control/own your labor or we will kill you.

Most people are too scared of the police, army, cia, mob, drug dealers, terrorists, neighbors, gangsters hoodlums to challenge this threat.

Imagine if 300 million citizens woke up from their TV coma and mentioned that they would be taking 'action' upon one senator for each 10 billion increase in the debt ceiling over $10 trillion.

Elaine Meinel Supkis

Go to Old Tucson Cafe in downtown Tucson! I hope it is there: real Sonoran food.

I should write about the Black Plague. It certainly changed the affairs of the survivors. They suddenly went from being extras to being necessities. Great Lords had to go forth and appease or appeal to the peasants. Leaders of peasants rose up out of the fertile soils.

One which I am very fond of was Joan of Arc. She was a typical post-plague peasant girl who had a much, much better diet and thus could lift a sword and shield and had the ability to ride a horse which was also better fed!

Peasant uprisings grew after the plague. They found they could fight back.

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